ABC News/ Washington Post Poll

[lonestar]

Registered Voters:

Bush- 49%
Kerry- 48%

Three Way

Bush- 48%
Kerry- 46%
Nader- 3%

Some interesting results in this poll.  Since the last one, Bush is doing better in almost all areas.  He has the lead in most political and personal issues.  The independent vote is basically split, while Bush is doing better among Democrats than Kerry is among Republicans.  He is also getting 52% of the Catholic vote.

The poll was done July 22-25.
The sample was 34/33/29 (D/R/I)

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_poll_040726.html

[NHPolitico]

Bush getting 52% of the white Catholic vote is stellar. Those are Reagan Democrats. That's a big jump from 2000-- and Kerry is a Catholic, but Gore wasn't!

[Keystone Phil]

Bush getting 52% of the white Catholic vote is stellar. Those are Reagan Democrats. That's a big jump from 2000-- and Kerry is a Catholic, but Gore wasn't!

I knew Bush would do well with Catholic votes and come November he will win it. Kerry being Catholic has nothing to do with it. He's a big liberal and not in step with most Catholics. Others have told me that Bush would only get 43% of the Catholic vote. Yeah right. This proves Bush is strong, even going into the Democratic convention.

[agcatter]

The sample seems to be about 2% or so light on the Dems so it's probably a tad skewed toward the Republicans.  I know Rasmussen uses a 39 - 35 split Dems to Republicans.  Not saying that is the correct breakdown or anything, but it seems that there maybe should be about a three point edge in the sample towards the Dems.

Do you happen to know what the partisan breakdown was on the last poll taken?

Still, pretty good news for Bush if he is holding his own with Independents.

[ATFFL]

For registered voters it is not terrible.  There is some debate on exactly how split the nation is in terms of voter registration.  Las I heard from ABC was they thought the Republicans had eliminated the gap and the parties were even.  Most of the change was from southern democrats switching to the party they actually voted for regularly.  

In a way, that would be the end of Reconstruction.

[© tweed]

Bush getting 52% of the white Catholic vote is stellar. Those are Reagan Democrats. That's a big jump from 2000-- and Kerry is a Catholic, but Gore wasn't!

You know how small that sub-group is?

[agcatter]

No doubt you need to be careful with subgroups in any poll.

[Floridude]

Let's see.  My standard analysis.  According to statistics, about 25% of American citizens are Catholic.   There were 909 registered voters in  the poll.  That is about 225 catholics polled.  As I am no expert on polling sizes, this means little to me.  Hopefully someone else can interpret this.

[Lunar]

Let's see.  My standard analysis.  According to statistics, about 25% of American citizens are Catholic.   There were 909 registered voters in  the poll.  That is about 225 catholics polled.  As I am no expert on polling sizes, this means little to me.  Hopefully someone else can interpret this.

28% of Americans are Catholic, which means about 255 people should the poll be perfect.  That would  mean about +/- 6.1% error.

[MODU]

I find this one interesting:

Trust to Handle Terrorism (Group - WOMEN):

Now:
Bush - 46% (+6% since June)
Kerry - 43% (-13% since June)

Bush has always done poorly when it comes to the women vote in most categories.  To see this kind of change (though this is just one poll and doesn't reflect a true trend) shows the possibility of shifting support to Bush, and might lead to cementing his lead overall.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Probably the most important point brought out by the poll is the 'atribute' of 'consistency.'

Bush had strong marks for consistency (64%) while Kerry's were terrible (24%).

This also impacted the 'stong leader' attribute.

For Kerry to gain in consistency he would lose in 'shared values,' as the positions he has taken as a Senator were out of step with most voters.

I believe I posted about four months ago, that this would be one of Kerry's major weaknesses.

[The Vorlon]

Here is a full breakout of this poll.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/957a1ConventionOpener.pdf

Party ID in this poll was

34% Dem
33% GOP

Quite close to where is should be.

The shift among women IS interesting, as is the one among Catholics.

Catholic sample is too small for validity, need to watch other polls for (possible) confirmation.

Women have firmed up for Bush in other polls as well.

[ATFFL]

Welcome back, Vorlon.

[lonestar]

Glad to see you, Vorlon.

[The Vorlon]

Nice to be back

Thanks all:)

[millwx]

Party ID in this poll was

34% Dem
33% GOP

Quite close to where is should be.

It should be noted (I'm surprised nobody's pointed it out yet) that this is a 7% party ID shift from the previous ABC/WP poll.  I'm not saying this poll is wrong... in fact, recall the conversation on this board... the last one may well have been.  Plus, as a self-identifier there is no guarantee that either of the polls is wrong.  However, we all seemed to agree that the previous ABC/WP poll was in error.  So, this new poll is still rather good news for Bush, but let's not read too much into "trends"... were both polls of equal quality sample, there would probably be little to no trend (Bush would've done better in the previous ABC/WP poll).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here is a full breakout of this poll.

http://abcnews.go.com/images/pdf/957a1ConventionOpener.pdf

Party ID in this poll was

34% Dem
33% GOP


First, welcome back.

Second, we had some really bizarre state polls posted a last week.

As a sidelight, Gallup has come up with self-identification by parties, including 'leaners.' as follows:

                     Republican                     Democrat

2003                    45.5%                           45.2%
2002                    45.3                               45.4

Of course, PEW agrees with your estimate as it does not include 'leaners,' and is INHO, probably correct.

Remember when I told you Rasmussen was oversampling Democrats a few months ago?

[Gustaf]

Welcome back Vorlon.

[TheWildCard]

Vorlon's back! We'll finally know what the heck these polls mean!!!!