OH-Mason-Dixon: Voters frustrated, but GOP still strong

[Tender Branson]

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 54%
Not sure: 6%

The first (next) candidate is (read party & name). Would you at least consider voting for (read name), or would you not consider voting for him/her under any circumstances?
   
Would - Would Not

Republican Rudy Giuliani: 57% - 43%
Democrat Barack Obama: 56% - 44%
Republican John McCain: 56% - 44%
Republican Fred Thompson: 54% - 46%
Democrat John Edwards: 52% - 48%
Republican Mitt Romney: 51% - 49%
Democrat Hillary Clinton: 45% - 55%
Democrat Dennis Kucinich: 32% - 68%

Which of the two major parties - the Democrats or the Republicans -- do you trust more to handle the following issues (Order of statements rotated; final category combines "don't know" and "no difference")?

Dems - Reps - DK/ND

Future of Social Security and Medicare: 41% - 36% - 23%
Health care: 45% - 38% - 17%
Protecting the U.S. from terrorism: 30% - 50% - 20%
Improving the economy: 43% - 39% - 18%
Immigration: 35% - 40% - 25%
Control federal spending: 42% - 38% - 20%
Taxes: 40% - 42% - 18%
Energy:   49% - 34% - 17%
Education: 45% - 39% - 16%
The war in Iraq: 41% - 43% - 16%

Who was polled: 625 registered voters statewide
When: Nov. 5-7, 2007
Margin of error: plus or minus 4%
Conducted by: Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2007/11/plain_dealer_ohio_poll_novembe.html

[12th Doctor]

That's acctually very surprising... particularly Rudy's strength.  If Ohio is the state to win, looks like Rudy is the man to run.

[Tender Branson]

A big Ouch for Clinton:

Only 41% of Independent voters would consider voting for her in the GE, while 70% would consider McCain, 58% Giuliani, 54% Thompson and 52% Romney.

Even Obama gets 61% of Independents and Edwards 60% ...

[Eraserhead]

The answer is nominate Obama or Edwards so we can actually carry Ohio.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I personally don't believe that Clinton could only hit 45% in OH... c'mon people. Look at all the other polls... suddenly this is one to buy?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

All Clinton has going for her is that she's the frontrunner for the nomination.

[opebo]

I personally don't believe that Clinton could only hit 45% in OH... c'mon people. Look at all the other polls... suddenly this is one to buy?

Isn't it true that most people give a lot of credence to Mason-Dixon?

I have to say that Ohio is both the lynchpin and the weak link of our strategy in 2008.  How do we get there without it?

Oh yeah - I forgot!  We'll have the House:

[Tender Branson]

I personally don't believe that Clinton could only hit 45% in OH... c'mon people. Look at all the other polls... suddenly this is one to buy?

Isn't it true that most people give a lot of credence to Mason-Dixon?

I have to say that Ohio is both the lynchpin and the weak link of our strategy in 2008.  How do we get there without it?

Oh yeah - I forgot!  We'll have the House:

Substitute NV (where Clinton trails all Republicans) with AR (where she leads every Republican by 10%+) and its 270-268 and you don´t even need the House anymore ...

[Tender Branson]

The methodology of this poll:

Democrat - 35%
Republican - 41%
Independent - 24%

2004 OH Exit Poll:

Democrat - 35%
Republican - 40%
Independent - 25%

2006 OH Exit Poll:

Democrat - 40%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 23%

So, basically this poll has a more favorable methodology for Republicans than they had on Election Day 2004 ? Hard to believe ...

[Person Man]

Yeah, Mason-Dixon usually is waay to optimistic for the right.

[Umengus]

The methodology of this poll:

Democrat - 35%
Republican - 41%
Independent - 24%

2004 OH Exit Poll:

Democrat - 35%
Republican - 40%
Independent - 25%

2006 OH Exit Poll:

Democrat - 40%
Republican - 37%
Independent - 23%

So, basically this poll has a more favorable methodology for Republicans than they had on Election Day 2004 ? Hard to believe ...

2006 is irrelevant. Turnout will be different.

With so bad fav. ratings, clinton is in very bad shape.

[RJ]

I'm having a hard time buying Bush's 40-54 approval rating.

I personally don't believe that Clinton could only hit 45% in OH... c'mon people. Look at all the other polls... suddenly this is one to buy?

I have to say that Ohio is both the lynchpin and the weak link of our strategy in 2008.  How do we get there without it?

Oh, come on. As someone else pointed out, NV for AR=a win. What about VA and WV? Most polls in those 2 states indicate she's winning them as well. She's also competitive in OH, MO, and (believe it or not)FL. That's a lot of ground for the GOP to defend.

[Verily]

I personally don't believe that Clinton could only hit 45% in OH... c'mon people. Look at all the other polls... suddenly this is one to buy?

Exactly. I don't think she's been below 45% in any poll in Ohio. My guess is that the formulation of the question makes people more likely to say definitely not (for anyone).

[Alcon]

2006 is irrelevant. Turnout will be different.

With so bad fav. ratings, clinton is in very bad shape.

Any poll showing Ohio as more Republican in party affiliation than it was in 2004 should make you stop and think a little more.

I'm with Verily.  Even M-D has their 1-in-20.

[Person Man]

I think that Clinton can take the west before Ohio. I just dont know how Guilani could do well in Ohio. Think about it...maybe huckabee..

[Floridude]

The poll is probably a little bit biased in favor of the GOP, but I think it is telling that 58 percent of independent voters would consider voting for Giuliani, but only 41% of them for Hillary.  I dont really understand how they could intentionally try to poll right-leaning independents, so this part seems relatively accurate at face value. Honestly, polls this far out are mostly for speculation purposes.

[jokerman]

Forget the name; it's a poor poll.  In addition to the Presidential numbers both the Bush App. ratings and the Issue Ratins seem off.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Forget the name; it's a poor poll.  In addition to the Presidential numbers both the Bush App. ratings and the Issue Ratins seem off.

Correct. Bush is certainly not at 40% approval when he's well below that in every other Ohio poll in years.

[Person Man]

With Guiliani down by 6 nationwide, "We Don't Need Ohio" would be a funny campaign slogan.

[Padfoot]

Forget the name; it's a poor poll.  In addition to the Presidential numbers both the Bush App. ratings and the Issue Ratins seem off.

Correct. Bush is certainly not at 40% approval when he's well below that in every other Ohio poll in years.

there was just an article in the paper yesterday about Bush's record low approval ratings in Ohio.

[Person Man]

MD can still give you Kool-Aid polls. 

[minionofmidas]

The poll is probably a little bit biased in favor of the GOP, but I think it is telling that 58 percent of independent voters would consider voting for Giuliani, but only 41% of them for Hillary.  I dont really understand how they could intentionally try to poll right-leaning independents

Actually, that's probably part of what went wrong here. They didn't do it intentionally. They just did.

[Person Man]

Maybe they polled against to grain of voting patterns and population densities...

[Verily]

Maybe they polled against to grain of voting patterns and population densities...

Maybe they polled during the day and got a disproportionate number of stay-at-home moms. Who knows?

[Sam Spade]

lol @ the comments here on this thread.