What if China Remained Open to the World?

[Frodo]

What if China under the Ming dynasty had remained open to the outside world, establishing ports and trade networks with European powers the same way Japan did after the end of the Tokugawa shogunate?  How would history in the region been altered?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The pre-1500 status quo of China being the dominant power on the eurasian world island and by extent the world continues onwards to now.

[SADM]

3 Words

China Uber Alles

[Wakie]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

Nice idea but no. The latest POD that gets you a long-standing divided china is no mongol invasions due to mongolia never uniting.

[Verily]

The Ming establish colonial ports around South Asia and eventually India, but are eventually conquered by the Manchus anyway. The new dynasty (probably not called the Qing simply due to butterflies) halts all overseas expansion. The little Chinese colonial ports become independent statelets functioning on their own, in some areas possibly rising to rule large swathes of territory. (I'm thinking Indonesia and eventually Australia especially.)

Thereafter, the history of China proper is similar for a few centuries, but the Europeans, initially stymied by the powerful Chinese in eastern Indian Ocean and later by their statelet descendants, do not establish colonies in the area, and possibly not in India, either. Portugal never becomes a major trading power, instead focusing on the development of Brazil, sugar and the slave trade exclusively.

Later history becomes more and more difficult to ascertain. Little European presence in the Pacific leaves Japan closed, although the overseas Chinese states might force its opening earlier. The British interfere more on the continent because they are not fighting in the Indian Ocean. East Africa might never be colonized, or at least only a few trading ports established or conquered.

[2952-0-0]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

A bit of a problem there, since China is, and has been for thousands of years (at least in the eastern part), ethnically homogenous. Unlike in Europe, there are fewer geographic barriers to stop invading armies and settlers. So whenever China is fractured into statelets (like it has been several times), there's always a long period of war followed by someone triumphing at the end.

Back on topic, I'm not sure the Ming dynesty (or any dynesty) would allow out-and-out independence by those overseas statelets. Instead there would have been a complex network of protectorates (and at one point there was a Chinese-run republic in Borneo).

The Thai and Burmese empires have long been protectorates, and Taiwan would never have fallen in Dutch occupation. There would be a system of protectorates in Indonesia and Phillipines with a Chinese elite and local majority, which might lead to rebellions at times. Siberia has for a long time been seen as, well, a frozen wasteland (not to mention the fierce Mongols) so eventually there could be conflict with Russia as it moves east (if that happens then Russia might be crushed and reduced to its European part, so the Russian Empire would not exist).

Since the Chinese are an agricultural people they might have some settlement in coastal Queensland, and might run into a bitter struggle with the Brits (assuming Captain Cook does land at Sydney and convicts get sent there). The Mogul Empire might adapt Chinese style in culture and economy, but never falls under protectorate. By now efforts by European powers to reach India succeed, and bit by bit as the Indians copy long-distance sailing methods they set out to explore Africa.

By now the Chinese could have reached the Spanish in Mexico or even rounded the Cape of Good Hope and reached Europe. How Europe reacts decides the future.

[Wakie]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

A bit of a problem there, since China is, and has been for thousands of years (at least in the eastern part), ethnically homogenous.

Although that thinking currently dominates China, in about 1910 the thinking was different.

[Wakie]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

Nice idea but no. The latest POD that gets you a long-standing divided china is no mongol invasions due to mongolia never uniting.

I disagree.  Even at a basic level one can imagine the Warlord Era of the early 20th century being extended.  Or, and granted this isn't along ethnic lines, a stronger Kuomintang opposition and a fractured North/South China not unlike North/South Korea.

[2952-0-0]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

A bit of a problem there, since China is, and has been for thousands of years (at least in the eastern part), ethnically homogenous.

Although that thinking currently dominates China, in about 1910 the thinking was different.

At that time the country was fractored into areas under warlords. There have been many times where China is not under one rule, but those have been relatively rare. Every time that does happen, there's always a long period of war that ends with one side solidifying control. So it's not unreasonable to conclude that the most "natural" state of China is to be unified as one.

[Verily]

I think ultimately you would have seen China fracturing into seperate countries established along ethnic lines.

Back on topic, I'm not sure the Ming dynesty (or any dynesty) would allow out-and-out independence by those overseas statelets. Instead there would have been a complex network of protectorates (and at one point there was a Chinese-run republic in Borneo).

My belief is that an initially non-Han people (the Manchu, in this case) would have had much less regard for the colonial states than if the Ming were succeeded by another native Chinese dynasty. The Manchu were, from the beginning, staunchly traditionalist in the way of the later Ming in real history, which suggests to me that they would see overseas expansion as useless and frivolous and would stop bothering to contact the overseas Chinese territories. This doesn't mean ending the fiction of vassalage, of course, but it would end the reality; Japan, for example, was nominally a vassal of China during the Ming and Qing.

The question then arises of whether the Chinese settlers would then pack up and return home, or whether they would try to continue their colonies and trading posts by themselves. I am inclined to say that a longstanding seafaring tradition lasting the whole length of the Ming dynasty would have somewhat eroded the desire of all Chinese to live in Chinese-dominated territories, particularly as by this point you would probably have quite a few who had been born overseas.

[Frodo]

Couldn't help but bump this topic.  I am surprised I hadn't read this post until now:

The Manchu were, from the beginning, staunchly traditionalist in the way of the later Ming in real history, which suggests to me that they would see overseas expansion as useless and frivolous

Not necessarily -one of the early Qing emperors (Kiangxi) was interested in western technology, and had he been emperor at the time of the Macartney Embassy, I am willing to wager that we would still have a Qing dynasty to this day, with China under a constitutional monarchy system similar to that of Meiji Japan. 

[v0031]

Janpan stepped into a power because of its leadership.
The Ming Emperor could't list China into a power.