Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[Eraserhead]

I hope McCain wins for some reason. That would be funny.

[SPC]

As everyone has said Romney wins, what's at stake is how much does he win by? If that gap isn't very big he could be in some trouble.

I worked this out in Excel, and, after it gave me some crazy predidction of Romney winning 70% of the Straw Poll Vote, it eventually settled on a 6-7% winning margin of Romney.

Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

I know Keyes has said that he will be running a draft campaign in the Iowa Straw Poll, but do you really think he will beat McCain? Also, is Gilmore still on the Straw Poll ballot?

[Eraserhead]

As everyone has said Romney wins, what's at stake is how much does he win by? If that gap isn't very big he could be in some trouble.

I worked this out in Excel, and, after it gave me some crazy predidction of Romney winning 70% of the Straw Poll Vote, it eventually settled on a 6-7% winning margin of Romney.

Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

I know Keyes has said that he will be running a draft campaign in the Iowa Straw Poll, but do you really think he will beat McCain? Also, is Gilmore still on the Straw Poll ballot?

Honestly I'm not sure about either of those points you raised. That's why it's a total shot in the dark prediction.

[BeagleBoy]

Huckabee, T. Thompson, and Hunter will be out within a month.

Here are my predictions from yesterday (unchanged), for your reference.

Mitt Romney--42%
Ron Paul--20%
Tom Tancredo--15%
Sam Brownback--7%
Fred Thompson--4%
Mike Huckabee--3.5%
Rudy Giuliani--3%
Tommy Thompson--2.5%
John McCain--2%
Duncan Hunter--1%
John Cox--less than 1%

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, for those who are wondering, according to this:

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/iastraw07/iastraw07sched.html

the results will be announced at 7pm (I'm assuming that's Central time).

[SPC]

Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

[HappyWarrior]

I know, and I won't have time to find out until the next day because I'll be hanging out with family in Kansas.

[Eraserhead]

Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

Why? Hoping really hard for a Paul upset?

[SPC]

Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

Why? Hoping really hard for a Paul upset?

Of course. Although, I know Romney haws a lock on the first place position, I would like to compare my prediction (which used Excel numbers) to the actual results. Then again, I would be excited to see Ron Paul get the first place position.

[Reluctant Republican]

Question for everyone. Does everyone agree that Romney has more to lose then he has to gain by participating in this straw poll? After all, everyone expects him to win, and big. So, should he somehow lose, or even have someone like Paul place closer to him then expected, would that hurt his campaign significantly? I personally think that should he somehow lose the straw poll, it’s the end of his campaign. All the hype around him would deflate, and donations might start to draw up. Of course, I tend to exaggerate ill side effects, and could very well be doing so here.

[SPC]

Question for everyone. Does everyone agree that Romney has more to lose then he has to gain by participating in this straw poll? After all, everyone expects him to win, and big. So, should he somehow lose, or even have someone like Paul place closer to him then expected, would that hurt his campaign significantly? I personally think that should he somehow lose the straw poll, it’s the end of his campaign. All the hype around him would deflate, and donations might start to draw up. Of course, I tend to exaggerate ill side effects, and could very well be doing so here.

Well, if Romney loses the straw poll, it is over, as it would show he is unelectable in even Iowa.
If he wins, not like anyone expected it otherwise.

However, the latter is more likely to happen. Also, with the new Iowa poll and my reevaluation of Cox, I have compiled new results on Excel, which I will post here later on.

[SPC]

Okay, here are my updated [projected] results:

Romney ~37% (~15300)
Paul ~18% (~7500)
Tancredo ~10% (~4000)
Brownback ~9% (~3600)
Huckabee ~9% (~3500)
T. Thompson ~4% (~1800)
Giuliani ~4% (~1500)
Hunter ~3% (~1350)
F. Thompson ~3% (~1200)
McCain ~2% (~1000)
Keyes ~1% (~300)
Cox ~0% (~80)

[poughies]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

Romney-Huckabee-Brownback-Tommy Thompson-Fred Thompson-Paul....

[Eraserhead]

I really hope Paul comes in second but I don't see it happening right now.

[Keystone Phil]

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

[SPC]

I really hope Paul comes in second but I don't see it happening right now.

Well, the way I see it, Paul is very well poised to have a good showing. He has:
*More money than any of his second-tier competitors
*A strong base
*An open primary (Democrats and Independents can come too, advantageous for Paul)

Of course, I am speaking through a pro-Paul bias, so I don't know.

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

I have my fingers crossed. However, I don't see any way Rick Santorum can pull an upset victory at the Straw Poll.

[Keystone Phil]

I have my fingers crossed. However, I don't see any way Rick Santorum can pull an upset victory at the Straw Poll.

"Put a little love in your heart..."

[Eraserhead]

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

[Keystone Phil]

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

A write in effort for a pile of horse feces could beat him for all I care.

Paul will never be a major contender for the nomination so he's not a threat. Romney is. He must be stopped.

[Verily]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

[Eraserhead]

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

A write in effort for a pile of horse feces could beat him for all I care.

Paul will never be a major contender for the nomination so he's not a threat. Romney is. He must be stopped.

Still if it came down to Paul and Romney for some reason, you know you would force yourself to vote for Romney.

[Eraserhead]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

Just curious... what information?

[Keystone Phil]

Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

A write in effort for a pile of horse feces could beat him for all I care.

Paul will never be a major contender for the nomination so he's not a threat. Romney is. He must be stopped.

Still if it came down to Paul and Romney for some reason, you know you would force yourself to vote for Romney.

Fine but it's not just between them in this situation and Paul winning this wouldn't be handing him the Presidency. This would hurt Mitt a great deal though so I could deal with Paul winning.

[poughies]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

Romney-Huckabee-Brownback-Tommy Thompson-Fred Thompson-Paul....

Forgot tancredo.... place him in between Brownback and Tommy T.

[SPC]

Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

I think you are overestimating Romney. Giuliani, McCain, and Romney will still be on the ballot, and Paul and Brownback still have a decent amount of money. I personally doubt Romney will break 45%, but that's just me.