Which ticket would win this Presidential race?
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  Which ticket would win this Presidential race?
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Author Topic: Which ticket would win this Presidential race?  (Read 2158 times)
defe07
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« on: September 27, 2007, 07:27:40 AM »

Giuliani/Huckabee (R)
Clinton/Richardson (D)
Sanford/Paul (L)
Kucinich/Nader (G)
Tancredo/Baldwin (C)

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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2007, 07:35:19 AM »



Clinton/Richardson for the win.
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defe07
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« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2007, 08:57:08 AM »


Do you have any popular vote totals per ticket?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2007, 05:57:29 PM »

Giuliani/Huckabee (R): 38% PV, 192 EV
Clinton/Richardson (D): 43% PV, 335 EV
Sanford/Paul (L): 10% PV, 8 EV
Kucinich/Nader (G): 8% PV, 3 EV
Tancredo/Baldwin (C): 1% PV, 0 EV
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
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« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2007, 06:01:45 PM »

There is no way Ron Paul would win SC. Colorado I can buy but not SC.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2007, 06:06:42 PM »

What's with these scenarios in which Kentucky goes Dem. before NC and even CO?  Why in the world would that happen?  Those states have changed since the '90s, when that happened with Clinton.
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defe07
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« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2007, 06:18:27 PM »

Hmm... I wonder how the third parties did in states won by the Democrats or Republicans? Anybody might have an idea?

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2007, 06:59:37 PM »

There is no way Ron Paul would win SC. Colorado I can buy but not SC.
Paul doesn't win SC, Sanford does.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2007, 10:54:40 AM »


If Hillary can take Arkansas, I don't see why Rudy couldn't carry a northeastern state like PA, NH, or NJ. Of the three, I think PA is his most likely pickup given NH's strong leftward trend.

I think Nevada is possible for her with Richardson, but at this point, I'm not expecting Hillary to win the popular vote, so she probably won't carry Nevada.  Also, I think Iowa may be trending GOP again, mainly b/c it shifted Gore to Bush, but of course you have to flip a coin for IA and WI.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2007, 11:29:51 AM »



Clinton/Richardson - 304
Giuliani/Huckabee - 234

Popular vote.

Clinton/Richardson - 45.5%
Giuliani/Huckabee - 42.1%
Sanford/Paul - 6.4%
Kucinich/Nader - 4.1%
Tancredo/Baldwin - 1.9%

The right-wing hurt Giuliani a hell of a lot more than the left hurt Hillary.

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Verily
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2007, 11:42:12 AM »


If Hillary can take Arkansas, I don't see why Rudy couldn't carry a northeastern state like PA, NH, or NJ. Of the three, I think PA is his most likely pickup given NH's strong leftward trend.

I think Nevada is possible for her with Richardson, but at this point, I'm not expecting Hillary to win the popular vote, so she probably won't carry Nevada.  Also, I think Iowa may be trending GOP again, mainly b/c it shifted Gore to Bush, but of course you have to flip a coin for IA and WI.

Arkansas polling has shown Clinton about 15 points ahead of Giuliani there. The best Giuliani can boast in any of the three states you mentioned is a statistical tie.
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2007, 02:57:44 AM »

Clinton/Richardson would win this Presidential race. As Polnut said, the right-wing would hurt Rudy more than the left wing.
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Governor PiT
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2007, 12:30:09 AM »

Sanford/Paul but switched.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2007, 12:38:52 AM »

Clinton/Richardson would win.
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defe07
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2007, 12:20:28 AM »

I really think the GP, CP and LP can win electoral votes.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2007, 07:04:17 AM »

Where are the electoral votes going to be won?


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Harry
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2007, 09:43:48 PM »

Kucinich would never betray the Democratic Party by running a 3rd party campaign!

Nonetheless, Clinton would win a 1 v 1 matchup with Guiliani anyway, and with Sanford as a 3rd party candidate siphoning off votes, Clinton wins in a landslide.
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defe07
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2007, 11:05:40 PM »

Electoral Votes for 3rd parties

GP: VT(D), AK(R), RI(D), ME CD-2(D), NJ(D), WA(D) (37 EV)
LP: SC(R), AZ(R), NH(D), GA(R), CT(D), NE CD-3(R), CO(D), OR(D) (62 EV)
CP: WY(R), ID(R), ND(R), OK(R), AL(R) (26 EV)

Electoral Vote

Rep: 170
Dem: 243
Grn: 37
Lib: 62
Con: 26

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defe07
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2007, 08:53:05 PM »

Here's my final prediction:



Clinton (Light Red) 242 EV
Giuliani (Light Blue) 166 EV
Sanford (Gray) 61 EV
Tancredo (Dark Blue) 32 EV
Kucinich (Dark Red) 37 EV

Well, what do you all think? Do you agree with this map?

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Kushahontas
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« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2007, 09:50:33 PM »

wait a minute...am i seeing right? alaska supporting a leftist dem? jersey supporting kucinich over giuliani or clinton? tancredo taking mississippi?
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2007, 01:51:59 AM »

It's not really a surprise that most people who have never been to North Dakota have no clue what it's really like. Of course I've met people before who believed it was impossible to get cable TV in ND.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2007, 08:34:38 PM »

Here's my final prediction:



Clinton (Light Red) 242 EV
Giuliani (Light Blue) 166 EV
Sanford (Gray) 61 EV
Tancredo (Dark Blue) 32 EV
Kucinich (Dark Red) 37 EV

Well, what do you all think? Do you agree with this map?



What in the world makes you think the Green, Libertarian, or Constitutionalist parties could win any electoral votes?

In 1992, Ross Perot had name recognition, a party behind him, had untold millions to spend on the campaign, participated in the Presidential debates, came up with 19% of the popular vote, and ended up with 0 electoral votes.

Sanford, Tancredo, and Kucinich put together do not have the name recognition Perot had, and the three of them put together have only a fraction of Perot's campaign budget.

Combined, they would not get anywhere near 19% of the popular vote, more like 4% of the popular vote all combined.

I cannot see any of them winning any electoral votes at all, to be realistic about it.

Besides, I believe Sanford will be on the Republican Vice Presidential short list.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2007, 09:01:29 PM »


but why the hell would Sanford run as a Libertarian?
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2007, 10:27:56 PM »


Another good question, he wouldn't run as a Libertarian, but I was basing my question on the fact that defe07 had named Sanford as the Libertarian candidate in his scenario.
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defe07
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« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2007, 03:05:26 PM »


Another good question, he wouldn't run as a Libertarian, but I was basing my question on the fact that defe07 had named Sanford as the Libertarian candidate in his scenario.

The reason why I decided to put Sanford as the Libertarian candidate was because it reminded me of Gary Johnson's frustrated Presidential run in 04. Both are libertarian Republicans so that's my main reason. Just for the record: if the Libertarian ticket were Johnson/Sanford, would they do well? Smiley
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