Which of these states will first go Democrat?

[classical liberal]

VA is nowhere near as strong GOP as any of the other states listed.

AuH2O-

People do spend 2 hours driving to work.  Stafford, VA and Frederick, MD are 2 hour commutes.  Those areas have a lot of cheap land and are growing rapidly.

MD land is not cheaper than VA land.  In fact as a percentage of the total land, the opposite is true.

As for Montgomery County, from I-370 southward is developed about as much as it can be barring an expansion of the urban area across the beltway.  The northern half of the county is like the western half of Fairfax county: mostly undeveloped and growing numerically faster but proportionately slower than Stafford or Frederick.

[classical liberal]

My final prediction for VA is Bush +3.7:

Bush 51.4 - Kerry 47.7 - Badnarik 1.0

[classical liberal]

You mean in one election, or permanently?

Because none of those will turn into DNC land under the current 2 party arrangement.

Virginia is the most overrated 'trending' place in the US. The lefties in Northern Virginia are government employees and trial lawyers and the like, and there is a limit on how many of them can live there; i.e., most of the new growth is party-neutral.

Look at what happened in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado when middle and upper middle class Californians fled- those states picked up GOP voters. The high tech growth in N Virginia mostly attracts moderate Republicans.

The Western part of the state is trending GOP because of social issues. That will stem any residual growth in Arlington and parts of Fairfax. In the state legistlature, the GOP has gone from a minority party to holding 2/3 of the seats in about a decade. That's not a state trending hard to the Dems.

Mark Warner is similar to Evan Bayh. Democrats of that ilk can win anyway, just as Mitt Romney won in Mass.

Plus, um, doesn't this thread assume the nation is trending Dem? That's a pretty bad assumption if he you look at party registration.

You are correct that there is a limit to the expansion of the Democrats in Northern Virginia...they are almost exclusively Government employees and human vultures (lawyers). However, a Democratic administration would lead to the creation of MORE government jobs, which helps the Democrats. And as far as a "lack of space" for development, that's not entirely true. People are just moving farther and farther South on the I-95 corridor. I could not believe how different Fredericksburg (for example) was the last time I visited. This used to be a quasi-rural area, but not any longer, it looks like a cheap DC suburb now, especially in terms of the racial and ethnic makeup...ie...more Democratic voters.

Not my discussion on NOVA sprawl the other day.    And you're right, "trending" democrat is an overstatement.  Your true meter for VA trending comes from Richmond and Roanoke - the two main cities of VA which are not military/US Gov't related.  When their suburbs start flipping from Republican to Democrat, then you will see a trend.  NOVA and VA Beach/Norfolk are unreliable measures since they are prodominantly US Military/Gov't workers/Gov't contractors.

Chesterfield, VA was Bush +51% in 1988 and Bush +27 in 2000.
Henrico, VA was Bush +39 in 1988 and Bush +11 in 2000.
Richmond City, VA was Dukakis +14 in 1988 and Gore +38 in 2000.  
Colonial Heights, VA was Bush +58 in 1988 and Bush +42 in 2000.
Hopewell, VA was Bush +29 in 1988 and Bush +10 in 2000.
Petersburg, VA was Dukakis +31 in 1988 and Gore +61 in 2000.
Prince George, VA was Bush +33 in 1988 and Bush +21 in 2000.
Dinwiddie, VA was Bush +10 in 1988 and Bush +9 in 2000.
Powhatan, VA was Bush +46 in 1988 and Bush +41 in 2000.
Hanover, VA was Bush +55 in 1988 and Bush +38 in 2000.
Goochland, VA was Bush +26 in 1988 and Bush +23 in 2000.
New Kent, VA was Bush +34 in 1988 and Bush +29 in 2000.


That's quite a bit of movement towards the Democrats in the Richmond area.