University of Washington's The Washington Poll
Gregoire (D) 46.8%
Rossi (R) 42.4%
Bennett (L) 2.2%
http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/110807.ppt (Warning: PowerPoint)
Gregoire leads 50-38-2 in the Puget Sound, 48-46-2 in other parts of Western Washington, and trails 36-52-5 in Eastern Washington. Puget Sound is defined as King, Pierce, Snohomish and Thurston counties.
Among those who registered since 2004, Rossi leads 38-45-5. Voters who cast a ballot in the 2004-2006 Generals support Gregoire, 49-42-2.
Gregoire leads 85-5-3 among Democrats, and 43-41-4 among independents. She trails 6-86-0 among Republicans.
Gregoire trails only one age group, 18-29s, 41-42. She leads 30-44s by 45-44, 45-59s by 50-40, and 60+s by 48-42. Ruth Bennett receives 1 percent in all age groups other than 18-29s, where she receives 5 percent.
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Success rate for 2007 initiatives:
I-960 - Underestimated by 2 points
R-67 - Overestimated by 7 points
CA-8206 - Underestimated by 20 points (this was just margin tomfoolery)
CA-4204 - Overestimated by 34 points (and this ended up being competitive)
Proposition 1 - Overestimated by 8 points
I-25 (King County) - Underestimated by 6 points
So, uh, yeah, take that as you like.
