Canadian by-elections

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Are the Greens running anyone in anything?

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Not to me, since I'm not supporting any of the Big 4 candidates in Outremont.

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The Neo Rhino is running, or planning on running a candidate in each of the 2 Quebec by-elections.

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Swings for each of the 3 Québec by-elections:

Outremont
For a BQ gain from Lib: 3.16% swing Lib to BQ
For a NDP gain from Lib: 9% swing from Lib to NDP
For a Con gain from Lib: 11.15% swing from Lib to Con

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
For a Con gain from BQ: 15.6% swing from BQ to Con
Won't bother with the other ones

Roberval-Lac Saint-Jean
For a Con gain from BQ: 4.01% swing from BQ to Con
For a Lib gain from BQ: 37.45% swing from BQ to Lib

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My predictions in Quebec:

Outremont: Liberal HOLD with NDP second
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot: BQ HOLD
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: BQ HOLD

However, all incumbent parties will lose some votes.

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I'd say some NDP and Con, but the Bloc maintains a decent score, most likely over 20%

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If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

Agreed, BQ should be third, Conservatives fourth.

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That small sample won't give accurate results though.

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If we take your poll seriously, the results are:

Liberal 40%
Conservative 20%
NDP 8%
Bloc 4%
Undecided 28%

Divide 28 undecided by 5 (number of candidates) and get +5.6% for each party

Liberal 45.6%
Conservative 25.6%
NDP 13.6%
Bloc 9.6%

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It's your survey or nothing

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I have Le Devoir here, but not La Presse and there's miserably few articles on the by-elections, I remember 1 a few days ago on the Neorhino running candidates, but that's all there was (maybe i missed a few)

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Might as well post this poll here.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/17059

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Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.

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Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.

Ottawa-Vanier is certainly trending NDP thanks very much to Rick Dagenais. It's also home to one of the most left wing neighbourhoods in the city, Sany Hill.  Alex Munter's vote there is proof of that.

I certainly agree, in fact the 2004 Conservative vote here was lower than the combined 2000 CA+PC vote!

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Can't be trending NDP too strongly; they got the same result in 2006 as in 1984, and it still wasn't good for second.

Of course, the NDP can't hope gaining Ottawa-Vanier for the next election, but the NDP vote is getting some high scores compared to those in the 90s and 80s (except 84) and 70s. And with the Liberals not getting a majority of votes anymore, it shows some minor trend to NDP.

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I wonder where the NDP vote comes from in Vanier.

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I noticed the area where Montreal Rd. becomes Rideau after the bridge is quite poor and lots of immigrants there- is that Sandy Hills there?

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Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

Beacon Hill is heavily Conservative, that's where my school is. Judging by the houses there, it can be explained. Am I right?

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Lulz, idiot. Is this the Conservative candidate in Outremont?

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The candidates

Outremont:

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon   
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson   
New Democrat Thomas Mulcair   
Conservative Gilles Duguay   
Green François Pilon   
Canadian Action Alexandre Amirizian   
Neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd   
Independent Romain Angeles   
Independent Mahmood Raza Baig   
Independent Jocelyne Leduc   
Independent Régent Millette   
Independent John C. Turmel

Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot:

Conservative Party Bernard Barré   
Liberal Party Jean Caumartin   
New Democratic Party Brigitte Sansoucy   
Canadian Action Party Michel St-Onge   
Green Party Jacques Tétreault   
Bloc Québécois Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac   
Neorhino.ca Christian Willie Vanasse

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Green Party Jean-Luc Boily   
Liberal Party Louise Boulanger   
New Democratic Party Éric Dubois   
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde   
Conservative Party Denis Lebel

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Good. I love seeing the Greens driving the Outremont Conservatives into irrelevance and the Greens driving Liberals into irrelevance in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

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Poor you. And I need to be in bed

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Cable's back!

You'll be in bed Hashemite? WTF

School tommorow.

But got an extension. RDI has good coverage.

Go Green

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Damn, the Greens did very badly. Damn Quebec!

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Average vote of all 3 constituencies:

Conservative 31,475; 36.92% (+12.18%)
Bloc Quebecois 23,983; 28.13% (-16.15%)
New Democratic Party 14,587; 17.11% (+7.93%)
Liberal 12,118; 14.21% (-2.95%)
Green 2,197; 2.58% (-1.74%)
Other Parties (Neorhino.ca, CAP, Ind) 895; 1.05% (+0.72%)