New Washington poll, Kerry leads big!

[Gustaf]

A new Washingotn poll shows Kerry leading Bush 55-43, a clear margin! 2 weeks ago it was 49-48...this shows the swing to Kerry and reflects the fact that the Dems under Kerry have a solid shot at the presidency.

[mattma43]

The problem with polls is that most of them use around 600 likely voters, and then most have a margin of error of 3 to 4%.

The only polling that matters will be in Nov.

[NHPolitico]

A new Washingotn poll shows Kerry leading Bush 55-43, a clear margin! 2 weeks ago it was 49-48...this shows the swing to Kerry and reflects the fact that the Dems under Kerry have a solid shot at the presidency.

Early match-up polls are generally garbage.

[Gustaf]

A new Washingotn poll shows Kerry leading Bush 55-43, a clear margin! 2 weeks ago it was 49-48...this shows the swing to Kerry and reflects the fact that the Dems under Kerry have a solid shot at the presidency.

Early match-up polls are generally garbage.

It's the change that's important, going from a tie to a 12 point lead.

[opebo]

Keep in mind this is Washington state which would never have gone to Bush.

[Gustaf]

Keep in mind this is Washington state which would never have gone to Bush.

Once again, it's the change and the margin that is important. Gore beat Bush 50-45 here, with Nader getting close to 5%, so a 55-43 result indicates that Kerry is doing pretty good.

[Dave from Michigan]

I'm getting sick of all these early polls, but maybe it's just because Bush is losing them all.

[Gustaf]

I'm getting sick of all these early polls, but maybe it's just because Bush is losing them all.

Lol...Bush is doing badly right now, but he will of course pick up later on.

[Gustaf]

In terms of victory margins, Washington was Gore's 12th highest margin, 9th worse, so it isn't that solidly Democratic. It's also the last state where Gore's margin was 5% or worse, next comes Vermont where Gore won by a 10% margin.

Washington was Gore's 15th best state in terms of vote percentage, the last state where he got above 50%.

It was Bush's 38th best state, so he did worse in 13 states.

All considered, it isn't really that Democratic, a 12 point lead here is still pretty good, twice as good as Gore's margin.

If you add the independents, Gore+Nader beat Bush+Buchanan 54-45, so a 55-43 result is still pretty good in that perspective.

[© tweed]

The poll gustaf sited in Washington was done by nARG and has a margin of error of 3.2%.

All these polls really man is that Kerry does have a fighting chance after all, really.

[zachman]

This is good news. Once most Americans conclude Bush is vincible and not that popular, he will start to collapse. Bush's intimidation is what made Bush so successful for so long.

[Gustaf]

The poll gustaf sited in Washington was done by nARG and has a margin of error of 3.2%.

All these polls really man is that Kerry does have a fighting chance after all, really.

Well, I wasn't suggesting otherwise...why do you bring up the MoE like that? All polls have MoEs of around 3%.

[M]

Is vincible a word? Better ask the semantics nerds over at theMerriam-Webster forum.

[Gustaf]

Is vincible a word? Better ask the semantics nerds over at theMerriam-Webster forum.

Well, invincible-vincible...makes sense, but then again, so did "endorsee"...

[© tweed]

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[StevenNick]

This poll means nothing.  John Kerry has been gotten more free positive news coverage in the last three weeks than George Bush could ever buy with his war chest.  Every two or three days the big news is another Kerry victory.  As soon as the love fest wears off and people start actually looking at John Kerry's record (which is abominable) and Bush starts campaigning, Kerry's numbers are going to sink like Atlantis.  Just think of the last time democrats ran a Massachusetts liberal against a Bush.  It wasn't exactly nailbiter, was it?

[opebo]

This poll means nothing.  John Kerry has been gotten more free positive news coverage in the last three weeks than George Bush could ever buy with his war chest.  Every two or three days the big news is another Kerry victory.  As soon as the love fest wears off and people start actually looking at John Kerry's record (which is abominable) and Bush starts campaigning, Kerry's numbers are going to sink like Atlantis.  Just think of the last time democrats ran a Massachusetts liberal against a Bush.  It wasn't exactly nailbiter, was it?

Just remember, Kerry will continue to get this kind of positive coverage for free right up till November - because the liberal press hates Bush.

[Nym90]

Yup, that's good, you just keep thinking that. I think that the Republicans should just blame the media, and not try to run a positive constructive campaign. Attack Kerry baselessly and then blame the media when they call you on your lies. Sounds like a good strategy to me.

[TheWildCard]

As many have said its just way too early in this race to take any stock in polls like that because theres going to be a lot of changes in momentum in the next 9 months. I'd say its gonna be a bumpy ride unless someone on one side or the other royaly messes up.

[Nym90]

Agreed. It is clearly way too early to put much stock in them, but they clearly don't show Bush in as commanding a position as many seem to believe.

[Gustaf]

I am not saying that this says much about the election in November, what it does show is that Kerry is doing very good right now, which means that the ball is in Bush' court right now. But a lot of things could, and will, happen in the coming months, and that will change things a lot. But there has been a lot of talk of how well Bush is doing in polls, etc and this shows that it isn't true anymore.