French Locals 2008

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Some good news for UMP supporters coming from Toulouse:

BVA
UMP 43%
PS 39%
MoDem 5%
Alternatifs 5%
LCR 4%
FN 4%
NSP 8%

UMP 50%
PS 50%

This coming from a department with no UMP deputies and where Royal was very strong in 2007. Apparently Moudenc (UMP incumbent) is quite popular, more than his predecessor.

A PS gain is still quite likely, but I'm not writing off a UMP hold.

[Umengus]

and don't forget Henin-Beaumont which should to go to FN.

It's far from certain. It will be close, but if the FN is polling as low as 2% nationally, then no.

Last week, a national ifop poll gave 8% for FN. And csa poll institute  sucks. National polls are irrelevant for local elections and local polls are often bad.

The number of lists at the second turn will be very important.

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http://www.ouest-france.fr/Bordeaux-Alain-Juppe-pour-l-instant-favori/re/municipales2008_detail/dossiers_13228-543301------_actu.html

Wow. Just wow.

Juppe leads 52-39 in the first round.

[Umengus]

Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

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Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

Isn't it only part of it? IIRC the constituency to the north is more conservative, the one to the south more lefty.

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Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

Isn't it only part of it? IIRC the constituency to the north is more conservative, the one to the south more lefty.

It is indeed, but Umengus phrased it the way that he is popular everywhere in his city.

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Lyon poll.

PS 55%
UMP 32%
MD 8%

or

PS 59%
UMP 36%

"Runoff"

PS 60%
UMP 40%

Collomb 78% good opinions
Perben 41% good opinions

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I'm happy.

Le Monde has a map of Rennes:



The race is uninteresting because Rennes is very leftish, so Daniel Delaveau (mayor of Saint Jacques de la Lande) will easily win and take Herve's post (Herve is standing down, having been there since 1977). The UMP candidate is an Arab IIRC. The MD, Greens, FN, and PT are also running.

[Umengus]

Juppe is popular only in his city. Not a surprise if he is reelected.

You'll have to explain why he was defeated, seeing that his constituency is composed only of the city itself.

Isn't it only part of it? IIRC the constituency to the north is more conservative, the one to the south more lefty.

It is indeed, but Umengus phrased it the way that he is popular everywhere in his city.

Not everywhere but in Bordeaux in general.

[Umengus]

Popularity of Sarkozy crashing, I hope for UMP that a big majority of voters will vote only by local interests.

I'm curious to see if FN voters (in PACA,...) who have voted for sarkozy at the first turn of the PE will come back to FN, will not vote,...

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Paris, CSA
PS-PCF 44% (-)
UMP 36% (-1)
MD 9% (+2)
Greens 6% (+1)
EXG 3% (-1)
FN 2% (-1)  (FN-MNR 2001, over 5.7%)

PS-PCF 57%
UMP 43%

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Re: PS/PCF

Apparently the Socialists are starting to abandon their Communist 'allies' in the 9-3, in many cities PCF incumbents will have Socialist opposition.

Other interesting facts because I'm bored in class.

France has 36,783 villages/towns/cities, a EU record. 21,000 of those have less than 500 people.
500,000 councillors. 267 out of 577 MPs are mayors, 125 out of 331 Senators are mayors.

EDIT: Re: Lyon... Collomb is ultra-safe, and IIRC Alain Delon and Deupardieu appeared with him at some event:



The UMP has merit for choosing awful candidates. Panafieu is an arrogant snob, Perben is in Lyon since only 4 years, Christian Vanneste is an homophobe in a city where the UMP has a real chance at a gain (Turcoing). I'm not too pleased with the choice of UMP candidates, especially in Paris, but what the hell... as long as NC and GM do well and the UMP re-elects a few mayors in the big cities, I'll be happy.

It's a lost cause for the right to have hopes of gaining in Paris or Lyon.

[Math]

Christian Vanneste is an homophobe in a city where the UMP has a real chance at a gain (Turcoing).

I'm afraid it will be not a serious disadvantage; on the contrary in this kind of town, i guess it will help Vanneste to attract FN voters...

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Christian Vanneste is an homophobe in a city where the UMP has a real chance at a gain (Turcoing).

I'm afraid it will be not a serious disadvantage; on the contrary in this kind of town, i guess it will help Vanneste to attract FN voters...

I'm not much into political demographics of the Nord, but could it potentially turn off centrists or GayLib-type voters that would vote UMP?

[Math]

I'm not much into political demographics of the Nord, but could it potentially turn off centrists or GayLib-type voters that would vote UMP?

Hum, I guess what you called "Gay-Lib-type voters" doesn't exist, and especially in the North of France. It's a working class area, formerly very socialist, and since 20 years with the higher level of FN votes in France. The majority of voters are economically leftists, but also very authoritarians. I'm pretty sure an homophobic candidate is not a problem for a vast majority of the voters.
Perhaps some centrists will be shocked, but in a tiny proportion.

[Umengus]

and he was reelected in 2007 with 58 % (but with only a part of tourcoing).

In 2001:

Balduyck (left): 45%
vanneste: 40%
FN: 15%

in 2007:

second turn: Sarkozy: 51%

For this election, Fn agrees to make alliance at teh second turn with Vanneste but Vanneste doesn't want (for now) and he hope that FN will not get 10%+ to go to the second turn.

Modem should to support left at the second turn but I'm not sure that modem voters should do the same (cfr Marine Le Pen legislative election)

For now, Vanneste is favourite, especially if the FN candidate is not at the second turn.

[Hash]

and he was reelected in 2007 with 58 % (but with only a part of tourcoing).

In 2001:

Balduyck (left): 45%
vanneste: 40%
FN: 15%

in 2007:

second turn: Sarkozy: 51%

For this election, Fn agrees to make alliance at teh second turn with Vanneste but Vanneste doesn't want (for now) and he hope that FN will not get 10%+ to go to the second turn.

Vanneste won Turcoing in 07, but with a lesser % than in the constituency IIRC.
Re: FN, if the FN is at the same level as it was in June, then they're not in the runoff. If they can get back to Le Pen's 12% here in April, they'll be in. Although in these types of elections, FN votes in runoff quite often go down compared to the first round.

For now, Vanneste is favourite, especially if the FN candidate is not at the second turn.

Sadly, I'd agree.

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OK, haha Bayrou again. Christophe Geourjon, Lyon's MoDem candidate has resigned as head of the departmental section of the party and is thinking of not running. Apparently, he's also in a fight with Bayrou.

[Umengus]

OK, haha Bayrou again. Christophe Geourjon, Lyon's MoDem candidate has resigned as head of the departmental section of the party and is thinking of not running. Apparently, he's also in a fight with Bayrou.

Bayrou is in fight with everybody (except mariel de sarnez...).

He thinks at 2012.

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OK, haha Bayrou again. Christophe Geourjon, Lyon's MoDem candidate has resigned as head of the departmental section of the party and is thinking of not running. Apparently, he's also in a fight with Bayrou.

Bayrou is in fight with everybody (except mariel de sarnez...).

He thinks at 2012.

And Jean Lasalle, his neighbor.

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This is too good. Do they think this is some TV show? Christophe Geourjon, MoDem candidate is now on Perben's UMP list. Lol.

Bayrou is really a joke now.

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Le Havre poll, TNS-Sofres

UMP 47%
PCF 22%
PS-PRG-Verts 19%
MNR 6%
DVG 3%
LCR 3%

Runoff

UMP 50%
PCF 50%

if UMP vs. PS

UMP 52%
PS-PRG-Verts 48%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting. The Commies actually gained seat in the Le Havre area last year.

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Interesting. The Commies actually gained seat in the Le Havre area last year.

That seat, the 6th constituency, is not only Le Havre proper IIRC. It also includes some close-by cantons.

But that gain was interesting nonetheless.

edit- The constituency only includes one canton of the Havre (Havre III)