OH-15: Deborah Pryce set to retire...

[MarkWarner08]

Based on the Dispatch article, it appears Congresswoman Deborah Pryce, who survived her 2006 by less than 1000 votes, is very close to announcing her retirement from Congress. THis news sets up an open seat race with Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy the strong favorite over any GOP candidate. A Pryce retirement  could be a foreboding sign for fellow moderate Republicans in swing suburban districts like Mark Kirk and Dave Reichert.

This news is yet another bad break for the NRCC. Now the GOP will have to defend up to three open seats in Ohio (OH-07, OH-15, and OH-16). With Steve Chabot facing a tough challenge (again) in OH-01, and Jean Schmidt under fire in the 2nd District (again), Democrats could be poised for a 2+ seat pickup in Ohio. While many experts saw 2006 as the Democrats best opportunity to break the GOP's gerrymandering lock on Ohio's House seats, the possibility of a popular Democrat at the top of the ticket (Obama), combined with flagging support of the war and Bush's abysmal approval ratings could turn the Buckeye State into ground zero in the fight to expand the Democratic majority in the House.

http://www.dispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/08/15/pryce.html

According to Buckeye State Blog, "The GOP's dream challenger to replace Pryce is State Senator Steve Stivers. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Stivers turned the Franklin County Republican Party down on the spot yesterday when approached with an offer to run. Since Stivers is up for re-election in the Senate, and approaching an opportunity to serve as Senate President, he views a run for Congress to risky in a district clearly trending Democrat." More here: http://buckeyestateblog.com/oh_15_confirmed_pryce_to_announce_retirement_today_gopers_bail_on_race

[minionofmidas]

That would be one of the best pickup opportunities the Dems could possibly hope for.

[Sam Spade]

Hobson (OH-07) and Regula (OH-16) have announced they will retire?  That's news to me.

As for Pryce, this article is ambivalent.  We'll wait until tomorrow, though I wouldn't be necessarily surprised.

[MarkWarner08]

Hobson (OH-07) and Regula (OH-16) have announced they will retire?  That's news to me.

As for Pryce, this article is ambivalent.  We'll wait until tomorrow, though I wouldn't be necessarily surprised.

Regula is on the verge of retirement and here's the scoop on Hobson: http://daytonos.com/?p=67

[Sam Spade]

Hobson (OH-07) and Regula (OH-16) have announced they will retire?  That's news to me.

As for Pryce, this article is ambivalent.  We'll wait until tomorrow, though I wouldn't be necessarily surprised.

Regula is on the verge of retirement and here's the scoop on Hobson: http://daytonos.com/?p=67

Thank you for clarifying your statement on Regula.  The article on Hobson is interesting, but the guy has no real back-up news for his comments other than the purported actions of other people.  Whilst this does not mean his statement may be false, it does mean that it is unsubstantiated, and thus cannot really be believed for now.

[MarkWarner08]

The Hill picked the up the story:
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/pryce-set-to-retire-gop-sources-say-2007-08-15.html

[Mr.Phips]

The Democrats would probably be favored to win Pryce's seat in an open race.

[Conan]

If dems don't pick up at least one seat here in 2008, it will be a huge disappointment.

[Verily]

Lean Dem, I think. I would be very surprised if the Democratic Presidential candidate doesn't win this district, even if they lose nationwide, and Mary Jo Kilroy has a strong base from her last run.

This is Padfoot's district, isn't it?

[Padfoot]

Lean Dem, I think. I would be very surprised if the Democratic Presidential candidate doesn't win this district, even if they lose nationwide, and Mary Jo Kilroy has a strong base from her last run.

This is Padfoot's district, isn't it?

It is my district and I must say I am very sad to see Rep. Pryce retiring.  She is one of the few Republicans I actually like.  She represented her district well and will be missed.   The House is losing a great champion of issues affecting children.

Rep. Pryce is expected to announce that the demands of being a single parent with a very young child do not mesh well with working 5 days a week in Washington.  This will supposedly be her official reason for retiring, however I have heard there are other factors as well.  Pryce was fairly close to former Speaker Hastert so his retirement announcement may have affected her.  Also, an aquaintance of mine who works for Rep. Tiberi of OH-12 told me that Deb just isn't up to another race like 2006 especially since Kilroy was gunning for a rematch.  2006 was really brutal for her and I can understand why Deb wouldn't want to run in that kind of environment again.

Now that Rep. Pryce is retiring I'm not really sure who I will be voting for in 2008.  I had sorta planned on her being there.  I'm not really a big fan of Mary Jo Kilroy but if the GOP nominates someone too conservative then I will cast my vote for her.  I really wish Paula Brooks had stayed in the race.  She's much more appealing than Kilroy.  I'll have to take a closer look at the GOP candidates and see if there are any I could maybe support.  I'm really going to have to pay attention to this race now.

As for predictions, this race has definitely jumped into the leans Democratic column IMO.  Kilroy built up some major name recognition last year and the GOP will be hard pressed to find someone as moderate or as popular as Deb Pryce.  I expect that lots of independents and Democrats who voted for Pryce will abandon the GOP candidate in 2008.  OH-15 has changed a lot since it was first drawn to ensure continued GOP victories.  Columbus is a fast growing and very socially accepting city and large portions of the Columbus gay community are located within OH-15.  Pryce was able to do well here because of her many socially moderate positions (she was supported by pro-choice and gay rights groups) so any GOP hopeful will have to have similar positions if they hope to win here.  However, with rural conservatives in the western portion of the district in control of the nominating process I doubt we will see another candidate in the same mold as Deb. 

Democrats are chomping at the bit to claim some major victories in Ohio in 2008.  It is shaping up to be another rough year for the GOP here.  Democratic strategists are already looking at taking control of the Ohio House, numerous US House seats are potentially in play again, and presidential hopefuls will likely be relying on the Buckeye State to put them in the White House once again.  I'm getting a headache already just thinking about the political ads I'll have to endure.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I too thought well of Pryce and her retirement is a shame in the sense there are so many other Republicans I wish would retire.

OH-15 voted 50%-50% for Bush in 2004, after going 52%-44% for him in 2000.  I think this is obviously one of the best pickup chances the Democrats have in 2008 (If Pryce retires).  I do remember reading an article recently, however, that said that Pryce's fundraising for re-election had already begun and was formidable?

[Democratic Hawk]

Pryce seems to be one of the better Republicans (of course, I did root for her defeat in 06 as part of the House GOP leadership in the wake of Foleygate). Among a pretty putrid bunch (House Republicans, that is), she seems fairly moderate and, thus far, she has voted for much of the Democratic progressive agenda this session, as well as Appropriation Bills and even against some GOP Motions to Recommit With Instructions

I recall reading an article which described that although Pryce was not unknown to bolt her party leadership; she was now bolting her party! In the current Congress, she's voted 85.3% of the time with a majority of her Republican colleagues

Roll call 9: Aye [On Adoption of Title 4 of the Resolution Adopting the Rules of the House of Representatives for the One Hundreth Tenth Congress]
Roll call 15: Aye [On Passage Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act]
Roll call 18: Aye [On Passage Fair Minimum Wage Act]
Roll call 20: Aye [On Passage Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act]
Roll call 72: Aye [On Passage Further Continuing Appropriations for Fy 2007]
Roll call 172: Aye [On Passage Gulf Coast Hurricane Housing Recovery Act of 2007]
Roll call 205: Aye [On Passage Hawaiin Home Ownership Opportunity Act]
Roll call 244: Aye [On Passage HR 1257 To amend the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to provide shareholders with an advisory vote on executive compensation]
Roll call 269: Aye [On Passage To Restore the Prohibition on the Commercial Sale and Slaughter of Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros]
Roll call 299: Aye [On Passage To Provide Federal Assistance to States, Local Jurisdictions, and Indian Tribes to Prosecute Hate Crimes]
Roll call 318: Aye [On Passage Department of Homeland Security Authorization Act]
Roll call 396: Aye [On Passage Federal Housing Finance Reform Act]
Roll call 443: Aye [On Passage Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act]
Roll call 491: Aye [On Passage Department of Homeland Security Appropriations for Fy 2008]
Roll call 541: Aye [On Passage Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations for Fy 2008]
Roll call 579: Aye [On Passage Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies Appropriations, Fy2008]
Roll call 606: Aye [On Passage Financial Services and General Government Appropriations for Fy 2008]
Roll call 641: Aye [On Passage Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fy2008]
Roll call 686: Aye [On Passage Making Appropriations for the Department of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, and Related Agencies for Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 2008, and for Other Purposes]
Roll call 715: Aye [On Passage Departments of Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fy2008]
Roll call 744: Aye [On Passage Department of Commerce and Justice, and Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations for Fy2008]

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Since it looks certain now that Pryce is going to retire, I only would wish her the best in her endeavors and her life.

The seat is certainly Dem favored in the present political environment - the Republicans do have a few fairly strong candidates in this area of the world, however.

[Keystone Phil]

Jim Petro is thinking of running for the seat! Awesome! I propose that we just throw away every damn seat in both houses of Congress.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is the best House related news I've heard all year.

[Padfoot]

Jim Petro is thinking of running for the seat! Awesome! I propose that we just throw away every damn seat in both houses of Congress.

While I too believe that running a former member of the Taft administration is the kiss of death they could do worse.  I have no doubts that Petro would have done much better than Blackwell did last year in the governor race.  It might have even been competitive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He would've done better, but it would've not have been competitive. Strickland was basically unbeatable from the moment he entered the race, also on account that he was such a great candidate as well (making WalterMitty's comments about him even more amusing)

[MarkWarner08]

Could Kilroy go UNOPPOSED? Looks like the GOP has run out of top tier candidates.
http://www.buckeyestateblog.com/oh_15_lashutka_takes_a_pass_republicans_left_with_no_obvious_candidate

Pretty sad indeed....

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Could Kilroy go UNOPPOSED?

Of course not.

[Padfoot]

Could Kilroy go UNOPPOSED?

She won't go unopposed but it appears increasingly likely that the GOP will be forced to run a second tier candidate.  None of the major players in this district are interested in this particular race.  Most of them are currently focused on other elections.  The Columbus Dispatch recently reported that the Franklin County GOP is still hoping to find a candidate who is well known (or at least from) Franklin County which accounts for 85% of the vote in OH-15.  If the GOP is forced to nominate someone from either Union or Madison Counties look for this race to become pretty much a safe Dem pick-up.  That's not just because of population/ name recognition either.  A Union or Madison nominee would likely be highly conservative which would be a turn-off to Franklin County voters used to Pryce's moderate approach.

Currently I'm rating my district as lean Dem with a high likelihood of becoming safe Dem given the current lack of a strong GOP nominee.