Which of these states will first go Democrat? (user search)
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  Which of these states will first go Democrat? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which of these states will first go Democrat?  (Read 11377 times)
MarkDel
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Posts: 2,149


« on: August 04, 2004, 10:11:36 PM »

Definitely Virginia. The Northeast corner of Virginia (near DC) is painfully Democratic and becoming more Democratic with each election cycle.
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MarkDel
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,149


« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2004, 10:23:38 PM »

You mean in one election, or permanently?

Because none of those will turn into DNC land under the current 2 party arrangement.

Virginia is the most overrated 'trending' place in the US. The lefties in Northern Virginia are government employees and trial lawyers and the like, and there is a limit on how many of them can live there; i.e., most of the new growth is party-neutral.

Look at what happened in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado when middle and upper middle class Californians fled- those states picked up GOP voters. The high tech growth in N Virginia mostly attracts moderate Republicans.

The Western part of the state is trending GOP because of social issues. That will stem any residual growth in Arlington and parts of Fairfax. In the state legistlature, the GOP has gone from a minority party to holding 2/3 of the seats in about a decade. That's not a state trending hard to the Dems.

Mark Warner is similar to Evan Bayh. Democrats of that ilk can win anyway, just as Mitt Romney won in Mass.

Plus, um, doesn't this thread assume the nation is trending Dem? That's a pretty bad assumption if he you look at party registration.

You are correct that there is a limit to the expansion of the Democrats in Northern Virginia...they are almost exclusively Government employees and human vultures (lawyers). However, a Democratic administration would lead to the creation of MORE government jobs, which helps the Democrats. And as far as a "lack of space" for development, that's not entirely true. People are just moving farther and farther South on the I-95 corridor. I could not believe how different Fredericksburg (for example) was the last time I visited. This used to be a quasi-rural area, but not any longer, it looks like a cheap DC suburb now, especially in terms of the racial and ethnic makeup...ie...more Democratic voters.
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MarkDel
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,149


« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2004, 10:26:59 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2004, 10:28:46 PM by MarkDel »

If a guy like Evan Bayh runs, it's possible he could win Indiana.



Yep. Bayh as the Dem Presidential nominee - Dems win Indiana. Bayh as the Dem VP nominee - Indiana is a tossup.

Yeah, but can you really call Bayh a Democrat?

Beef,

No, Bayh is clearly not a Democrat who has a true place in the modern Democratic Party. He definitely should switch parties, along with other Senators like Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson.

Remember how Howard Dean said that he represents the "Democratic Wing" of the Democratic Party? Well, guys like Evan Bayh represent the "American Wing" of the Democratic Party....which means they have no home in a party which would allow American foreign policy to be determined by the world opinion, the United Nations and select European nations.
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