Are FOX's polls rigged/slanted?

[© tweed]

I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of Fox's polls.  Kerry is shown leading Bush in the ARG, Newsweek, Quinnipiac, and Gallup polls, yet FOX has Bush leadin Kerry.  Does FOX slant their polling?

[© tweed]

Lets look at the job ratings for Bush:

FOX: 53%
Gallup: 49%
Quinnipiac: 48%
Newsweek: 49%

[Gustaf]

I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of Fox's polls.  Kerry is shown leading Bush in the ARG, Newsweek, Quinnipiac, and Gallup polls, yet FOX has Bush leadin Kerry.  Does FOX slant their polling?

Of course they are, though some polls might be biased in the other direction. Many pollsters are biased, in all countries.

[© tweed]

I'll keep updating this thread as polls come out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Faux News' polls are pretty awfull, but compared to the blatent propaganda that is the british polling industry...

[agcatter]

Fox uses an outfit called Opinion Dynamics.  In the 2000 election their final poll before the election had Gore and Bush exactly tied.  In other words, along with Zogby (Gore up by 1 point) they were the most accurate with the final tally being Gore by .5%.  Not too shabby.

There are other polls around.  Rasmussen polls daily, and their poll out yesterday has Bush up 4 (same as Opinion Dynamics).  I followed Rasmussen last Presidential election (Portrait of America Poll) and they had Bush up 7 over Gore the day before the election - an embarrasing miss and Rasmussen was forced to completely overhaul their methodology to get ready for this election cycle.  They made a big deal out of the overhaul and have pretty much been in line with Gallup and the others so far.  (btw, they had Kerry up 3 the day Gallup had Kerry up 7 which was within the margin of error)  They couldn't afford a replay of 2000 and still have any credibility with clients.

Let's keep two things in mind here.  Polls change daily and a Gallup Poll taken a week before (as is the case with the last one taken) is going to show a different result from one taken in the last two to three days.  Same snapshot but a different window in time.  Then there is the sample - are we talking likely voters or registered voters.  Newsweek uses registered voters.  Democrats do better among that group than they do likely voters in all polls.

It's complex and there are a lot of factors.  Fact is, the two campaigns have their own internal polls which they keep very close to the vest and which they feel confident with.  They have to.  Their campaigns depend on the accuracy of those polls.

All that said, polls are going to swing pretty wildly at this point based on which campaign is in the news simply because 70% of the electorate has NOT focused in yet.  We're all political junkies on this board and sometimes we forget that the election is nine months out and, outside of us, no one is even remotely following the campaign like we are.

[Gustaf]

Fox uses an outfit called Opinion Dynamics.  In the 2000 election their final poll before the election had Gore and Bush exactly tied.  In other words, along with Zogby (Gore up by 1 point) they were the most accurate with the final tally being Gore by .5%.  Not too shabby.

There are other polls around.  Rasmussen polls daily, and their poll out yesterday has Bush up 4 (same as Opinion Dynamics).  I followed Rasmussen last Presidential election (Portrait of America Poll) and they had Bush up 7 over Gore the day before the election - an embarrasing miss and Rasmussen was forced to completely overhaul their methodology to get ready for this election cycle.  They made a big deal out of the overhaul and have pretty much been in line with Gallup and the others so far.  (btw, they had Kerry up 3 the day Gallup had Kerry up 7 which was within the margin of error)  They couldn't afford a replay of 2000 and still have any credibility with clients.

Let's keep two things in mind here.  Polls change daily and a Gallup Poll taken a week before (as is the case with the last one taken) is going to show a different result from one taken in the last two to three days.  Same snapshot but a different window in time.  Then there is the sample - are we talking likely voters or registered voters.  Newsweek uses registered voters.  Democrats do better among that group than they do likely voters in all polls.

It's complex and there are a lot of factors.  Fact is, the two campaigns have their own internal polls which they keep very close to the vest and which they feel confident with.  They have to.  Their campaigns depend on the accuracy of those polls.

All that said, polls are going to swing pretty wildly at this point based on which campaign is in the news simply because 70% of the electorate has NOT focused in yet.  We're all political junkies on this board and sometimes we forget that the election is nine months out and, outside of us, no one is even remotely following the campaign like we are.

People also forget MoEs. if the margin of error is 3%, it usually means 3% A SIDE, so that the MoE for the margin is actually 6%. That gives a lot of room for swings.

[opebo]

I seriously doubt Fox's polls are any more slanted to the Right than the other polls are likely slanted to the Left.  Probably averaging Fox with all the leftists polls would get a more accurate reading - in other words right now an almost perfect tie.
Probably where we'll be more or less through the campaign and on election day.  I've said it before and I'll say it again - thank god for the EC!

[agcatter]

Rasmussen overnite tracking poll today had the race even - a pickup of three  points for Kerry over yesterday's poll.  Eb and flow, eb and flow.  None of this stuff means jack nine months out.

[© tweed]

I seriously doubt Fox's polls are any more slanted to the Right than the other polls are likely slanted to the Left.  Probably averaging Fox with all the leftists polls would get a more accurate reading - in other words right now an almost perfect tie.
Probably where we'll be more or less through the campaign and on election day.  I've said it before and I'll say it again - thank god for the EC!

So Newsweek, Gallup, ARG, Quinnipiac, CNN,  and USA Today are all liberal organizations?

[agcatter]

No, just Newsweek, CNN, and USA Today.

[Dave from Michigan]

It's not any more bias that any other poll, since no poll is 100% unbiased

[© tweed]

No, just Newsweek, CNN, and USA Today.

CNN isn't.  Remember their cheering of Gulf War I?

[Gustaf]

No, just Newsweek, CNN, and USA Today.

CNN isn't.  Remember their cheering of Gulf War I?

The funny thing is that I think many of the European lefties view CNN as having a pro-America bias...

[12th Doctor]

No, just Newsweek, CNN, and USA Today.

CNN isn't.  Remember their cheering of Gulf War I?

The funny thing is that I think many of the European lefties view CNN as having a pro-America bias...

There have been numerous studies conducted by independent organizations that show that CNN and USAToday (CNN on paper) do have at least a slight liberal bias.  They did that by tracking how may times certain words were used and such.

Anyway, the thing with polls is that they can be so easily manipulated just by changing the way the question is asked.  I know people who have been polled by organizations like CNN/Gallup and they will tell you that the way the question is presented when they are called is not the way that it is presented when the data is released.  Perfect example, my aunt was called by CNN/Gallup and asked if she supported the war in Iraq "even if it meant 10,000's of US casulties".  She said no.  When the data for the date she was polled appeared in USAToday, the question was changed to "Do you support military action in Iraq".

[Gustaf]

No, just Newsweek, CNN, and USA Today.

CNN isn't.  Remember their cheering of Gulf War I?

The funny thing is that I think many of the European lefties view CNN as having a pro-America bias...

There have been numerous studies conducted by independent organizations that show that CNN and USAToday (CNN on paper) do have at least a slight liberal bias.  They did that by tracking how may times certain words were used and such.

Anyway, the thing with polls is that they can be so easily manipulated just by changing the way the question is asked.  I know people who have been polled by organizations like CNN/Gallup and they will tell you that the way the question is presented when they are called is not the way that it is presented when the data is released.  Perfect example, my aunt was called by CNN/Gallup and asked if she supported the war in Iraq "even if it meant 10,000's of US casulties".  She said no.  When the data for the date she was polled appeared in USAToday, the question was changed to "Do you support military action in Iraq".

Yes, they sometimes test out different questions to see which one works the best. I remember a poll that was made in Sweden before our referendum where the question ran something like this:

"If a no meant that we would have to stay out of monetary union for at least 10 more years, and a yes meant that we would join at some point in the future when it was deemed to be beneficial for us, would you then vote yes or no to replacing the krona with the euro?"

The normal question was "Would you vote yes or no to replacing the krona with the euro?"

[agcatter]

That says more about Europe than anything else.  Must be comparing it to the BBC.

CNN is not biased toward the liberal side?  It's obvious liberal bias is the only reason FOX became such a success.

[Gustaf]

That says more about Europe than anything else.  Must be comparing it to the BBC.

CNN is not biased toward the liberal side?  It's obvious liberal bias is the only reason FOX became such a success.

My point was that all politically active people think the media is biased against them. I think that media is generally schizofrenic and like to pick on people, so media bias swing back and firth a lot.

[Nym90]

The media is biased, sure. They are biased in favor of ratings.

They are businesses, and thus have a bias in favor of making money, and nothing else. They will put out whatever they feel people want to hear.

Gallup's polls have been very accurate throughout the years. Since 1936 their final preelection poll has only been off by an average of 2.2% and since 1960 only by 1.5%.

[Gustaf]

The media is biased, sure. They are biased in favor of ratings.

They are businesses, and thus have a bias in favor of making money, and nothing else. They will put out whatever they feel people want to hear.

Gallup's polls have been very accurate throughout the years. Since 1936 their final preelection poll has only been off by an average of 2.2% and since 1960 only by 1.5%.

'

Didn't they do that freak pioneer poll in the 30s that involved only people who had telephones and predicted someone (Hoover, or Landon) to beat Roosvelt?

[Nym90]

No, that wasn't Gallup, it was a magazine of some sort (which I think went out of business shortly thereafter, lol). They polled only people with phones and predicted a landslide win for Landon in 1936.

Gallup had Roosevelt up 56-44 in their final poll, which still underestimated the FDR win quite a bit (he won 61-37) but at least they were a lot more accurate than anybody else that year.

[agcatter]

Yeah.  I remember reading about that poll.  It was indeed skewed because it was only the more affluent Republicans who had phones.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  I remember reading about that poll.  It was indeed skewed because it was only the more affluent Republicans who had phones.

I believe it was the Literary Digest.  Their polling method was mailing out postcards en masse and asking them to be mailed back with the candidate that one supported.  This method correctly predicted election outcomes at least three elections before 1936.  In 1936 they got over 2 million cards and based on that predicted a landslide for Landon.   This method of polling tends to be biased in favor of the upper classes and in a an election polarized around class it was way wrong.  

[PD]

I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of Fox's polls.  Kerry is shown leading Bush in the ARG, Newsweek, Quinnipiac, and Gallup polls, yet FOX has Bush leadin Kerry.  Does FOX slant their polling?

Stop attacking FOX. It's the only alternative to all your nasty, liberal, propaganistic news networks. Such as: ABC, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, CBS, and CNN.

[Nation]

Would you care to enlighten us on how all of the major news networks except your precious FOX are liberal propaganda?