Meanwhile in Belgium...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

N-VA?

[Hash]

N-VA?

New Flemish Alliance. A less openly racist and fascist Flemish nationalist party which was associated with the CDV until 2008. They seem to be coalescing a majority of the nationalist vote around them, to the detriment of Vlaams Belang and Dedecker's ephemeral outfit.

[freek]

N-VA?

Flemish conservative separatists, formed in 2001. Apart from their separatism and Flemish nationalism it is an ordinary centre right party.

In 2001, the former Volksunie (People's Union), which used to be the major Flemish Nationalist party, but was overshadowed by Vlaams Blok/Belang, split in a progressive party  (Spirit, the remains of that party merged into Groen! in 2009) and a conservative party, N-VA.

N-VA party leader Bart De Wever is at the moment the most popular politician in Vlaanderen. Apart from VB en LDD, the party seems to attract votes from CD&V.

[freek]

And now there is a date for the Belgian (Federal) Chamber and Senate elections: the 13th of June it is.

[Insula Dei]

So, allow me to give you a round-up of recent developments.

First of, Leterme is out, as it is party president Marianne Thyssen who will be spearheading the CD&V's campaign. She also managed to get Rik Torfs, professor of eclessial law and major celebrity in Flanders, to feature on her senate list.
Party slogan: "Nooit opgeven." ('Never give up')
 
The N-VA also dropped a bombshell by taking in Siegfried Bracke, who is (or: was) the most important political journalist in Flanders since at least the late nineties. Bracke, who was widely speculated to be a socialist, and Torfs, widely thought to be a liberal, also copresented a political talkshow in the run-up to last years regionals.
Party Slogan: "Nu durven veranderen" ('Now dare to change"), oddly reminiscent of the social-Liberals 2009 one: "Durven veranderen. Nu zeker!" (Dare to change. Especially now!) which in turn was a rip-off of the SP.a's "Nu zeker"

The greens got the former head of Amnesty International Flanders, Eva Brems, to be one of their faces in this campaign.
In a funny aside note: Brems, Torfs, and (N-VA leader) Bart De Wever all are known best  for their performance in the wildly popular 'the smartest human alive'-show on the public broadcaster.

There also is a lot ado about several Flemish Ministers (both SP.a and N-VA)  being on lists while it is known they'll remain at the regional level.

Over in Wallonia the regional Olive Tree Coalition seems to be quite popular and everyone is blaming the MR's Didier Reynders and his FDF hand puppet Maingain (the Balls to Reynders Brown, bur minus Browns competence). Neither of which is new.

Expect huge gains for the N-VA, status quo for greens,VB and liberals, mild losses for CD&V and SP.a and an LDD whipe-out in Flanders.
Gains for Ecolo, PS and CDh vote holding up, and the MR coming pretty close to coming in 3rd in Wallonia.
Maingains obstructionism might see the MR remain huge in Brussels.

Soooo, thats gonna be one dysfunctional government.

[Insula Dei]

I don't know whether anyone is interested in this but I'm going to continue keeping you informed.

Ever since having been dumped by his own party Leterme seems to have decided to go on a media spree. After having been invisible since his return last November, he's made headlines at several occasions last week. He started by assuring the Catholic Workers Organisations that pensions would not be a prey to cuts, sparking a bidding war with the socialists. And today he openly criticised Merkel for 'spreading panic about the euro.'

The parties also have kickstarted their campaigns and presented their slogans.

In Flanders a lack of imagination is triumphant as Open VLD drops: "Een nieuwe start" ('A fresh start'), to be joined by the SP.a's "We moeten weer vooruit" ('We must move onwards again').
The VB sticks to what it knows best: 'Vlamingen 1st' (sic.) ('Flemings 1st'). The greens have a go at: "Positieve energie" ('Positive energy') and are already preparing for a next to invisible campaign.

In Wallonia incomprehensability seems to be very much à la mode as the MR proudly presents: "La garantie du respect"  ("the guarantee of respect") which I don't pretend to understand. Ecolo isn't about to allow those liberals to get away with something that clear and decides that for sheer enigma :"Nous restons ouvert pendant les transformations" ('We'll stay open during the transformations") can't be beaten.
PS and CDh are less interesting: "Un pays stable, des emplois durables" and "L'Union fait la Force"

In other news the communist PVDA+ managed to gather some 15.000 signatures in just under 2 weeks and will participate in the election. The speed of gathering signatures as well as the speed at which the party grows seems to be signalling that it is slowly getting ready to fill the populist leftwing void in Belgian politics.

[minionofmidas]

No change to the constituency design?

[Insula Dei]

Well, some judges demanded that the election would be hold on the old constituency design rather then in the new provincial format, but they were told to back of by the the president of the Supreme Court (more accurately: its belgian equivalent), who also caused Leterme's dowfall back in 2008.

Some communities in the famed BHV-area also refuse to organise the election but in that case it's the Home Office that jumps in.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

After 3 months last attempt to make a govt has failed, yesterday for the 1st time a Wallon high politician spoke of 'envisaging the end of Belgium'.

http://www.france24.com/en/20100906-belgium-walloon-flemish-francophone-onkelinx-separation

Really wonder about the outcome of this...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Belgium will not last 10 years. I expect them to agree to partition in 5.

[minionofmidas]

...then spent the next 100 years postponing partition because they cant agree who shall get Halle-Vilvoorde.

[bgwah]

...then spent the next 100 years postponing partition because they cant agree who shall get Halle-Vilvoorde.

It can join the city-state of Brussels!

[Хahar 🤔]

...then spent the next 100 years postponing partition because they cant agree who shall get Halle-Vilvoorde.

They should just leave all of Brabant as a separate country so we can have these problems in miniature.

[minionofmidas]

...then spent the next 100 years postponing partition because they cant agree who shall get Halle-Vilvoorde.

It can join the city-state of Brussels!

That would, in practice, be the same damn thing as giving it to Wallonia. To Flemish Nationalists, it is a point of religious dogma that Brussels is wholly surrounded by Flemish country... but alas, it is not. That is the whole damn point of the current eternal crisis.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...then spent the next 100 years postponing partition because they cant agree who shall get Halle-Vilvoorde.

They should just leave all of Brabant as a separate country so we can have these problems in miniature.

Yeah, I often thought about it, but won't gonna happen. If secession that would be the borders of the 3 regions as they are I would think, and thus no more technical institutional problems. Bruxelles and Wallonie being in the same entity, and in case of secession, I would think they could keep the name Belgium to refer to this new entity. The fact that Bruxelles could become a city alone wouldn't be likely so far imo. An eventual secession would also be challenge for EU which tells nothing institutionally about it so far.

Anyhow, after having listened to Belgian analysts (well, Francophone ones), the fact that someone that high in Francophone politicians spoke about, in French words 'envisager la fin de la Belgique', words by words 'envisaging the end of Belgium' is something psychologically important. So far, Francophones were seen as those who wanted to save Belgium and who were ready to make a lot of concessions for it, and who proposed it to Flemish, but they refused all and used the argument of secession to always gain more and more. So, that statement from Francophones can be interpreted, and factually does this effect, as something which tells Flemish 'secession? banco, we're ready', in order to make them realize that 1st Francophones can be nice at concessions but there some limits, and overall to make them feel that speaking of secession couldn't eternally be used as a mean to gain more and more, but could become very concrete, and then to see how they are about it.

In other words, now it will be interesting to see if Flemish try to make concessions, which could pass by moderated Flemish giving less support to De Wever if they don't want a secession, or if they stay united and continue to face Francophones with secession.

In the latter case, days of Belgium would be counted. And those analysts spoke of the fact that more and more politicians in French speaking Belgium begin to envisage a future without Flemish.