Quinnipiac University: Hillary tops Dems in swing states of OH, FL, and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio

Hillary 41
Obama 17
Edwards 11
Gore 8

Giuliani        29
F. Thompson 11
McCain        11
Romney         8

Florida

Hillary 43
Obama 13
Gore 11
Edwards 8

Giuliani   26
F. Thompson 19
McCain     11
Romney     9


Pennsylvania

Hillary 35
Obama 19
Gore 12
Edwards 10

Giuliani 29
McCain 16
F. Thompson 14


Florida - Clinton tops Giuliani 46 - 44 percent, flipping a 46 - 44 percent Giuliani lead July 23;
Ohio - Clinton ties Giuliani 43 - 43 percent, compared to a 44 - 42 percent Clinton lead July 12;
Pennsylvania - Clinton edges Giuliani 45 - 44 percent, compared to a 45 - 45 percent tie June 27.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1089

[Tender Branson]

New updated GE election map with all the latest state polls (Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, R2000 etc.):

Giuliani vs. Clinton:

Clinton: 226 EV
Giuliani: 133 EV
Toss-Up: 20 EV

Changes: PA and FL flip to Clinton, OH from Clinton to Toss-Up

[Tender Branson]

All General Election polls:

FL:

Clinton 46 - Giuliani 44
Clinton 49 - Thompson 40
Obama 41 - Giuliani 44
Obama 43 - Thompson 37

OH:

Clinton 43 - Giuliani 43
Clinton 47 - Thompson 36
Obama 39 - Giuliani 42
Obama 44 - Thompson 32

PA:

Clinton 45 - Giuliani 44
Clinton 50 - Thompson 38
Obama 39 - Giuliani 45
Obama 44 - Thompson 36

[Eraserhead]

I seriously doubt that Clinton is polling better than Obama in the general election in these states.

[Tender Branson]

I seriously doubt that Clinton is polling better than Obama in the general election in these states.

I wondered about that too. Rasmussen has Obama leading Giuliani by 6% right now, but Obama is trailing him by 6 even in PA. So where is Obama leading then ? In Kentucky ? In Texas ? Or is he leading by 80-20 in Illinois ? It could also be the case that Rasmussen is wrong and Obama is tied with Giuliani right now or these polls are wrong. On the other hand it seems that Clinton is recently gaining on Giuliani in key states. Maybe NJ and CT are the next states to fall from Giuliani to Clinton and he´s left with nothing.

[Sam Spade]

The assumptions being made on this thread are laughable at best.  I could attempt to tell you what is going on - yes summer polling is part of it, but not all of it - but frankly I'll just wait and be smug.  For right now...

Obama weakened or strengthened support likely has to do with a couple of things - 1. Too many or too few independents in the poll (latter weakens, former strengthens); 2) Voters being pushed too hard or too little (hard pushing has typically weakened Obama's support - as voters tend to revert to old partisan patterns).

Translated into English - this means that Obama has more potential soft supporters/opponents and less hard supporters/opponents than Hillary.  Simply means more flexibility when the nominees are finally figured out (in possibly good and bad ways).

I suspect that when the primaries are finally held and the nominees are finally figured out, the Republican nominee will go up in the polls as Republican enthusiasm will intensify - if the nominee is Hillary.  If Obama is the nominee, his numbers will go up and the Republican's will stay the same, as his base consolidates (I suspect).  Republican enthusiasm will probably stay lower - barring external events

In other words, this means once the nominee is picked, the numbers should be around 47-47 if the nominee is Hillary (nationally) or 45-45 if Obama is the nominee.

Oh and one other thing - What's the poll out of Florida to trust?  It's not the Q.

[Sam Spade]

Oh and yes I know what Ras says about Obama's numbers...

[Reaganfan]

I don't foresee Hillary winning Florida or West Virginia.

[Tender Branson]

I don't foresee Hillary winning Florida or West Virginia.

I agree with you on WV (currently) but FL is unpredictable: fast growing, lots of new voters (but mostly retirees (conservatives) I think), lots of Latinos who supported Bush in 2000 or 2004 crossing over to Clinton this time around. Who knows whats going to happen down there next year if the ads are flowing ...

[Reaganfan]

I don't foresee Hillary winning Florida or West Virginia.

I agree with you on WV (currently) but FL is unpredictable: fast growing, lots of new voters (but mostly retirees (conservatives) I think), lots of Latinos who supported Bush in 2000 or 2004 crossing over to Clinton this time around. Who knows whats going to happen down there next year if the ads are flowing ...

Yeah, but that state is going red pretty fast....went for Bush by 5 pts.

[Eraserhead]

I don't foresee Hillary winning Florida or West Virginia.

I agree with you on WV (currently) but FL is unpredictable: fast growing, lots of new voters (but mostly retirees (conservatives) I think), lots of Latinos who supported Bush in 2000 or 2004 crossing over to Clinton this time around. Who knows whats going to happen down there next year if the ads are flowing ...

Yeah, but that state is going red pretty fast....went for Bush by 5 pts.

That was also a good year for the GOP though.

[??????????]

Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2000, even with the Presidents numbers way down.

[Reaganfan]

Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2000, even with the Presidents numbers way down.

I know...four hurricanes hit Florida in August and September of 2004...and there is no bashing George Bush...no "IMPEACH GOV. JEB" signs....no looting...and in the end...Bush wins the state by 5%.

Shows how the case of New Orleans was the case of a large Democratic city finding a reason to blame the President about something. Did anyone see "IMPEACH BOB RILEY" signs? Anyone? Oh...why is Haley Barbour gonna get re-elected later this year??

I'm not that good in math, but the point is...

Large Democratic African American City * Massive Hurricane Katrina = Z
Z = Blame George Bush.

[Eraserhead]

Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2000, even with the Presidents numbers way down.

I would say we had a pretty impressive 2006.

[HardRCafé]

Ohio:  tied
Florida:  Hillary by two

Yeah, that gibes with everything else.

[Verily]

Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2000, even with the Presidents numbers way down.

I know...four hurricanes hit Florida in August and September of 2004...and there is no bashing George Bush...no "IMPEACH GOV. JEB" signs....no looting...and in the end...Bush wins the state by 5%.

Shows how the case of New Orleans was the case of a large Democratic city finding a reason to blame the President about something. Did anyone see "IMPEACH BOB RILEY" signs? Anyone? Oh...why is Haley Barbour gonna get re-elected later this year??

I'm not that good in math, but the point is...

Large Democratic African American City * Massive Hurricane Katrina = Z
Z = Blame George Bush.

I seem to recall Kathleen Blanco being a Democrat. But carry on with your selective memory; it's really rather rather amusing.

[??????????]

Democrats haven't had much luck here since 2000, even with the Presidents numbers way down.

I would say we had a pretty impressive 2006.

Tell that to our Democrat state house...opps my bad.