Arizona Poll: Bush-48%, Kerry-45%

[lonestar]

Thats what this poll done by Market Solutions Group for the Arizona Republic said.  


Last time they did a poll, it showed the race Bush: 44%, Kerry: 41%.

No change in lead then.

Poll done July 30- August 1.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040803/latu102_1.html

[Bogart]

Kerry will not take Arizona.  It's one of those "in-play" states that I don't believe is really in play.

[jacob_101]

That's a smaller lead than I would have thought.  Could be good news for Kerry in the Southwest.

[angus]

Kerry should spend money in Arizona, if he can afford it, since it forces Bush to do the same.  I was surprised at the narrow gap also.  In June, when I was in Vegas I saw lots of nice patriotic Kerry commercials on TV.  I know a good bit of the state of AZ is in the LV radio/TV market, so they're seeing those uplifting Kerry ads too.  Bush may have to play some defense there if he doesn't want an upset.

[AuH2O]

McCain is campaigning for Bush, Bush has more money.

:. Kerry spending money on Arizona is idiotic.

This idea of "stretching" your opponent is a good idea IF YOU HAVE MORE MONEY. There is a reason Shrum always loses- you have to allocate resources wisely. Kerry should spend no money in any Southern state, save Florida, and no Southwestern state, save New Mexico and MAYBE Nevada.

It's just stupid. He needs the resources to battle in the Midwest.

[ATFFL]

Would love to get a look at the internals.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The polls have Kerry doing better in Arizona than Bush in Washington and Maine.

[Giant Saguaro]

Other polls have had Bush up consistently at 9 or 12 points. There is no situation. If I were Bush, of course, I wouldn't forget about it, but the conservative vote is not going to stay at home and they won't go for Kerry and there will be an excellent get-out-the vote drive in Maricopa and Yavapai counties. Nevada is more fo a concern and I really don't think there's a situation there yet either. When Kerry has to shift his financial resources elsewhere, Nevada will widen again for Bush.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Polls at the beginning of July had Bush up by 10-12.  But this is the third straight poll in AZ showing a close race.  Nevertheless, it stays in the "Likely Bush" column for now.