Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007

[bgwah]

Hmm, this is an interesting election. I supposes 48% in 2003 to 54% today isn't really that huge of a jump considering the demographic changes in the state. New Orleans may have been close, but Jindal only went from 32% to 35%. Of course this is a primary and not a run-off, but Jindal was still the only Republican candidate on the ballot, wasn't he? It would only appear close because of the Democratic vote being split. Although New Orleans losing such a huge chunk of its population means it has much less influence than it did before.

Anyway, my condolences to any sane Louisianans out there. You guys now have an evil man as your Governor.

How is Jindal an "evil man"? He may be a conservative, but he's of the "competent, managerial" breed.

When a politician opposes freedom and liberty to the degree Jindal does, I consider them evil.

[Cubby]

How is Jindal an "evil man"? He may be a conservative, but he's of the "competent, managerial" breed.

Jindal is an extremely right wing Republican. I wouldn't call him evil, only because every time someone expresses an unusual opinion on this forum lately, he is attacked by 25 different posters who claim he is "weird" or "racist". These are the same people who claim not to like "political correctness".

[Democratic Hawk]

Now that Jindal's in we'll soon see whether he actually does "walk on water" and lives up to all the hype

Dave

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I predict, sadly:

Jindal - 53
Boasso - 18
Georges - 15
Campbell - 9
Rest - 5

My only comfort is that I did fairly well on my prediction. I was only off by 1% for Jindal, Boasso, and Georges, and 3% for Campbell.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

These are the percentages in Orleans Parish for each statewide office:

Governor

Georges (I) - 36.1
Jindal (R) - 34.6
Boasso (D) - 20.2
Campbell (D) - 7.6

Lt. Governor

Landrieu (D) - 89.1
Kershaw (R) - 5.1
Beard (R) - 3.6

Attorney General

Caldwell (D) - 48.6
Foti (D) - 36.7
Alexander (R) - 14.7

Secretary of State

Dardenne (R) - 52.3
Wooley (D) - 41.5

Agriculture Commissioner

Odom (D) - 52.1
Strain (R) - 32.8
Carter (R) - 10.1
Johnson (R) - 5.0

Insurance Commissioner

Donelon (R) - 51.2
Crowley (D) - 41.3
Lansden (R) - 4.9
Schneider-Kneale (R) - 2.6

Weird results. Did Georges win any other Parishes? And 85-90% for Landrieu and the two Democrats running for Attorney General, but majorities for two incumbent Republicans. Also, there were about 8k people (out of 76k total) who voted for Governor but left Sec. of State, Ag. Comm'r, and Ins. Comm'r blank.

[minionofmidas]

My prediction:

Jindal 53%
Boasso 19%
Campbell 12%
Georges 11%
Other 5%

If Jindal were to pull over 55%, Landrieu should really watch out, imho.

Actual numbers:
Jindal 54%
Boasso 17%
Georges 14%
Campbell 13%
Other 2%

Pretty good, I must say, for a prediction with few polls (pats himself on back  ).  Overall, looking at the results, Jindal made his biggest gains in northern Baptist Louisiana - places around Shreveport (and Jena too).  The Orleans gains were not as huge for Jindal as these gains (he ran about 5% above where he did last time - and he ran ahead of your typical Republican here even last time)

That's because New Orleans knew exactly what to expect of Kathleen Blanco, and largely stayed at home.

[minionofmidas]

here's the Attorney General Map, Caldwell in red, Foti in green

That is a weird set of results.

[jimrtex]

This means, going into the November 6 races with Kentucky and Mississippi, the Democrats hold a 27-23 advantage in governor's mansions including the Louisiana flip.  However, Kentucky will probably flip while Mississippi stays GOP, bringing the Democrats back to a 28-22 advantage.  It will probably end up being 1-for-1 deal.  You give me Louisiana and I'll give you Kentucky.  Sounds like a Monopoly game of the states or something.

Mississippi and Louisana must be the two dark purple properties just after you pass GO.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This means, going into the November 6 races with Kentucky and Mississippi, the Democrats hold a 27-23 advantage in governor's mansions including the Louisiana flip.  However, Kentucky will probably flip while Mississippi stays GOP, bringing the Democrats back to a 28-22 advantage.  It will probably end up being 1-for-1 deal.  You give me Louisiana and I'll give you Kentucky.  Sounds like a Monopoly game of the states or something.

Mississippi and Louisana must be the two dark purple properties just after you pass GO.

I actually think they, along with Alabama, are more like the light blues before you get to the Jail (Oriental, Vermont, and Connecticut Aves.)  I think Mediterranean and Baltic (the dark purples) are the Dakotas.

[jimrtex]

You know who your mother's fourth cousin's husband is!?

My mother's grandfather and grandmother were 2nd cousins.  This makes my mother her own 4th cousin, and her husband, my father.

[CavanaughPark]

I've put up an interesting analysis of this alleged election on my political blog:

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com/2007/10/what-republicans-actually-picked-up.html

Interesting? You're a nutjob.

[Kevinstat]

Could someone tell me what the popular image was of the political ideologies of the three candidates for Attorney General?  Did Caldwell run to Forti's right or his left?  Or was Forti just corrupt and that's why he had a credible intra-party challenger?  Or was he not corrupt enough?  (This is Louisiana we're talking about .)  Was Alexander generally perceived as more conservative than the two Democrats?  What were their positions on tort reform, a big issue for state AGs (or As G for Attorneys General?) in some states?

Looking to the runoff election, how high a percentage of Forti supporters do people think will vote for Caldwell in the runoff?  Will a fair amount not show up for the runoff election?  In the interest of what might of been, who would Alexander supporters (or Caldwell supporters, as a swing of 0.9% from Caldwell to Alexander and 1.4% from Caldwell to Forti would have resulted in Caldwell's elimination) have likely supported in the runoff if their favored candidate had been eliminated?

I'll appreciate whatever answers to these questions people can provide.  And differing points of view and bickering are welcome!

[Kevinstat]

Whenever I've said Forti in this thread, I've meant Foti obviously.

[Lief 🗽]

So, does this mean that the Democratic base in New Orleans was hurt as badly as many thought?

[minionofmidas]

Whenever I've said Forti in this thread, I've meant Foti obviously.

No you didn't. Stop pretending. You obviously were talking about a completely different race in a completely different state that included a candidate named Forti.

[sethm0]

here's the Attorney General Map, Caldwell in red, Foti in green

That is a weird set of results.

 It's not that weird. Alexander did well in the Republican strongholds of the state - Northern LA, Lafayette and St. Tammany. It seems that Foti held onto the Cajun (south central LA) strongholds and Caldwell picked up most of the rest.

 The main issue in the race was Foti's handling of the Katrina nursing home case. I guess it became a big media circus and he sort of mishandled it. I imagine that those who did stick with Foti will mostly go to Caldwell - I predict Caldwell wins it with about 58-42.

[jimrtex]

When are Louisiana state legislative elections held, BTW? 

The Republicans appear to have a longshot at the Louisiana House of Representatives.  Before the election it appeared to be 43-61-1.  So far, where a representative was elected, or where both runoff candidates are from the same party, it is 42-45-1, with 4 D-to-R switches, and 2 R-to-D switches.

In the 17 remaining inter-party contests, 14 seats are currently held by Democrats.  In RD 55 in Lafourche Parish, an independent received 41% of the vote to two Democrats with 25%.  

In 7 other districts, the Republican candidate came in first, but multiple Democrat candidates shared a majority of the vote.  Some of these districts may be cases where the Democrats are strong enough to treat the election as a Democratic primary with the single Republican candidate strong enough to make the runoff.  But at least some of those who voted for losing Democrats could switch to the Republican leader, or stay home.  Someone whose goal is to simply finish first among the Democrats, and then cruise to victory based on party line voting, may say something that is not forgotten or forgiven.

In 3 other districts, multiple Republican candidates received a majority of the vote, but the Democrat candidate came in first.  These are probably the mostly likely cases for pickups.

And in only 3 districts did the Democrat finish first, and the Democratic candidates received a majority of the vote.

There are only 3 currently GOP-held districts where there is an inter-party runoff.  In one, the Republican narrowly missed a majority (49%), and the GOP vote was 70%.

In the other two, the GOP candidate came first, but there was a majority for the Democrats.

[Kevinstat]

So I take it there are no inter-party contests where the incumbent party's candidate neither came in first yesterday nor had his or her party receive a majority of the district's vote.  That would be the case most likely to result in a pickup where a intra-party contest still exists.  Still, I agree with your analysis of what in general are the most likely cases for pickups among those cases that exist this year.

[Corrected "intra-party" to "inter-party"]

[Torie]

Here is a map I managed to concoct of the Jindal parish percentages, using a website I found somewhere that enabled me to color the Parishes.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, who was the liberal candidate in this election?

[Sam Spade]

Incidentally, who was the liberal candidate in this election?

There was a liberal candidate in this election?  I hear they don't fair too well in Louisiana.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There was a liberal candidate in this election?  I hear they don't fair too well in Louisiana.

In a state with 5,000,000 people, surely they could find one.

[Brandon H]

Also of interest to me personally, my mother's forth cousin's husband is in first place in a 6 way house election and (barring a big shift) will be in a run-off next month.

You know who your mother's fourth cousin's husband is!?

Yeah. I also have a former Lt. Governor and either Lewis or Clark (I can never remember which) in my ancestry.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Incidentally, who was the liberal candidate in this election?

Foster Campbell, although he was basically a one-issue candidate: abolishing the state income tax (for both individuals and businesses) and replacing it with a tax on oil/gas refining.

[jimrtex]

So I take it there are no intra-party contests where the incumbent party's candidate neither came in first yesterday nor had his or her party receive a majority of the district's vote.  That would be the case most likely to result in a pickup where a intra-party contest still exists.  Still, I agree with your analysis of what in general are the most likely cases for pickups among those cases that exist this year.

I take it you meant inter-party rather than intra-party.

You are correct, with the exception of the one contest betwen an independent and a Democrat.  That is a Democrat seat, where the two Democrats polled 49.7%, and the Independent and a Republican together had 50.3%.  Incidentally there is a 2-vote separation for 2nd place between the two Democrats 3369 to 3367.

The splits on Democrat held seats, where the GOP candidate finished first, but the Dems had a majority wereL

44 (2 GOP):57 (3 Dems);  35:65(3); 31:69(3); 41:59(2); 31:69(3); 30:71(3); 29:69(5)

So these are longshots unless a losing Democrat endorses the Republican, and convinces his supporters to follow, or a lot of his supporters stay home.

Where the GOP had a majority, but the Democrat finished first:

60 (2):41(1); 51(2):49(1); 55(3):32(2):I(14)

I'd count the 1st and 3rd as pretty sure GOP pickups.

So let's assume the GOP gets lucky in one other RD, and picks up all 3 here, and the Independent wins; that would make it GOP 49; Dem 54; Ind 2.