VA-01 Results

[Nutmeg]

Precincts Reporting: 55 of 209 (26.31%)

R - Robert J. "Rob" Wittman    7,655     64.56%
D - Philip R. Forgit                    4,008    33.80%
I - Lucky R. Narain                      183      1.54%
Write In                                        11      0.09%

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2007/C1B0FA46-55B2-4D62-AA16-B971618E0711/Unofficial/6_s.shtml

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Forgit is getting slaughtered. He's lost Prince William and is losing Newport News.

[Mr.Phips]

This one is over.  To even have a chance he had to win Prince William and Newport News by large margins. 

[Nutmeg]

Precincts Reporting: 81 of 209

R - Robert J. "Rob" Wittman   10,768    62.37%
D - Philip R. Forgit                     6,211    35.98%
I - Lucky R. Narain                       266      1.54%
Write In                                         17      0.09%

[MarkWarner08]

Positives for the GOP:

Despite low turnout conditions and several campaign visits from the current Governor and the extremely popular former Governor, Rob Wittman prevailed by the normal Republican margin in the district.

The Hillary attack mailer did not backfire and may have helped rally Wittman's base.

Negatives for the GOP:

The bankrupt NRCC spent nearly $100k on a blowout race; the DCCC spent $0.
Rob Wittman's open State House seat will likely be won by Democrat Pollard in a special election.

[Nutmeg]

With 2/3 of precincts reporting, the results are still basically the same, 63-35.

Are the OH-05 results online somewhere?

[MarkWarner08]

With 2/3 of precincts reporting, the results are still basically the same, 63-35.

Are the OH-05 results online somewhere?

http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pls/enr/f?p=152:10:0

[Mr.Phips]

Positives for the GOP:

Despite low turnout conditions and several campaign visits from the current Governor and the extremely popular former Governor, Rob Wittman prevailed by the normal Republican margin in the district.

The Hillary attack mailer did not backfire and may have helped rally Wittman's base.

Negatives for the GOP:

The bankrupt NRCC spent nearly $100k on a blowout race; the DCCC spent $0.
Rob Wittman's open State House seat will likely be won by Democrat Pollard in a special election.

This should be a wake up call to Democrats telling them that they should not nominate Hillary. 

[Sam Spade]

A 61%-38% margin is pretty decent for a special election here.  I fail to see how Hillary attack mailers would fail in this part of Virginia - who thought that?

[nini2287]

Oh well.  At least Forgit won my precinct by 20 points and the W&M precinct by 40 points.

[MarkWarner08]

A 61%-38% margin is pretty decent for a special election here.  I fail to see how Hillary attack mailers would fail in this part of Virginia - who thought that?

There were reports that some VA GOP operatives thought the flyers would backfire. Evidently, these fears were unfounded.

As Mr Phips has already noted, this special election adds a minor amount of momentum to the argument that nominating Hillary will create negative coattails for the down-ticked Democrats.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues and a Southerner who has transformed himself from the darling of the DLC to the toast of Daily Kos in just two years.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's how Forgit did compared to O'Donnell in 2006:

Overperformed
Middlesex: +0.9
Hampton: +4.2
Newport News: +4.7
King & Queen: +5.3
Mathews: +6.0
Fredericksburg: +6.1
King William: +6.3
Gloucester: +6.9
York: +8.8
Poquoson: +10.1
James City: +11.5
Williamsburg (Forgit's home city): +14.1

Underperformed
Spotsylvania: -1.8
King George: -2.1
Stafford: -2.6
Fauquier: -3.7
Essex: -4.6
Northumberland: -9.6
Lancaster: -9.7
Richmond (County): -11.8
Prince William: -12.0
Caroline: -13.1
Westmoreland (Wittman's home county): -19.3

Forgit's plan was to get the southern half of the district to vote in a bloc for the candidate who lived in the southern part of the district. It worked to some extent, as nearly all his gains are in the southern localities (every county/city from King & Queen south swung towards him), but the northern half of the district swung to Wittman (especially the Northern Neck, where Wittman is from). The only locality in the northern end of the district that swung to Forgit was Fredericksburg, which is a traditionally Democratic city.

[Mr.Phips]

A 61%-38% margin is pretty decent for a special election here.  I fail to see how Hillary attack mailers would fail in this part of Virginia - who thought that?

There were reports that some VA GOP operatives thought the flyers would backfire. Evidently, these fears were unfounded.

As Mr Phips has already noted, this special election adds a minor amount of momentum to the argument that nominating Hillary will create negative coattails for the down-ticked Democrats.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues and a Southerner who has transformed himself from the darling of the DLC to the toast of Daily Kos in just two years.

The difference with nominating Obama is that he does not turn out the right wing the way Hillary does.  Republicans have a much softer view of him than they do of Hillary. 

[Democratic Hawk]

2006: Davis (R) 62.96% / O'Donnell (D) 35.48%

2007: Wittman (R) 59.48% (-3.53) / Forgit (D) 38.49% (+3.01)

A 3.27% swing to the Democrats. Forgit carries Fredericksburg, Hampton and Williamsburg, but Democrats lose Prince William. The GOP makes no improvement on 2006 but, nevertheless, retains the district comfortably, as expected

Republicans pretty much dominate VA-01 in state legislative elections, though Democratic state senator Edd Houck's 17th District includes part of Spotsylvania, the bulk of which is in VA-01, and the bulk of Fredericksburg, which I gather, is entirely in VA-01

Dave

[Nutmeg]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

[Mr.Phips]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

And that cant be said with Hillary Clinton.  Her running against Huckabee would be a nightmare combination for Democrats. 

[memphis]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

And that cant be said with Hillary Clinton.  Her running against Huckabee would be a nightmare combination for Democrats. 

You can't be serious. Huckabee is a dream candidate for the Dems.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/index.html

[Sam Spade]

Huckabee may be the one serious contender Republican candidate who will likely perform worse than Romney (and no I don't base this on present poll numbers)

[MarkWarner08]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

And that cant be said with Hillary Clinton.  Her running against Huckabee would be a nightmare combination for Democrats. 

You can't be serious. Huckabee is a dream candidate for the Dems.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/index.html

Using national polling this far-out from the election is ill-advised. Does anyone expect Romney to lose to John Edwards, if such a matchup were to occur, by the staggering margin of 18%?
Once Romney starts advertising, his numbers will increase.

 Ironically, the strongest Democratic candidate for President would be a generic Southerner. The last one to run for President was John Edwards in 2004. If Edwards hadn't drank the populist kool-aid and jumped on the Hollywood bandwagon with Tim Robbins and other far-left actors, he'd likely be the most electable Democrat in the current field.

[HardRCafé]

If Edwards hadn't drank the populist kool-aid

Speaking of "if this were a grammar website."

[MarkWarner08]

If Edwards hadn't drank the populist kool-aid

Speaking of "if this were a grammar website."

I was mocking the wing-nuts on the right  who are probably used to hearing "drank," not the grammatically accurate past tense of drink.

[memphis]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

And that cant be said with Hillary Clinton.  Her running against Huckabee would be a nightmare combination for Democrats. 

You can't be serious. Huckabee is a dream candidate for the Dems.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/10/poll.head.to.head/index.html

Using national polling this far-out from the election is ill-advised.

I'll agree that polling this far out is not typically very useful. However, when a Republican candidate loses to every major Dem by double digits it is a significant sign that he's not a strong candidate.