Primary "Popular Vote"
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Primary "Popular Vote"
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Author Topic: Primary "Popular Vote"  (Read 1718 times)
Erc
Junior Chimp
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« on: December 07, 2007, 12:40:18 AM »
« edited: December 07, 2007, 12:42:02 AM by Erc »

Not that it means much of anything, but I found these interesting numbers online for total 'popular vote' for the candidates in primaries (nationwide):
[only those polling >1% listed]

Some of the total turnout numbers are interesting.  Bush (2000) has the highest primary vote total, followed by Clinton (1992) and Carter (1980)--although that says more about how long the contest lasted in many cases than anything else.

2004-D:
John Kerry: 61.0% (9.9 m)
John Edwards: 19.4%
Howard Dean: 5.6%
Dennis Kucinich: 3.8%
Wesley Clark: 3.4%
Al Sharpton: 2.3%
Joe Lieberman: 1.7%

2004-R:
George W. Bush: 98.0% (7.8 m)

2000-D:
Al Gore: 75.8% (10.6 m)
Bill Bradley: 20.0%
Lyndon LaRouche: 2.3%

2000-R:
George W. Bush: 62.0% (12.0 m)
John McCain: 31.2%
Alan Keyes: 5.1%

1996-D:
Bill Clinton: 89.0% (9.7 m)
Lyndon LaRouche: 5.5%

1996-R:
Bob Dole: 58.8% (9.0 m)
Pat Buchanan: 20.8%
Steve Forbes: 11.4%
Lamar Alexander: 3.2%
Alan Keyes: 3.0%

1992-D:
Bill Clinton: 52.0% (10.4 m)
Jerry Brown: 20.2%
Paul Tsongas: 18.1%
Bob Kerrey: 1.6%
Tom Harkin: 1.4%

1992-R:
George H.W. Bush: 72.8% (9.2 m)
Pat Buchanan: 23.0%

1988-D:
Michael Dukakis: 42.5% (9.9 m)
Jesse Jackson: 29.2%
Al Gore: 13.7%
Dick Gephardt: 6.0%
Paul Simon: 4.7%
Gary Hart: 1.8%

1988-R:
George H.W. Bush: 67.9% (8.3 m)
Bob Dole: 19.2%
Pat Robertson: 9.0%
Jack Kemp: 2.7%

1984-D:
Walter Mondale: 38.3% (7.0 m)
Gary Hart: 35.9%
Jesse Jackson: 18.1%
John Glenn: 3.4%
George McGovern: 1.9%

1984-R:
Ronald Reagan: 98.8% (6.4 m)

1980-D:
Jimmy Carter: 51.1% (10.0 m)
Ted Kennedy: 37.6%
Jerry Brown: 2.9%

1980-R:
Ronald Reagan: 59.8% (7.7 m)
George H.W. Bush: 23.8%
John Anderson: 12.2%
Howard Baker: 1.4%

1976-D:
Jimmy Carter: 39.3% (6.2 m)
Jerry Brown: 15.4%
George Wallace: 12.3%
Mo Udall: 10.2%
Scoop Jackson: 7.1%
Frank Church: 5.2%
Robert Byrd: 2.1%
Sargent Shriver: 1.9%
Ellen McCormack: 1.5%
Fred Harris: 1.5%

1976-R:
Gerald Ford: 53.3% (5.5 m)
Ronald Reagan: 45.9%

1972-D:
Hubert Humphrey: 25.8% (4.12 m)  [interesting]
George McGovern: 25.3% (4.05 m)
George Wallace: 23.5%
Ed Muskie: 11.5%
Eugene McCarthy: 3.5%
Scoop Jackson: 3.2%
Shirley Chisholm: 2.7%
Terry Sanford: 2.1%
John Lindsay: 1.2%   (the last Mayor of NY to make a serious run)

1972-R:
Richard Nixon: 86.8% (5.4 m)
John Ashbrook: 5.0%
Pete McCloskey: 2.1%

There's even data from before 1972, but considering the lack of primaries before then, it's a bit off:
1968-D: McCarthy followed by RFK, with LBJ in 4th and HHH in 8th
1968-R: Reagan places first (presumably because CA had a primary), followed by Nixon, with Rockefeller in 4th and Gene McCarthy (!) in 5th with 1%
1964-D: Pat Brown beats Johnson, again because of CA, presumably
1964-R: Goldwater followed by Rocky, with Lodge in 4th and Nixon in 8th (3%)
1960-D: JFK followed by Pat Brown, Humphrey in 4th, Johnson with the least of any candidates who got votes (behind Richard Nixon)
1960-R: Nixon with over 80% of the vote (and nearly 5m votes, not bad)
1956-D: Stevenson followed by Kefauver
1956-R: Ike (no serious opposition)
1952-D: Kefauver (65%), followed by Pat Brown, then Atty Gen. of CA with 10%.  Stevenson in 7th, behind Humphrey in 6th.  Truman in 9th, behind Ike in 8th.
1952-R: Taft, followed by Ike, followed by Warren, followed by Stassen.  Write-ins for MacArthur put him in 7th, with .6%
1948-D: Truman with 65%, followed by Julian (OH favorite son?)
1948-R: Warren, Stassen, Taft, Dewey.  No candidate over 1m.
1944-D: FDR plus the occasional favorite son
1944-R: MacArthur (!) in first, followed by Warren, Bricker, Dewey.  No candidate over 1m.
1940-D: FDR (>70%) followed by Garner (<10%)
1940-R: Dewey with just under 50% of the vote (and over 1m)
1936-D: FDR, no serious opposition
1936-R: William Borah (R-ID), followed by Landon, Knox, and Warren.
1932-D: FDR with just under 50%, Smith in 3rd
1932-R: Joseph France (R-MD) in first, Hoover in 2nd.

& a few more back to 1912.
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=2382&ShowPrimaries=Y
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Hashemite
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Atlas Superstar
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2007, 11:26:35 AM »

Looking at that page, interesting how Cobb and Badnarik both lost their primaries' PV!
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2007, 11:51:18 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2007, 11:58:45 AM by StateBoiler »

Looking at that page, interesting how Cobb and Badnarik both lost their primaries' PV!

Most third parties still have their candidates decided the old way, via convention.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/T04/Gr-Nom.phtml
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/T04/Li-Nom.phtml

Primaries and caucuses are pretty expensive unless the state is footing the bill.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2007, 04:23:18 PM »

Jeez, somebody voted for Eugene Debs !
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Boris
boris78
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2007, 05:10:01 PM »

1972 is the most surprising. Amazing that McGovern managed to get a 1st ballot victory at the convention.
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gorkay
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2007, 05:42:53 PM »

These vote totals are interesting in that, especially in more recent years, they give you a good indication of how close the race was, and a better indication than the actual delegate totals, which are often skewed because of non-proportional-representation rules and candidates dropping out early. (They don't work as well in earlier years because candidates usually only ran in selected primaries, sometimes didn't run in primaries at all, and often entered the race much later than would be possible today).

It's unfortunate that in more recent years the selection process has so favored a clear winner coming out of the primaries that in instances where the sentiment of the party was clearly divided, we got a first-ballot winner anyway. In 1972, 1976, 1984, and 1988, for example, the Democrats might have been better off had the delegate counts going in to the conventions better reflected the fact that no candidate had gotten over 50% of the primary vote. 
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2008, 05:44:27 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2008, 07:50:22 PM by Erc »

So far, this primary season, 22.6 million people have cast their ballots on the Democratic side, and 14.5 million people have cast their ballots on the Republican side.

Past elections, in terms of total turnout:

1988-D: 23.3 m
2008-D: 22.6 m
1992-D: 20.2 m
1980-D: 19.6 m
2000-R: 19.4 m
1984-D: 18.1 m
2004-D: 16.3 m
1972-D: 16.0 m
1976-D: 15.9 m
1996-R: 15.3 m
2008-R: 14.5 m
2000-D: 14.0 m
1980-R: 12.3 m
1992-R: 12.6 m
1988-R: 12.2 m
1996-D: 10.9 m
1976-R: 10.4 m


The Democratic race has had more people vote than any other election since 1988, and March 4th will definitely put it over the top.

The Republican race is still behind 2000 and 1996 (the two years when its race was more competitive than the Democrats'), though it will presumably pass 1996 soon enough.


In terms of individual candidates:
George W. Bush (2000): 12.0 m
Barack Obama (2008): 10.7 m
Bill Clinton (1992): 10.5 m
Hillary Clinton (2008): 10.4 m
Al Gore (2000): 10.4 m
Jimmy Carter (1980): 10.0 m
John Kerry (2004): 9.9 m
Michael Dukakis (1988): 9.9 m
Bill Clinton (1996): 9.7 m
George H.W. Bush (1992): 9.2 m
George W. Bush (2004): 7.9 m
Bob Dole (1996): 9.0 m
George H.W. Bush (1988): 8.3 m
Ted Kennedy (1980): 7.4 m
Walter Mondale (1984): 7.0 m
Jesse Jackson (1988): 6.8 m
Gary Hart (1984): 6.5 m
Ronald Reagan (1984): 6.5 m
Jimmy Carter (1976): 6.2 m
John McCain (2000): 6.1 m
John McCain (2008): 5.7m
Gerald Ford (1976): 5.5 m
Richard Nixon (1972): 5.4 m
Ronald Reagan (1976): 4.8 m
Mitt Romney (2008): 4.3 m
Hubert Humphrey (1972): 4.1 m
Jerry Brown (1992): 4.1 m

George McGovern (1972): 4.0 m
George Wallace (1972): 3.8 m
Paul Tsongas (1992): 3.7 m
Jesse Jackson (1984): 3.3 m
Al Gore (1988): 3.2 m
Pat Buchanan (1996): 3.2 m
John Edwards (2004): 3.2 m
George H.W. Bush (1980): 3.0m
Mike Huckabee (2008): 3.0m
Eugene McCarthy (1968): 2.9 m
Pat Buchanan (1992): 2.9 m
Bill Bradley (2000): 2.8 m

Obama has received more votes than any previous candidate, and looks set to break Bush's record.  Clinton is just behind, though still short of her husband's record on the Democratic side as of now.

Whoever loses on that side will break the record for "most votes cast for a losing candidate," by a mile, beating Ted Kennedy's 7.4 m.

McCain still hasn't gotten more votes than in his 2000 run, though that should change soon.

Romney has received more votes than any other Republican loser than Reagan and McCain...both of who went on to win their party's nomination the next time around.
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