County That Most Closely Mirrors State Results?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Which county in your state usually gives the best indiciation of how the state will go?  In New Jersey, I think most residents would tend to agree with me that Bergen is definetly the county that forecasts overall state results best.  (Exception 2000)

[Gabu]

I don't have a state, but the closest is Washington, so I'll go with that.  The county that mirrors state results there closest depends on how far you go back.  If you include only results since 2000, it's Snohomish County.  For results since 1992, it's Pierce county.  For all recorded results in history, it's Thurston County.

[bullmoose88]

Bucks is pretty decent.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Closely mirrors how the state will go, or percentages?

Hennipen County has accurately predicted the presidential result since 1964.  It went for Nixon, despite the state going for Kennedy in 1960.

[memphis]

Polk, Anderson, or Dyer.

[Alcon]

Snohomish is probably currently the only choice.  Grays Harbor ends up that way on the federal level, but calling it representative of the state as a whole would be stupid.

[CultureKing]

I would probably go with either Kitsap or Snohomish, they are both on the liberal side but both have the possibility of going republican for certain candidates and issues.

[Smash255]

Westchester

[Gabu]

Snohomish is probably currently the only choice.  Grays Harbor ends up that way on the federal level, but calling it representative of the state as a whole would be stupid.

Actually, Snohomish is closer than Grays Harbor at the federal level too.

[Padfoot]

I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.

[Verily]

I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.

What about Stark County? Doesn't it have a bellwether reputation?

For New Jersey, I'd actually say Burlington more than Bergen. Bergen was for a while more Republican than the state as a whole (voting for Franks over Corzine in 2000, for example), and it is heavily influenced by which way the New York metro is swinging.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.

What about Stark County? Doesn't it have a bellwether reputation?

For New Jersey, I'd actually say Burlington more than Bergen. Bergen was for a while more Republican than the state as a whole (voting for Franks over Corzine in 2000, for example), and it is heavily influenced by which way the New York metro is swinging.

But don't think that Bergen's trend from Republican to Democrat on par with how the state is going have a huge influence?  I think the states numbers are greatly affected by Bergen because it is incredibly populated and can swing either way.

[Verily]

I'd say that Pike and Scioto counties are probably the best predictors for Ohio.

What about Stark County? Doesn't it have a bellwether reputation?

For New Jersey, I'd actually say Burlington more than Bergen. Bergen was for a while more Republican than the state as a whole (voting for Franks over Corzine in 2000, for example), and it is heavily influenced by which way the New York metro is swinging.

But don't think that Bergen's trend from Republican to Democrat on par with how the state is going have a huge influence?  I think the states numbers are greatly affected by Bergen because it is incredibly populated and can swing either way.

Bergen is large, but it isn't overwhelmingly large. We're not talking about Cook County, IL or LA County, CA here. Middlesex, Ocean, Burlington, Essex, etc. are also all very large; really only Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Cape May and Salem are "small" counties (and certainly not by national standards!).

Bergen is also not the only county in New Jersey which is marginal and can swing both ways, nor does it tend to swing substantially more than other counties. In fact, many counties swing much more than it and therefore have a larger effect. New Jersey's pro-Bush swing in 2004 was more or less entirely concentrated in Ocean County and more broadly in South Jersey, for example. (This is probably because Bush advertised almost exclusively in the Philly media market to cover PA, too, but that's beside the point.)

[Alcon]

Snohomish is probably currently the only choice.  Grays Harbor ends up that way on the federal level, but calling it representative of the state as a whole would be stupid.

Actually, Snohomish is closer than Grays Harbor at the federal level too.

I mean that Grays Harbor tends to be representative of the statewide trends in partisan elections (see the 2004 gubernatorial election, where Snoho was more GP) and federal races, too.  I wasn't necessarily meaning that it's numerically closer federally.  But, when it comes to certain other types of races, it isn't representative at all.

That's really only a distinction that a certain kind of political nerd is going to make, though. 

[minionofmidas]

Snohomish is probably currently the only choice.  Grays Harbor ends up that way on the federal level, but calling it representative of the state as a whole would be stupid.

Actually, Snohomish is closer than Grays Harbor at the federal level too.

I mean that Grays Harbor tends to be representative of the statewide trends in partisan elections (see the 2004 gubernatorial election, where Snoho was more GP) and federal races, too.  I wasn't necessarily meaning that it's numerically closer federally.  But, when it comes to certain other types of races, it isn't representative at all.

That's really only a distinction that a certain kind of political nerd is going to make, though. 

What "other types of races"? Initiatives? Or human races?

[Alcon]

What "other types of races"? Initiatives? Or human races?

There's still significant remnants (although increasingly fewer) of when it was a Democratic union stronghold.  It's gradually transitioning into a standard, western Washington blue-collar voting pattern.  Holding it as representative of Washington as a whole is pretty inaccurate, because while it may end up voting representatively on a federal level, the reasons for that happening are vastly different from most of the state.

It'd really have to be a suburban county like Snohomish.

[Jaggerjack]

Contra Costa, I guess...

[Hatman 🍁]

For Gabu: Whatever district Kamloops is in

[phk]

Probably a bay area suburb type like Contra Costa.

But there is probably no county that can capture 'California as a whole'.

[minionofmidas]

What "other types of races"? Initiatives? Or human races?

There's still significant remnants (although increasingly fewer) of when it was a Democratic union stronghold. 

Owen is from Mason County. (I actually checked a map to see whether his hometown was in the Chehalis River drainage. )

[Verily]

Probably a bay area suburb type like Contra Costa.

But there is probably no county that can capture 'California as a whole'.

Sacramento County comes pretty close, I think, though politically it is more marginal than California as a whole.

[MarkWarner08]

Oregon: Washington County.
Michigan: Oakland County or Macomb County

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Burlington is a bit too Republican leaning to serve as a good bellweather for New Jersey.  Bergen used to be too Republican, but it's much closer now to mirroring the statewide results as a whole.  (Corzine won it by 13.4, a bit better than his statewide; Menendez won it by 8.3, almost imperceptibly worse than his statewide.)  If I had to pick, I'd pick Bergen.

As a bonus, Bergen has a little bit of every kind of New Jersey town (save for the shore resort type): the northern super-rich commuter exurbs, the small towns like Ridgewood (which has a beautiful little "downtown" area), the ethnic Italian suburban-style towns of south Bergen, even the "big city" towns along the Hudson, like Fort Lee.  It's a great cross section.

I'll also throw Gloucester County into the mix.  Recently, Gloucester has been pretty close to approximating statewide results.  Corzine won it by 10.2, Kerry won it by 5.3, Menendez won it by 7.8, and Lautenberg won it by 13.4.

[Alcon]

What "other types of races"? Initiatives? Or human races?

There's still significant remnants (although increasingly fewer) of when it was a Democratic union stronghold.

Owen is from Mason County. (I actually checked a map to see whether his hometown was in the Chehalis River drainage. )

If you look at other races, including State Auditor (Sonntag, who is from Pierce), you will see the same pattern.

I doubt being from Shelton has much pull in Aberdeen.  I bet he did represent Grays Harbor, though, so that was a terrible example to give.

Owen's home town (Oakland, according to ridiculously intrusive public voting records) is on the Hood Canal.  The part of Mason County where the Chehalis River drains (if I know where that is) is pretty sparsely-populated and is in the east.

I'll definitely agree on one thing, though:  Grays Harbor County is more representative of Washington counties than it has any right to be.  That partially owes to it being one of those working-class, populist areas that aren't exactly socially right-wing by any stretch of the imagination.

...and, in the gubernatorial race of 2004, it was pretty damn close to state average.  You could make a good argument for Grays, even if demographically, Snohomish's representativeness blows it out of the water.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No constituency in Wales really mirrors election results (at any level) across the country. The funny thing is that this was the case even before the relative rise of political nationalism in the 1960's.
And obviously we don't even have any bellwethers as Labour always wins the most votes here and has done for generations. I suppose you could always declare Aberavon to be a bellwether, but that would be taking the piss a little bit.