NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Unless there is a surprise coming in District 39, it looks like the GOP has broken their 16 year losing streak in the State Assembly.

[MAS117]

Unless there is a surprise coming in District 39, it looks like the GOP has broken their 16 year losing streak in the State Assembly.

MM, are you looking at these results in D7? I know its early, and it won't hold, but its surprising.

 State Senate 7th District
10/26 38.46%
Under Votes    136    
Over Votes    0    
          
     Vote Count    Percent
REP - Diane Allen    1,441    50.21%
DEM - Richard Dennison, Jr.    1,424    49.62%
Write-In    5    0.17%
Total    2,870    100.00%

[Conan]

I just heard that Ariyan is leading?

[Conan]

Asselta conceding ungraciously and very bitter....and no Sen, you wont be back.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like there were some serious Van Drew coattails if Milam won.  (Doesn't change things number-wise, of course.)

[Conan]

Ellen Karcher conceding.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As I predicted:

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Big pick up for Repubilcans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like we have GOP +2 in the Assembly (2, 8, 12; Dems win in 14); Dems +1 in the Senate (1, 2; GOP wins in 12).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Plus, a surprise:

A Stem Cell Research bond issue was defeated in New Jersey.

[Sam Spade]

Plus, a surprise:

A Stem Cell Research bond issue was defeated in New Jersey.

Imagine what would happen if all the spending the state approved were put to the voter test.  I'm not surprised.

(note: I was tempted to say crappy spending, but I held my tongue.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

[Conan]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

[MAS117]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

I do agree that the Stem Cell issue was taken for granted. I did not expect this to fail at all. I don't believe this failing means people don't want stem cell research, I just think they don't want to spend the money.

[Conan]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

I do agree that the Stem Cell issue was taken for granted. I did not expect this to fail at all. I don't believe this failing means people don't want stem cell research, I just think they don't want to spend the money.

Not to mention about 5 dem districts were unopposed....turnout probably in mid to upper 30s. This is a real blow to NJ becoming a stem cell research center though. I think it will be back on the ballot next year maybe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

I do agree that the Stem Cell issue was taken for granted. I did not expect this to fail at all. I don't believe this failing means people don't want stem cell research, I just think they don't want to spend the money.

Absolutely.  I support stem cell research, but New Jersey just is not in a fiscal position to float that kind of bond until it can get its fiscal house out of total chaos.

And the 1/2 cent relief referendum was defeated because it was a blatant gimmick.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ:

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[Conan]

PoliticsNJ:

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There was also very low turnout in Stender's district, so the margins are really insignificant.

[Conan]

Results:
Lost Bodine's Seat: Not really a loss, he was a republican vote.
Lost Whelan's Seat: -1
Lost Panter's Seat: -1
Gained Baroni's Seat: +1

Net real change for dems: -1
Quite well seeing how this came close to being the only time since the 1950s where the governors party didn't lose seats.

Senate:
Gained McCollough's Seat: +1
Gained Asselta's Seat: +1
Lost Karcher's Seat: -1

Net Gain of +1

New Senate margin: 23D-17R.
New Assembly margin: 48D-32R.

Ballot Questions:
Stem Cell Funding - Rejected
"Idiot or Insane Persons" (Voting Rights) - Passed
Green Acres - Passed
1% tax relief from Sales tax - rejected

Stem Cells - low voter turnout (thought to be in 30s) and general anti-debt and tax mood (which is rightfully so) defeated this...had Governor support

Green Acres - don't know why this passed but it's less than half of the cost of the stem cells. Also, Torricelli gave a nice explanation on politicsnj....."land costs less now that market is bad"

1/2 of 1% Tax relief jargon - don't know why this didnt pass. Most people probably thought it was a tax hike. The Governor was opposed to this.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I've been working to compile lists of municipal-level pickups.  It's still not complete, of course, though I'll be updating it throughout the day/week.

PASSAIC
Democrats swept the county-wide races with the kind of weak margins to be expected from an off year election.  Incumbent Pat Lepore (D) won the second Freeholder seat over Jerry Holt (R) by a 28,230 to 24,721 margin.

Republicans swept in Ringwood, capturing all four council seats up for grabs by landslide margins (and defeating three incumbent Democrats in the process).  Democrats picked up the open-seat mayorality of West Milford, but lost an incumbent councilor to give Republicans a 5–1 council majority.  Democrats also picked up one of two council seats in Wanaque by 51 votes.

CAMDEN
Dems easily held their countywide seats—no surprise there.  Democrats narrowly retained control of Cherry Hill, as Mayor Bernie Platt won with 53.6% of the vote; the town council races were even closer, but Democrats prevailed there as well.  Republicans picked up the open mayorality in Berlin Township by a 51–49 margin.  Republicans swept in Haddon Heights, where Republican Scott Alexander defeated incumbent Mayor Trish Sheilds by 58 to 42 percent.  Republicans also picked up a council seat in Lawnside.  Democrats fell a handful of votes short of picking up the mayorality of Stratford; the Republican won there 46.8 to 44.7%, but did win one of the two council seats up for grabs.  Democrats swept both council seats in Waterford, defeating incumbent Republican Dolores Toussaint.

In Winslow, party switching three-term Mayor Sue Ann Metzner (R → D) lost a close three-way race to party switcher Russell Bates (D → I) by 50 votes.

MERCER
Democrats held all countywide seats.  Republicans defeated two-term incumbent Glen Gilmore in Hamilton and swept the Council seats there.  Republicans picked up an open seat in Lawrence Township, reducing Democrats' majority there to 3-2.  No other seats appear to have changed hands.

SOMERSET
Republicans narrowly held their monopoly on the Freeholder board by 3 percentage points after Democrats successfully used a Parks Department scandal to throw the race into the toss-up column.  (Republicans had stronger margins in the other countywide races.)  Downballot, though, Republicans shined.  Republicans defeated three incumbent Dem Mayors: Drake in Hillsborough, Corradino in Manville, and Eickhorst in South Bound Brook. Republican Carey Pilato also picked up the open mayoral seat in Bound Brook. Republicans picked up council seats in South Bound Brook and North Plainfield. Republicans held the mayorality of heavily Democratic Franklin Township, and the Democratic trending towns of Somerville and Bridgewater.

[Also, here's something fun: perpetually evenly divided Green Brook gives us, yet again, another "every vote counts" election: Incumbent Jerry Searfoss (R) leads Edward J. Pfeifer (D) by a 660 - 659 margin.  In 2003, Melanie Marano (D) wound up winning by two votes.]

MIDDLESEX
Democrats extended their winning streak in countywide elections to 16 straight, easily winning 3 Freeholder seats, Sheriff, and Surrogate.  Republicans had more luck downballot, where they defeated incumbents and swept the council seats in Metuchen, Milltown, Sayreville, and South Plainfield.  Republicans also picked up the mayorality of South River and swept the council seats there.  All incumbent Democrats seeking re-election won in Old Bridge (including Mayor Phillips), but Republicans did pick up an open council seat.  Republicans also came suprisingly close to winning seats in Edison, where Sudhanshu Prasad beat out Aimee Szilagyi for the fourth seat, 6,251 to 5,647.

Democrats won a very close race in Cranbury: Incumbent Councilman Richard Stannard (D) appears to have won by 8 votes.

BURLINGTON
Burlington County was mostly good news for Republicans—they easily held a freeholder seat and Sheriff's office despite heavy Democratic investment there.  Democrats did pick up the mayorality of Burlington City and swept the council seats there. Republicans, meanwhile, picked up mayorality of Florence (open seat).

ATLANTIC
Republicans shined countywide in Atlantic, where Joe McDevitt (R) defeated incumbent Freeholder Joe Kelly (D), expanding the GOP majority on the Freeholder board to 6–3.  County Exec Levinson won a decisive 66–34 victory over Atlantic County Sheriff McGettigan after Norcross abandoned McGettigan's stumbling campaign.

Downballot, a mixed bag.  Democrats swept two open seats in Mullica Township, picked up council seats in Northfield and Somers Point, and gained a seat in Estell Manor because no Republican filed.  Republicans scored pickups in Absecon, picked up a seat in Egg Harbor City, and swept in Hamilton Township (ousting an incumbent) and Hammonton.

UNION
In Union County, Republicans defeated a pair of incumbents on the Cranford council, and defeated the council president of Garwood.  Republican Anthony Parenti defeated incumbent councilman William Populus in Fanwood.  Republicans swept in Kenilworth, capturing a 4-2 council majority and retaking the mayorality from Democrats.  The only incumbent Republicans to lose did so in Berkeley Heights, but to a pair of Independent candidates, not the Democrats (who finished third).  Countywide, the results were somewhat close—Patricia Quattrocchi (R) lost a relatively narrow Freeholder race to Rayland Van Blake (D), 30,604 to 26,857.

OCEAN
Republicans swept in the only major races in Ocean.  Republicans took the mayor's race in Brick and swept the council seats.  Republicans also took the mayor's race in Toms River and swept the council seats there, as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Green Acres - don't know why this passed but it less than half of the cost of the stem cells. Also, Torricelli gave a nice explanation on politicsnj....."land costs less now that market is bad"

If I was voting in NJ, I'd have voted yes on Green Acres but no on Stem Cells.  I support both in theory, but if you don't spend the money to buy up the open space now, it's gone forever.  That's worth borrowing for.

Investing (more) money into stem cell research is a good cause, but New Jersey just can't afford it right now.

[MAS117]

Steve Sweeney elected Majority Leader!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Just to put a little more into what I have been saying today as I return to comment on these elections while I have free time.  The most surprising performance is that of Michael Guarino (who won by 750 in Rutherford).  He got 43% of the vote while being outspent 500-1.  This showing should make Republicans recruit a top-flight candidate such as Cassella or Roseman to take on the embattled Paul Sarlo.  Bernadette's lose has to be the greatest thing I have ever experienced, none of us expected a victory like this.  In fact, most expected Frazier to hold onto his council seat.

[Conan]

Just to put a little more into what I have been saying today as I return to comment on these elections while I have free time.  The most surprising performance is that of Michael Guarino (who won by 750 in Rutherford).  He got 43% of the vote while being outspent 500-1.  This showing should make Republicans recruit a top-flight candidate such as Cassella or Roseman to take on the embattled Paul Sarlo.  Bernadette's lose has to be the greatest thing I have ever experienced, none of us expected a victory like this.  In fact, most expected Frazier to hold onto his council seat.

Sarlo isn't in any trouble.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Just to put a little more into what I have been saying today as I return to comment on these elections while I have free time.  The most surprising performance is that of Michael Guarino (who won by 750 in Rutherford).  He got 43% of the vote while being outspent 500-1.  This showing should make Republicans recruit a top-flight candidate such as Cassella or Roseman to take on the embattled Paul Sarlo.  Bernadette's lose has to be the greatest thing I have ever experienced, none of us expected a victory like this.  In fact, most expected Frazier to hold onto his council seat.

Sarlo isn't in any trouble.

Seems to be that EnCap has doomed every politician from the area except for Cassella.  And we are not talking small loses we are talking McPherson's thrashing, Guida's huge loss, and Pittman's defeat in the primary.  There is no reason to believe if a candidate is seen as extreme, is outspent 500-1, and had to wrote in on the primary can get 43% that a better candidate couldn't win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sarlo didn't campaign at all.  He used his money to try and elect Democrats elsewhere in the state, because he thought he'd have a shot at Majority Leader if he did that.  (Oops.)

Republicans could have beat him in 2007 had they run an under-the-radar campaign, with an explosive last minute ad buy on New York television.  Of course, Republicans didn't have the money to do that, and Sarlo won by 14.

Had Sarlo actively worked to win re-election, he'd have easily been able to win by more than 20.