NJ-07: Mike Ferguson (R) will not seek re-election

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

[Jaggerjack]

Don't you guys ever get tired of going at each other's necks?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Don't you guys ever get tired of going at each other's necks?

Apparently not?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Holy hell, now this is a surprise—Mike Ferguson is calling it quits.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is good news for Frank Lautenberg, especially if Kean runs.  Barring a primary loss, this definitively keeps the seat for Lautenberg, even though he still would have beaten Kean anyway.

[Verily]

Holy hell, now this is a surprise—Mike Ferguson is calling it quits.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is good news for Frank Lautenberg, especially if Kean runs.  Barring a primary loss, this definitively keeps the seat for Lautenberg, even though he still would have beaten Kean anyway.

Kean's not running.

[Conan]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

I was writing that Evans-Novak is on crack if they think this district "leans Democratic" because of "Presidential coattails."

You probably get the idea that I think Republicans will win both seats because I do believe Republicans will win both seats*.  It's not that I don't think Democrats have a chance to win either.  It's just that I think they'll ultimately come up short.

*So long as Diane Allen is the nominee in NJ-03 and Republicans get a decent nominee in NJ-07.

[MarkWarner08]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

I was writing that Evans-Novak is on crack if they think this district "leans Democratic" because of "Presidential coattails."

You probably get the idea that I think Republicans will win both seats because I do believe Republicans will win both seats*.  It's not that I don't think Democrats have a chance to win either.  It's just that I think they'll ultimately come up short.

*So long as Diane Allen is the nominee in NJ-03 and Republicans get a decent nominee in NJ-07.

NJ-07 is Leans Democratic because of GOP recruitment failures. Nothing to do with coattails.

[Brittain33]

NJ-07 is Leans Democratic because of GOP recruitment failures. Nothing to do with coattails.

And the recruitment failures aren't just a cause of Republican problems, but an indicator of the environment in the district, which in a perfectly neutral year would undoubtedly lean Republican.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

I was writing that Evans-Novak is on crack if they think this district "leans Democratic" because of "Presidential coattails."

You probably get the idea that I think Republicans will win both seats because I do believe Republicans will win both seats*.  It's not that I don't think Democrats have a chance to win either.  It's just that I think they'll ultimately come up short.

*So long as Diane Allen is the nominee in NJ-03 and Republicans get a decent nominee in NJ-07.

NJ-07 is Leans Democratic because of GOP recruitment failures. Nothing to do with coattails.

The seat hasn't even been open for a week now and already it's a recruitment failure?

The GOP's problem here is that they have too many people interested in the seat, not too few.  If State Senator Leonard Lance runs, that's certainly a top tier recruitment.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?

Didn't you, just moments ago, gripe that I don't understand that this district is not 50/50?

And of course this will be a top race.  It's an open seat, isn't it?

It's just that it seems from your writings that this seat in no way can be won by the democrat.

I was writing that Evans-Novak is on crack if they think this district "leans Democratic" because of "Presidential coattails."

You probably get the idea that I think Republicans will win both seats because I do believe Republicans will win both seats*.  It's not that I don't think Democrats have a chance to win either.  It's just that I think they'll ultimately come up short.

*So long as Diane Allen is the nominee in NJ-03 and Republicans get a decent nominee in NJ-07.

If anyone other than Giuliani is the Republican nominee, Democrats will likely take both NJ-03 and NJ-07. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You know, thinking about this district a little more, it dawned on me that NJ-07 is the nexus of the New Jersey Republican Party.  Virtually every statewide candidate of the last 30 years has some sort of connection to it.

2006: Tom Kean Jr. — resident of NJ-07.
2005: Doug Forrester
2002: Doug Forrester
2001: Bret Schundler — grew up in NJ-07; considering running for office there.
2000: Bob Franks — former representative of NJ-07.
1997, 1993, 1990: Christie Whitman — resident of NJ-07, her daughter is considering a bid for the open seat.
1996: Dick Zimmer — resident of NJ-07 (the new NJ-07 is comprised of the old NJ-07 plus parts of the old NJ-12)
1994: G. Chuck Hayatain — represented a good chunk of the district in the State Assembly.
1989: Jim Courter — represented the forefather of the present day NJ-07, NJ-12 (and NJ-13).
1985, 1981: Tom Kean Sr. — currently lives in NJ-07 (Somerset County).
1984: Mary Mochary
1982: Millicent Fenwick — represented a significant part of the district (Somerset County).

I left off Pete Dawkins (1988 nominee for U.S. Senate) because I have no clue where he lived/lives.  His connection to New Jersey was always so minimal.

[MarkWarner08]

You know, thinking about this district a little more, it dawned on me that NJ-07 is the nexus of the New Jersey Republican Party.  Virtually every statewide candidate of the last 30 years has some sort of connection to it.

2006: Tom Kean Jr. — resident of NJ-07.
2005: Doug Forrester
2002: Doug Forrester
2001: Bret Schundler — grew up in NJ-07; considering running for office there.
2000: Bob Franks — former representative of NJ-07.
1997, 1993, 1990: Christie Whitman — resident of NJ-07, her daughter is considering a bid for the open seat.
1996: Dick Zimmer — resident of NJ-07 (the new NJ-07 is comprised of the old NJ-07 plus parts of the old NJ-12)
1994: G. Chuck Hayatain — represented a good chunk of the district in the State Assembly.
1989: Jim Courter — represented the forefather of the present day NJ-07, NJ-12 (and NJ-13).
1985, 1981: Tom Kean Sr. — currently lives in NJ-07 (Somerset County).
1984: Mary Mochary
1982: Millicent Fenwick — represented a significant part of the district (Somerset County).

I left off Pete Dawkins (1988 nominee for U.S. Senate) because I have no clue where he lived/lives.  His connection to New Jersey was always so minimal.

Will the locus of GOP power drift away in 2008? It now seems likely that the Democrats will pick up the gerrymandered (for incumbent-protection, of course) monstrosity called NJ-07.

From what I've read, Diane Allen is something of a mix between Nancy Johnson and Connie Morella. If she votes that way in Washington, I think she'd be more valuable to Democrats than a Rep. John Adler could ever be.

[Brittain33]

Today's update is that Lucky Sperm Club candidate #1, Finn Caspersen, has decided not to run and Lance is still on the sidelines.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So much for NJ-07 being OH-15.  Like I predicted, it looks like we're headed towards a multi-candidate primary.

Lance likely to run for Congress

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Whitman preparing to launch congressional bid

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Conan]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

Tom Kean and Lance are first tier. The rest really aren't. However, Lance is a quality candidate but not as safe as Kean would have been. If Lance is candidate then this is a toss up....anyone else then this is lean Stender.

[Brittain33]

So much for NJ-07 being OH-15.  Like I predicted, it looks like we're headed towards a multi-candidate primary.

Lance was the final top-tier candidate on the Republican side who hadn't yet ruled himself out. In the end, Sen. Stivers came through for OH-15; Lance may be that guy.

The member of the Lucky Ovum club, on the other hand, doesn't count any more than the Mennen heir or any one else stupid enough to self-fund, and her name is probably a net negative.

[Brittain33]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

I have nothing against him, but he may face a tough battle against anyone representing more than the 3% of the district's population that lives in Scotch Plains. At least he's a mayor and not a random freeholder or town councilman.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

I have nothing against him, but he may face a tough battle against anyone representing more than the 3% of the district's population that lives in Scotch Plains. At least he's a mayor and not a random freeholder or town councilman.

A freeholder actually represents more territory.  But yes, Marty Marks is not an especially strong candidate for the seat and will have a heck of a time distinguishing himself as anything more than "the dude from Union County."

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

Tom Kean and Lance are first tier. The rest really aren't. However, Lance is a quality candidate but not as safe as Kean would have been. If Lance is candidate then this is a toss up....anyone else then this is lean Stender.

I'd also guess that if self-funder Mennen runs and somehow winds up being the nominee, then the race would be a toss-up.  (With Lance, I'd put it at a slight lean to GOP hold.)

If it's someone like Marks v. Stender, then yeah, Linda's got the obvious edge.

[Conan]

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

I have nothing against him, but he may face a tough battle against anyone representing more than the 3% of the district's population that lives in Scotch Plains. At least he's a mayor and not a random freeholder or town councilman.

A freeholder actually represents more territory.  But yes, Marty Marks is not an especially strong candidate for the seat and will have a heck of a time distinguishing himself as anything more than "the dude from Union County."

NJ-07 gets its second officially declared candidate: Scotch Plains Mayor (and 2003 State Senate candidate) Marty Marks.

NJ-07 is the new OH-15. Or perhaps it's like a mirror of PA-15. Linda Stender absolutely should not get a free tide to Washington, but she now has a good chance of an easy ride there.

Um?  It's been a week.  There are still a slew of top-tier Republicans considering bids.

Tom Kean and Lance are first tier. The rest really aren't. However, Lance is a quality candidate but not as safe as Kean would have been. If Lance is candidate then this is a toss up....anyone else then this is lean Stender.

I'd also guess that if self-funder Mennen runs and somehow winds up being the nominee, then the race would be a toss-up.  (With Lance, I'd put it at a slight lean to GOP hold.)

If it's someone like Marks v. Stender, then yeah, Linda's got the obvious edge.

Lance can obviously win but I am justifying my prediction off of him being from Hunterdon...Stender didn't do so great there last year so she doesnt have much to lose, but with Lance being from Hunterdon, now Stender has a greater Union edge. Lance has never really had to work for an election if I am not mistaken.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lance can obviously win but I am justifying my prediction off of him being from Hunterdon...Stender didn't do so great there last year so she doesnt have much to lose, but with Lance being from Hunterdon, now Stender has a greater Union edge.

Stender actually did better than expected in Hunterdon (or is it that Ferguson did worse than expected?).  Forrester carried Hunterdon by 28 points in both his runs; Bush and Kean Jr. both carried it by over 20.  Bret Schundler won it by 23.

Mike Ferguson only carried Hunterdon last year by 16.8 points, a marked decrease from his 34.5 point win two years earlier.  Lance could get a 15,000 vote margin, improving on Ferguson's mere 5,700 vote margin there last year.

Honestly, talk of hometowns usually winds up being a zero sum game.  If Lance was from Union, he'd get an extra chunk of votes from Union.  If Lance was from Somerset, he'd get an extra chunk of votes from Somerset.  Since Lance is from Hunterdon, he'll get an extra chunk of votes from there, instead.

Lance has never really had to work for an election if I am not mistaken.

While it's true that most political victories in Hunterdon come from behind the scenes, Lance does have experience running a competitive race—the 1996 Primary for U.S. Congress.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PolitickerNJ is reporting that Len Lance is making calls and telling the Hunterdon heavies that he's in.

[MAS117]

It also seems that Christie Whitmans daughter will be entering the pack of R's soon as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It also seems that Christie Whitmans daughter will be entering the pack of R's soon as well.

I do feel bad for her.  She carries with her so much baggage by virtue of lineage alone that she couldn't conceivably win a GOP primary.