DCCC makes $150,000 media buy in OH-05

[Meeker]

And the DCCC, DNC and OPD are all sending in workers, plus Strickland and Brown have been out campaigning this weekend (something like 5 rallies and parades yesterday?) Looks like we've got a real race on our hands here.

[MarkWarner08]

And the DCCC, DNC and OPD are all sending in workers, plus Strickland and Brown have been out campaigning this weekend (something like 5 rallies and parades yesterday?) Looks like we've got a real race on our hands here.

Time for bets? Will OH-05 be closer than MA-05?

Residual tensions from the rough GOP primary (if Latta loses the Special, Tom Cole will have a "talk" with Pat Toomey, mobster style), stagnant job growth, and lingering fallout from Coingate could push this race into the toss-up column. This DCCC ad buy is sheer brilliance: if the NRCC spends $$$ and the Republican wins by a close margin, the Democrats will have succeeded in exacerbating the House GOP's already menacing financial problems, but if the Democrat wins this seat, more Republican incumbents will be cowed into retirement.

My prediction:

Latta: 53%
Weirauch: 47%

I still concur with my earlier comments that Weirauch is a less experienced version of Francine Busby. If this fourth-tier candidate is elected to Congress, expect her to be gone by 2010.

[memphis]

A Democrat hasn't represented this area since the 30s. It seems a very unlikely pickup, but I guess you never know.

[MarkWarner08]

A Democrat hasn't represented this area since the 30s. It seems a very unlikely pickup, but I guess you never know.

Democrats have had upward movement in this district since 2002.

Democratic performance over the last three cycles:

2006     general     
Robin Weirauch (D)    43.2%
 
2004    general
Robin Weirauch (D)     33%
 
2002    general    
Roger Anderson (D)    27.6%

[Meeker]

And Strickland and Brown both won the district last year.

I thought that at the start we had a relatively outside chance of taking this, but I wasn't fully convinced we couldn't. My gut says we still won't however. It'll be an interesting nine days though.


Edited: I wasn't thinking clearly or something when I first wrote this, forgive the changes...

[Padfoot]

The more money the Ohio GOP has to sink into this race the less money they'll have for races where they're already on the run like OH-1, OH-2, OH-14, OH-15, and OH-16.  If Democrats manage to flop just two of those seats Ohio will have a 9-9 delegation.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The DCCC "has purchased over $148,000 in television air time in Ohio for a negative campaign advertisement in next week’s special election to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-OH), indicating the cash-flush committee is eyeing its sights on scoring an upset in a conservative northwest Ohio district," according to The Politico.

"The late decision to devote financial resources into such a GOP-heavy seat suggests that they believe they have at least an outside chance at winning. The race features GOP state Rep. Bob Latta, who emerged from a nasty Republican primary last month against the Democratic nominee Robin Weirauch, who ran unsuccessfully for the seat in the last two elections."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/02/democrats_buy_negative_ads_in_oh5.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A relatively small buy, but who knows?  Low risk, but big rewards.

[Brittain33]

(if Latta loses the Special, Tom Cole will have a "talk" with Pat Toomey, mobster style)

If by some (absurdly low) chance Latta loses the special, Tom Cole won't have enough clout to have a "talk" with his own kids.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

OH-5
51.75% (R) Latta
47.78% (D) Weirauch
  0.47% Others

If there are no third parties running?, then:

52.12% (R) Latta
47.88% (D) Weirauch

[MarkWarner08]

A relatively small buy, but who knows?  Low risk, but big rewards.

Exactly. Remember when the DCCC took advantage of the debt-ridden NRCC's weak position by spending a million in TX-23.  Without that late infusion of funds, Ciro would've gone cero for two in 2006.

[Padfoot]

A relatively small buy, but who knows?  Low risk, but big rewards.

Exactly. Remember when the DCCC took advantage of the debt-ridden NRCC's weak position by spending a million in TX-23.  Without that late infusion of funds, Ciro would've gone cero for two in 2006.

They've also managed to scare the NRCC into spending $280,000 in what should be a safe district for them.  As of November 21 however, Latta still had twice the amount of cash that Weirauch had.  Strickland and Brown have both been popping up quite a bit to help Weirauch though, and considering they both won this district it should be an interesting race. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

CQ Politics notes the House Republican campaign committee has responded to the recent Democratic ad buy in OH-5 with a very large expenditure of their own.

"That the NRCC is spending its relatively limited financial resources in such a strongly Republican-leaning district suggests that House Republican campaign officials are not taking the race for granted — and that the contest may be closer than is suggested by the district’s political demographics and election history."

The Swing State Project has more information on the GOP cash infusion.

For additional information on the district, see CQ's excellent

backgrounder.http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/03/republicans_pump_more_money_into_oh5.html

[Padfoot]

The NRCC has now spent over three hundred thousand dollars here now.

[MarkWarner08]

The NRCC just made another ad buy. Their total spending in this district has now reached $370,000. Combined with their nearly $80,000 allocation in VA-01, the NRCC has spent almost half a million dollars defending two districts that Bush won in 2004 with around 60%.

Private Republican polling is said to indicate that Latta's lead is now a paltry three points. Since Democrats did extremely well last year in open seat House races in Ohio, expect even more cash to spent here in the coming days.

[Meeker]

In addition to the nearly $400,000 now spent here by the NRCC, the RNC is now having to bring in volunteers from Michigan

Lest we forget when noting how competitive this race appears to have become that this is a district that went 61% for Bush and hasn't elected a Democrat in 80 years. The fact that it's even gotten to this point is nearly a core meltdown for the Republicans.

Oh happy days

[MarkWarner08]

NRCC made yet another ad buy today. Their total for OH-05 now exceeds $400,000.

[Padfoot]

NRCC made yet another ad buy today. Their total for OH-05 now exceeds $400,000.

Jean Schmidt to the NRCC:

Stop wasting so much of our money in a safe seat!  I'm the one who really needs help!

[Adlai Stevenson]

"Republicans might be going in the red to keep Ohio’s 5th district that color in tomorrow’s special election," Roll Call reports. The NRCC "has poured 16 percent of its available cash on hand into the special election for a seat that should have been safe."

State Rep. Bob Latta (R) is running against Robin Weirauch (D) to replace the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who died in early September.

"Although most political professionals originally saw the race as safe for Republicans, the recent influx of cash and media attention has led Washington operatives to say it is much closer than they originally thought — and some Republicans say Latta’s campaign strategy is to blame."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/12/10/republicans_nervous_about_oh5_special_election.html