The Republican Party has to become more competitive in blue states?

[Kevin]

I've been thinking about this for a while and with the Democrats gaining ground quickly in states in the Southwest most notably in Nevada and Colorado and with the Democrats also becoming more competitive in Virginia and other states,I was thinking that the Republican Party could help stem the loss of electoral ground by attempting by one way or another becoming more competitive in blue states that have been given up on. States like  Illinois,New Jersey,and Delaware and maybe even Maine and Connecticut. Also maybe the Republicans could turn the tide in New Hampshire. However in order for the Republican Party to regain it's politcal strength the Republican Party is going to have to become much more competitive in blue states if at all possible?

Any opinions?     

[Gabu]

And how do you propose they do that?

[Jaggerjack]

Illinois: Trending hard-left
Maine: See above
New Jersey: Was as close in 2004 as it'll ever get, barring Giuliani
Delaware: Solid blue
New Hampshire: See Illinois

[Smash255]

Illinois: Trending hard-left
Maine: See above
New Jersey: Was as close in 2004 as it'll ever get, barring Giuliani
Delaware: Solid blue
New Hampshire: See Illinois

Agreed and at this point with his Iraq views I doubt Rudy could do any better in NJ than Bush did in 04.

So Kevin how do you expect this to happen?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Drop the prod fundies and become a secular center-capitalist party.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Let's look at all the state Republicans lost in 2004:

Wisconsin - extremely close both times and could easily swing GOP
Oregon - also close both times and certainly not trending that hard left
New Jersey - the extreme partisanship could be overcome at the presidential level
Pennsylvania - strong pockets of conservatism need to brought out
Vermont - ever since the yuppies moved up there, chances are out the window barring third part left-wing challenge
New Hampshire - Republicans need to focus on issues like guns and taxes there
Maine - possible
Michigan - probably the best chance for a pickup in 2008
Minnesota - need Pawlenty's approvals up first and more seats statewide
California - not happening anytime soon
Washington - if Rossi wins in 08', possible chance for 2012 pickup
Hawaii - great chance in 2012 if Republicans win in 2008
Delaware - cross it off, no shot
New York - only if the city is made a seperate state
Maryland - not going to happen

Any I'm forgetting, my bad, but I think these are the best chances for a GOP pickup in 2008:

1.) Michigan
2.) Wisconsin
3.) Pennsylvania
4.) Oregon
5.) Minnestoa
6.) New Jersey

None of the others (except NH) are even real possibilites in 2008.  The problem for the GOP is that they always will most likely win more states and therefore have less room to expand even after victories.  They need to keep their small and medium sized states and also capture a big prize like MI, PA, NJ, or NY

[Kevin]

Let's look at all the state Republicans lost in 2004:

Wisconsin - extremely close both times and could easily swing GOP
Oregon - also close both times and certainly not trending that hard left
New Jersey - the extreme partisanship could be overcome at the presidential level
Pennsylvania - strong pockets of conservatism need to brought out
Vermont - ever since the yuppies moved up there, chances are out the window barring third part left-wing challenge
New Hampshire - Republicans need to focus on issues like guns and taxes there
Maine - possible
Michigan - probably the best chance for a pickup in 2008
Minnesota - need Pawlenty's approvals up first and more seats statewide
California - not happening anytime soon
Washington - if Rossi wins in 08', possible chance for 2012 pickup
Hawaii - great chance in 2012 if Republicans win in 2008
Delaware - cross it off, no shot
New York - only if the city is made a seperate state
Maryland - not going to happen

Any I'm forgetting, my bad, but I think these are the best chances for a GOP pickup in 2008:

1.) Michigan
2.) Wisconsin
3.) Pennsylvania
4.) Oregon
5.) Minnestoa
6.) New Jersey

None of the others (except NH) are even real possibilites in 2008.  The problem for the GOP is that they always will most likely win more states and therefore have less room to expand even after victories.  They need to keep their small and medium sized states and also capture a big prize like MI, PA, NJ, or NY

With Delawere there is a chance but not in 08,Also with Delawere keep in mind the state still has alot of Republicans at the state and local level combinded with the fact that the Democratic Governor there garners medicore apporval ratings. Also with your comments on needing to expand,In the long haul the GOP is losing ground,So we must become more competitive in the states you mentioned,I don't know how the GOP will do this but they must. 

[Kevin]

Illinois: Trending hard-left
Maine: See above
New Jersey: Was as close in 2004 as it'll ever get, barring Giuliani
Delaware: Solid blue
New Hampshire: See Illinois

Agreed and at this point with his Iraq views I doubt Rudy could do any better in NJ than Bush did in 04.

So Kevin how do you expect this to happen?

I don't know,However to start out the GOP has marginize the Religious Right and kind of return to it's roots with out sacrificing it's overall position on social issues,Also the GOP needs to be more supportive of it's moderate to liberal wing. Also keep in mind one of the reasons the Democrats were so successful in 2006 was due to the Democratic recruitting of moderate to conservative Democrats which enabled them to win House Seats in districts that voted up to 70% for Bush and to win Senate Seats in Republican leaning states like Virginia,Missouri,and Montana. The GOP needs a strategy like this in order to branch out.

[DanielX]

Drop the prod fundies and become a secular center-capitalist party.

Strangely enough, I agree with Straha here (to a point). The Republicans should target investors, small businessmen, doctors, professionals, and anyone looking to improve their lot in life through economic gain - including legal immigrants and parents with families. While some social conservativism can be useful in attracting the family types, being excessive on it will alienate the others.

By all rights, computer geeks would be natural members of such a party - much of the personal computer revolution in the 70s-80s was in the world of small businesses and limited government assistance (few politicians today know what to make of home computers - and they're responding to it by trying to crush it entirely - back then they knew nothing. In 1979, the Supreme Court considered the computer market 'static' and that IBM was effectively a monopoly... at a time when Radio Shack TRS-80s and Apple IIs were already on the market for almost 3 years, and were already starting to outsell big-iron machines); after outgrowing the hippie phase they'd fit a cosmopolitan-capitalist party quite well.  And yet, aside from libertarian and neocon minorities, most geeks are very much in the camp that supports stifling those very same businesses for the public good.

While I wouldn't go for 'center-capitalist', the Republicans should go for something in between Steve Forbes (conservative-capitalist) and Milton Friedman (right-libertarian-capitalist).

[Jaggerjack]

Let's look at all the state Republicans lost in 2004:

Wisconsin - extremely close both times and could easily swing GOP
Oregon - also close both times and certainly not trending that hard left
New Jersey - the extreme partisanship could be overcome at the presidential level
Pennsylvania - strong pockets of conservatism need to brought out
Vermont - ever since the yuppies moved up there, chances are out the window barring third part left-wing challenge
New Hampshire - Republicans need to focus on issues like guns and taxes there
Maine - possible
Michigan - probably the best chance for a pickup in 2008
Minnesota - need Pawlenty's approvals up first and more seats statewide
California - not happening anytime soon
Washington - if Rossi wins in 08', possible chance for 2012 pickup
Hawaii - great chance in 2012 if Republicans win in 2008
Delaware - cross it off, no shot
New York - only if the city is made a seperate state
Maryland - not going to happen

Any I'm forgetting, my bad, but I think these are the best chances for a GOP pickup in 2008:

1.) Michigan
2.) Wisconsin
3.) Pennsylvania
4.) Oregon
5.) Minnestoa
6.) New Jersey

None of the others (except NH) are even real possibilites in 2008.  The problem for the GOP is that they always will most likely win more states and therefore have less room to expand even after victories.  They need to keep their small and medium sized states and also capture a big prize like MI, PA, NJ, or NY

A little overly optimistic, aren't we?

[Alcon]

Pennsylvania - strong pockets of conservatism need to brought out

What does that mean?  Pennsylvania's conservative areas do not have particularly low turnout, except maybe the Amish or something.  You're not going to swing the state with the Amish.  You say this like there's something unique about Pennsylvania's conservatives that make them easy to turn out.  This seems like an observation you could make about nearly any state, save maybe Iowa or something and parts of the Northeast.

Vermont - ever since the yuppies moved up there, chances are out the window barring third part left-wing challenge

I think you understand neither what the "U" in "YUPPIE" stands for, nor the demographics of those moving into Vermont.  Despite popular perspective, I think we had two polls in 2004 show that those moving in from Massachusetts are actually more conservative than the locals.

New Hampshire - Republicans need to focus on issues like guns and taxes there

While making the Iraq war magically vanish.

Michigan - probably the best chance for a pickup in 2008

With their current economy?  How?

Washington - if Rossi wins in 08', possible chance for 2012 pickup
Hawaii - great chance in 2012 if Republicans win in 2008

What would Rossi winning have to do with the federal Democrats?  Lingle has been governor for a while and it certainly hasn't made Hawai'i Republican.  A narrow gubernatorial win (the best the GOP can probably help for in Washington) doesn't make for a federal win four years later.  And Hawai'i's pro-incumbency stuff will not stay.

Delaware - cross it off, no shot

This is an odd concession, considering your other points of optimism.  Unless Delaware is just so tiny that you forgot that it's not all that Democratic.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Pennsylvania - strong pockets of conservatism need to brought out

What does that mean?  Pennsylvania's conservative areas do not have particularly low turnout, except maybe the Amish or something.  You're not going to swing the state with the Amish.  You say this like there's something unique about Pennsylvania's conservatives that make them easy to turn out.  This seems like an observation you could make about nearly any state, save maybe Iowa or something and parts of the Northeast.

I mean we need to mobilize and keep the liberals home

Vermont - ever since the yuppies moved up there, chances are out the window barring third part left-wing challenge

I think you understand neither what the "U" in "YUPPIE" stands for, nor the demographics of those moving into Vermont.  Despite popular perspective, I think we had two polls in 2004 show that those moving in from Massachusetts are actually more conservative than the locals.

That area is not the area that is liberal, the liberal area is Burlington which accounts for 1/3 of the population

New Hampshire - Republicans need to focus on issues like guns and taxes there

While making the Iraq war magically vanish.

They need to play to their strengths and try to draw attention what people like about them

Michigan - probably the best chance for a pickup in 2008

With their current economy?  How?

Their current economy under Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is exactly why I think it will swing

Washington - if Rossi wins in 08', possible chance for 2012 pickup
Hawaii - great chance in 2012 if Republicans win in 2008

What would Rossi winning have to do with the federal Democrats?  Lingle has been governor for a while and it certainly hasn't made Hawai'i Republican.  A narrow gubernatorial win (the best the GOP can probably help for in Washington) doesn't make for a federal win four years later.  And Hawai'i's pro-incumbency stuff will not stay.

It would take a 52%+ win for Rossi which is not out of the question

Delaware - cross it off, no shot

This is an odd concession, considering your other points of optimism.  Unless Delaware is just so tiny that you forgot that it's not all that Democratic.

I just don't think the votes are there for it to happen

[SPC]

Drop the prod fundies and become a secular center-capitalist party.

Strangely enough, I agree with Straha here (to a point). The Republicans should target investors, small businessmen, doctors, professionals, and anyone looking to improve their lot in life through economic gain - including legal immigrants and parents with families. While some social conservativism can be useful in attracting the family types, being excessive on it will alienate the others.

By all rights, computer geeks would be natural members of such a party - much of the personal computer revolution in the 70s-80s was in the world of small businesses and limited government assistance (few politicians today know what to make of home computers - and they're responding to it by trying to crush it entirely - back then they knew nothing. In 1979, the Supreme Court considered the computer market 'static' and that IBM was effectively a monopoly... at a time when Radio Shack TRS-80s and Apple IIs were already on the market for almost 3 years, and were already starting to outsell big-iron machines); after outgrowing the hippie phase they'd fit a cosmopolitan-capitalist party quite well.  And yet, aside from libertarian and neocon minorities, most geeks are very much in the camp that supports stifling those very same businesses for the public good.

While I wouldn't go for 'center-capitalist', the Republicans should go for something in between Steve Forbes (conservative-capitalist) and Milton Friedman (right-libertarian-capitalist).

I really wish Forbes had gotten the nomination in 2000. We would be a lot better off, assuming he won in the general election.

[Boris]

The easiest way for the Republicans to make inroads into 'blue states' would be to simply let the Democrats take power and then wait until they fuck up. Isn't that how transfers of power work in this country? When one party screws up, the other takes over.

I'm sure the 2010 midterms will result in substantial gains for the Republicans in blue states throughout the country.

[Nym90]

I agree that in the long run, the GOP certainly does have to become competitive in the "blue" states (defined here as the Kerry states). They are in serious danger of being locked out of these states in Presidential elections for a generation. Consider that all of the Kerry states except New Hampshire have now voted Democratic in 4 consecutive Presidential elections, and that's a total of 248 Electoral Votes; a pretty strong base for the Democrats to be able to rely on.

As others have said though, how do they do this? Giuliani is the candidate who gives them the best chance in my opinion, but even he is tainted by support of the war. But at least he can make the Democrats spend some time and money in these states, whereas Thompson, Romney, and McCain probably have little to no chance of winning any of the Kerry states.

[Nym90]

With regards to Michigan going GOP, don't count on it. Yes, the economy is bad, but the people of Michigan mostly place the blame on the President and his policies rather than the Governor (see the 2006 election results here in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races for further evidence of that).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Look at what your party has done for America. They deserve to have their asses kicked in places like rural Utah. Bush may have a 71% disapproval rating, but that's still 29% too low.

[Kevin]

Look at what your party has done for America. They deserve to have their asses kicked in places like rural Utah. Bush may have a 71% disapproval rating, but that's still 29% too low.

I'm talking about beyond Bush as the President now is no longer a politcal power in Washington.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Look at what your party has done for America. They deserve to have their asses kicked in places like rural Utah. Bush may have a 71% disapproval rating, but that's still 29% too low.

I'm talking about beyond Bush as the President now is no longer a politcal power in Washington.

i would partially agree that Democrats need to embrace real liberalism and go after the true culprit if they want to realize sustained success--the real culprit being ronand 666 reagan.  bush would have never seen the light of day if it weren't for the D-list "actor" that appealed to racists in philadelphia, mississippi.

[DanielX]

Look at what your party has done for America. They deserve to have their asses kicked in places like rural Utah. Bush may have a 71% disapproval rating, but that's still 29% too low.

I'm talking about beyond Bush as the President now is no longer a politcal power in Washington.

i would partially agree that Democrats need to embrace real liberalism and go after the true culprit if they want to realize sustained success--the real culprit being ronand 666 reagan.  bush would have never seen the light of day if it weren't for the D-list "actor" that appealed to racists in philadelphia, mississippi.

It would be a great way for Democrats to lose support, bigtime. Regardless of what you think of his policies,Reagan was and still is popular. The majority of the public would be bewildered why the dems suddenly started attacking a popular former president who hasn't been in office in 20 years, when there's a very unpopular president right in front of their nose.

Actually, both parties are trying to embrace Reagan in the upcoming election. The Republicans are all desperately trying to out-Reagan each other (Thompson, being an actor, at least has a shot at being able to act like Reagan), while even the Dems are citing him as an inspiration even as they out-do each other in their socialistic wankfest (puh-leeze.... the only major Dem candidate who hasn't gotten me completely disgusted yet is Richardson, and I might not have heard enough from him. It's not that I think the Republicans are any good - by and large they're a pack of corrupt and incompetent asses who don't respect civil liberties - but the Democrats are corrupt, incompetent, don't respect quite a few civil liberties AND most of their policies disgust me).

And Reagan appealed in a lot of places. He won 1984 in a landslide, and 1980 was arguably a landslide as well. He obviously appealed to those Racists in Vermont and California too, he won both twice. . And, along with the Roosevelts, Eisenhower, and Kennedy, he's one of the '20th century greats' (this is by no means a partisan or ideological list; this has to do with their lasting popularity, the perceived positive impact of their policies, personal charisma, the nation's economic performance during their terms, and other such factors).

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Reagan fails and has a worse long term impact than Hitler when you factor in the deficits, international disorder from the soviet union's fall, causing us to be SCREWED when peak oil hits and stopping social progress. People who praise Reagan need to be gassed.

[Person Man]

Reagan fails and has a worse long term impact than Hitler when you factor in the deficits, international disorder from the soviet union's fall, causing us to be SCREWED when peak oil hits and stopping social progress. People who praise Reagan need to be gassed.

Be Good.

The states that are most suseptable to the GOP are Deleware, Michigan Pennsylvania and Hawaii. New Jersey was close at one point because of the war, but that has ended. Michigan and Pennsylvania were close in 2004 and could swing if the fundamentalists are reached in a better way. Hawaii is susceptable to policies favoring the upper middle class. I generally agree that the goal should be to reunite the party by dropping morality legislation at the federal level and go back to making the only social conservative issue the staking of the courts.

[Jaggerjack]

Reagan fails and has a worse long term impact than Hitler when you factor in the deficits, international disorder from the soviet union's fall, causing us to be SCREWED when peak oil hits and stopping social progress. People who praise Reagan need to be gassed.

Be Good.

The states that are most suseptable to the GOP are Deleware, Michigan Pennsylvania and Hawaii. New Jersey was close at one point because of the war, but that has ended. Michigan and Pennsylvania were close in 2004 and could swing if the fundamentalists are reached in a better way. Hawaii is susceptable to policies favoring the upper middle class. I generally agree that the goal should be to reunite the party by dropping morality legislation at the federal level and go back to making the only social conservative issue the staking of the courts.

Hawaii: Pro-incumbent bias, heavily Asian, likely to swing back to the Democrats in 2008.

[Person Man]

I see. Isn't there a lot of upper-middle class people moving in though?

[Jaggerjack]

It may be the case, but it won't be enough to make the state susceptible to the Republicans in 2008. Assuming that the Democrat wins, in 2012, we can expect a huge swing to the Democrats.