Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[Reluctant Republican]

Looks like Thompson will drop out now. Maybe Hunter will consider it, as well.

[Reaganfan]

HAHA Paul #5...after all the hype. I hope Ron Paul goes down in flames.

As for Romney, he is a force in the GOP field, but I would have voted for Huckabee and am glad Huckabee came in 2nd.

[ilikeverin]

So no real victor in the War for the Social Conservative Underdog Vote.  Interesting.

Delightful that Paul did so poorly considering all the massive hype.

[Erc]

Was Hunter officially 'on the ballot,' so to speak?

But yeah, this is the end of the road for Tommy.  Shame, really.


How much was Romney expected to get here?  [is this an underwhelming performance, or up to expectations]

[BeagleBoy]

Was Hunter officially 'on the ballot,' so to speak?

But yeah, this is the end of the road for Tommy.  Shame, really.


How much was Romney expected to get here?  [is this an underwhelming performance, or up to expectations]

Yes, Hunter was on the ballot.

It is a good result, but not overwhelming.

Bush got exactly the same percentage in 2000.

[Mr. Morden]

Was Hunter officially 'on the ballot,' so to speak?

But yeah, this is the end of the road for Tommy.  Shame, really.


How much was Romney expected to get here?  [is this an underwhelming performance, or up to expectations]

Hunter was definitely on the ballot.  He just did really badly.  (But I don't think he ever really put as much effort into this as Huckabee, Brownback, etc.)

I don't think Romney's margin of victory is very impressive at all.  Romney spent lavishly on this, whereas Huckabee has virtually no money, yet Romney only beat him by 13%.  Also, Romney is at ~25% in most Iowa polls.  His biggest rivals in those same state polls didn't show at all, yet that still only brings him up to 31%?  Doesn't seem too impressive.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee share prices at Intrade have doubled, following this news (but he's still only at 2.9).  Romney prices have gone up slightly as well, though I still think his margin of victory is less than I would have expected.

[SPC]

When will Tommy make the official announcement?

[poughies]

Paul finished a little better than i thought (in front of Thompson)...

The key is that Huckabee finished a CLEAR SECOND.
GET THE MAN SOME FUNDING!

[BeagleBoy]

Mitt Romney--42%
Ron Paul--20%
Tom Tancredo--15%
Sam Brownback--7%
Fred Thompson--4%
Mike Huckabee--3.5%
Rudy Giuliani--3%
Tommy Thompson--2.5%
John McCain--2%
Duncan Hunter--1%
John Cox--less than 1%

Damn, how did all this egg get all over my face.

I got Romney and Cox right...impressive.

As far as the percentages, I only got Tancredo, McCain, Hunter, and Cox within 3 points. Tancredo is the only one of those I can take any pride in.

[RBH]

HAHA Paul #5...after all the hype. I hope Ron Paul goes down in flames.

But.. but.. Diebold!

[Mr. Morden]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

Romney-Huckabee-Brownback-Tommy Thompson-Fred Thompson-Paul....

Forgot tancredo.... place him in between Brownback and Tommy T.

You win the prognostication prize for getting the top 4 correct, and in the right order.

[PBrunsel]

I think Brownback did very well. I was asked to come with him and his Iowa Team to Ames, but I was out on vacation with my family so I had to turn them down. I view his third place finish as a very good one for a man whom many gave little chance to. I now see he will stay in the race for me to cacus for him in January!

[ilikeverin]

Oooh, exciting, PB.  I totally would've canceled the vacation

I wish I felt enough excitement about any of the candidates to be a part of their "Minnesota Team"

Maybe I should find Biden's Minnesota people and tell them "you are the candidate I am least lukewarm about!"

[YRABNNRM]

I'm quite surprised that Huckabee did that well.

[Reaganfan]

I'm quite surprised that Huckabee did that well.

You asked my prediction and mine was:

1. Romney
2. Paul
3. Huckabee

I was a bit off...Paul did worse (thankfully) and Huckabee did better (thankfully).

[Kevin]

Alright I haven't been following this thing,So how well did Romney do also who come in second and third?

[Mr. Morden]

To answer Kevin's question:

Results:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/ames.php

1) Romney 31%
2) Huckabee 18%
3) Brownback 15%
4) Tancredo 14%
5) Paul 9%
6) T. Thompson 7%
everyone else 2% or less

Also, esteemed Iowa political reporter David Yepsen is unimpressed by Romney's margin of victory:

http://blogs.dmregister.com/?p=7571

[MarkWarner08]

Prediction:

Romney
Huckabee
Brownback
Tancredo
Hunter
Paul
Thompson, T.
Thompson, F.
Keyes
Giuliani
Cox
McCain

1) Romney 31%
2) Huckabee 18%
3) Brownback 15%
4) Tancredo 14%
5) Paul 9%
6) T. Thompson 7%
everyone else 2% or less

I got the order for the top four right.  I was just way off on Hunter. I guess Tancredo monopolized the "impede the free flow of labor" crowd.

[Kevin]

To answer Kevin's question:

Results:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/ames.php

1) Romney 31%
2) Huckabee 18%
3) Brownback 15%
4) Tancredo 14%
5) Paul 9%
6) T. Thompson 7%
everyone else 2% or less

Also, esteemed Iowa political reporter David Yepsen is unimpressed by Romney's margin of victory:

http://blogs.dmregister.com/?p=7571

He did good and my opinion and this is a reflection of his current political standing statewide.

[TommyC1776]

I'm quite surprised that Huckabee did that well.

yeah me too.  Also, how come Guiliani did so bad here?  Is this it for him?  I don't it would be but who knows.

[YRABNNRM]

Also, how come Guiliani did so bad here?  Is this it for him?  I don't it would be but who knows.

He didn't run, calling the straw poll for what it is: a "shakedown".

[poughies]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

Romney-Huckabee-Brownback-Tommy Thompson-Fred Thompson-Paul....

Forgot tancredo.... place him in between Brownback and Tommy T.

You win the prognostication prize for getting the top 4 correct, and in the right order.

I've always thought Huckabee would do quite well. Late polling suggested so as well. Late buzz around Tancredo (thanks Chuck Todd) and brownback suggested they would do well.

[Sam Spade]

Winners:
1. Romney - Hard not to be a winner when you're expected to win.  How much money did he spend on this extraveganza anyway?
2. Huckabee - Probably the biggest winner in all b/c his organization was less than some of the other candidates.  Maybe he'll be able to get some fundraising now (of which he has little)
3. Tancredo - So-so organization but a strong 4th place finish behind Brownback.  He is actually better funded for his type of campaign than a lot of others here, and this showing should allow him to continue the campaign.

Losers:
1. Brownback - Was really far superior in organization to only Romney and finished behind Huckabee (and almost behind Tancredo).  I suspect he continues, but a 3rd place finish is really a loss for him.
2. Paul - All those internet crazies, including people in this forum, and a finish behind Tancredo.  Pathetic.  He'll continue until it appears like the run hurts his chances of holding onto his House seat.  No later.

Should be dropping out soon:
1. T. Thompson - He said it.  Not me.
2. Hunter - Finishes behind Giuliani and F. Thompson.  Where's Carlhayden when you need him?

[MarkWarner08]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

Romney-Huckabee-Brownback-Tommy Thompson-Fred Thompson-Paul....

Forgot tancredo.... place him in between Brownback and Tommy T.

It's pretty cool that we both nailed the order. I still can't believe how poorly Hunter did.

You win the prognostication prize for getting the top 4 correct, and in the right order.

I've always thought Huckabee would do quite well. Late polling suggested so as well. Late buzz around Tancredo (thanks Chuck Todd) and brownback suggested they would do well.

Still surprised that Hunter did so poorly.  Well, It's cool we both nailed the top four in the right order.