General Election called in Greece

[Hash]

Ok,so ND or PASOK roughly need 40% in order to be able to have a majority,right?
And thanks for your answers,I am a complete newbie in Greek politics.

42% to be exact. (111 is 42.7% of all seats BTW)

[Harry Hayfield]

As it is of course a European Election, EuroNews will be holding regular updates from the polls closing onwards, could I therefore ask what colours to use for the parties, what the result (% vote share) was last time and the number of seats won.

[Hash]

Blue for ND, Green for PASOK, Red for KKE, Gold for SYR, Dark blue for LAOS

ND 45.4% (165 seats)
PASOK 40.5% (117 seats)
KKE 5.9% (12 seats)
Coalition of the Radical Left (now Synaspismos) 3.3% (6 seats)
--Winning 0 seats--
Popular Orthodox Rally 2.2%
Democratic Social Movement 1.8% --- now in Synaspismos-SYZRIA
Union of Centrists 0.3%
Radical Left Front 0.2%
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) 0.2%
Anti-Capitalist Coalition 0.1%
Hellenic Front 0.1%
Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece 0.1%
Militant Socialist Party of Greece 0%
Liberal Party (Greece) 0%
Organization for the Reconstruction of the Communist Party of Greece 0%
Independents 0.01%
Hristopistia 0.0%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is relatively high: Until 11am local time already 1/3 of the 9.8 Mio. eligible voters went to the polls.

The official site for elections returns is here:

http://www.ekloges.ypes.gr/pages_en/index.html

Polls will close at 7pm local time (noon in NY).

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

[Jens]

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

That sounds like a quite plausible prediction. I just hope that ND doesn't get 42+ % of the votes because that could cause the grotesk situation that PASOK, KKE and SYRIZA has a plurality of the votes but ND gaining a majority in parliament. Let's hope that that doesn't happen. I really hate those manipulated electoral systems!

[Hash]

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

Actually not quite, both the ND and PASOK are down from 45% and 40% in 2004 to around 36% and 35% now. The biggest gains should be LAOS, which should gain representation, KKE, and some tiny gains for the Radical left. (though that poll includes roughly 13% undecided)

With undecideds divided equally between the top 5 and taking into consideration around 2% for other parties we should get:

ND 38.16%
PASOK 36.96%
KKE 9.16%
LAOS 7.06%
SYZRIA 6.66%
Others 2.00%
TOTAL 100%
 
So some moderate loses for PASOK, a probable loss of majority for ND, and gains for KKE, LAOS, SYZRIA. I predict the other parties will be the ones coming out re-enforced.

[Tender Branson]

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

Actually not quite, both the ND and PASOK are down from 45% and 40% in 2004 to around 36% and 35% now. The biggest gains should be LAOS, which should gain representation, KKE, and some tiny gains for the Radical left. (though that poll includes roughly 13% undecided)

With undecideds divided equally between the top 5 and taking into consideration around 2% for other parties we should get:

ND 38.16%
PASOK 36.96%
KKE 9.16%
LAOS 7.06%
SYZRIA 6.66%
Others 2.00%
TOTAL 100%
 
So some moderate loses for PASOK, a probable loss of majority for ND, and gains for KKE, LAOS, SYZRIA. I predict the other parties will be the ones coming out re-enforced.

I predict the following:

PASOK: 40%
ND: 39%
KKE: 8%
LAOS: 5%
SYRIZA: 5%
Others: 3%

OK, just saw the PASOK got 40.5% in 2004, so it would be more like a stagnation for them and a loss for the ND ...

[Hash]

I really hate those manipulated electoral systems!

This is a new system in use for the first time (it was introduced by PASOK in 2004). This new one is actually better than the old ND system which gave a majority of seats even with 40%!

I expect a heavy beating for the Conservatives, moderate gains by the PASOK gains for the 3rd parties, like LAOS, the Communists and the Radical Left.

Actually not quite, both the ND and PASOK are down from 45% and 40% in 2004 to around 36% and 35% now. The biggest gains should be LAOS, which should gain representation, KKE, and some tiny gains for the Radical left. (though that poll includes roughly 13% undecided)

With undecideds divided equally between the top 5 and taking into consideration around 2% for other parties we should get:

ND 38.16%
PASOK 36.96%
KKE 9.16%
LAOS 7.06%
SYZRIA 6.66%
Others 2.00%
TOTAL 100%
 
So some moderate loses for PASOK, a probable loss of majority for ND, and gains for KKE, LAOS, SYZRIA. I predict the other parties will be the ones coming out re-enforced.

I predict the following:

PASOK: 40%
ND: 39%
KKE: 8%
LAOS: 5%
SYRIZA: 5%
Others: 3%

OK, just saw the PASOK got 40.5% in 2004, so it would be more like a stagnation for them and a loss for the ND ...

Mine is not a prediction, just dividing the 12.7% undecided equally and taking into account 2-3% others. I'll do a prediction later on but I suck at predicting elections. Guess why I suck in estimation in math

[Hash]

2004 polls just for comparison: http://www.greekelections.com/portal/en/polls/2004.asp?state=polls

[Hash]

I predict

ND 39%
PASOK 38%
KKE 8%
LAOS 6%
SYR 5%
Others 4%

[Tender Branson]

I´m curious why there´s such a high number of eligible voters in Greece. In this election 9.8 Mio. out of a total population of 11.2 Mio. are eligible to vote - or 88%. That would mean that only 12% of the total population is under-18 ... Or is there a high number of Greeks Abroad who are eligible to vote ? Does anyone know ?

[Hash]

Coming soon...

Go ND!

[afleitch]

Exit Poll: Source ERT

ND 42.2
PASOK 38.5
KKE 7.5
SYRIZA 5.0
LAOS 3.5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit Poll: Source ERT

ND 42.2
PASOK 38.5
KKE 7.5
SYRIZA 5.0
LAOS 3.5

Hands up everyone who hates Greece's electoral system

[Harry Hayfield]

Greece 2007 Exit Poll (Source: Euronews)

New Democracy 42.2% (-3.2% on 2004)
Panhellenic Socialist Movement 38.5% (-2.0% on 2004)
Communist Party of Greece 7.5% (+1.6% on 2004)
Popular Orthodox Rally 3.5%
Others 8.3% (made up of Radical Left 5% and Democratic Social Movement 3.3%)

[Harry Hayfield]

Greece 2007 Exit Poll (Source: Euronews)

New Democracy 42.2% (-3.2% on 2004)
Panhellenic Socialist Movement 38.5% (-2.0% on 2004)
Communist Party of Greece 7.5% (+1.6% on 2004)
Popular Orthodox Rally 3.5%
Others 8.3% (made up of Radical Left 5% and Democratic Social Movement 3.3%)

No change on the last update, except that New Democracy are forecast to win 152 seats

[Harry Hayfield]

Seat Estimates:

ND 152
PASOK less than 100

[SPQR]

42% of the people vote for a party and that party alone gets a majority.Wow.

[Jens]

42% of the people vote for a party and that party alone gets a majority.Wow.

Hands up everyone who hates Greece's electoral system

Here, here - but Labour won a majority with 35 % last time (and got 55 % of the MP's)

[SPQR]

42% of the people vote for a party and that party alone gets a majority.Wow.

I never said the English system was good.

Hands up everyone who hates Greece's electoral system

Here, here - but Labour won a majority with 35 % last time (and got 55 % of the MP's)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here, here - but Labour won a majority with 35 % last time (and got 55 % of the MP's)

But the electoral system used in the U.K isn't supposed to be even slightly proportional.

[Jens]

Here, here - but Labour won a majority with 35 % last time (and got 55 % of the MP's)

But the electoral system used in the U.K isn't supposed to be even slightly proportional.

That is true and the Greek has the intention to produce a majority for the largest party (not PR in my book).
Back to the election. It looks like ND is just short of 42 %. Let's hope it stays like that.

[Hash]

71.05% voted, 37.05% reporting

ND 43.87% 157
PASOK 38.52% 103
KKE 7.24% 19
SYZRIA 4.34% 12
LAOS 3.37% 9

Map soon

[Jens]

71.05% voted, 37.05% reporting

ND 43.87% 157
PASOK 38.52% 103
KKE 7.24% 19
SYZRIA 4.34% 12
LAOS 3.37% 9

Map soon

Combined Right: 47,24% 166M
Combined Left: 50,1% 134M

Without the 42% bonus the left would hold a solid majority!

[Hash]

Actually its not a 42% bonus, its a FPTP bonus.