Canadian by-elections

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Oddly enough, the Green Party has started sending out calls for donations and volunteers for all the byelections. I think they were hoping it would occur during the summer so there would be a lot of students available for the campaigns, but that didn't stop them in London last year.

Unfortunately for the NDP, Outremont is probably the most likely place for Green Party rallying and support. The riding is squeezed between McGill University and the Plateau, both of them renowned for their lefty, greeny leanings.

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Oh you adorably myopic politico: I'm a member of 5 political parties and receive updates from all of them! I guess you could say I'm doing comparative shopping. Unfortunately no party has offered any worthwhile products lately.

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It's an odd thing, only two parties in the Canadian political spectrum have rules about exclusive membership: the NDP and the Conservatives. Discuss.

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Great map!

Just some observations on it:

The intense Liberal support in the north is from two neighbourhoods: Queen Mary (or TMR, depending on the boundary) and Parc Extension. Both are lower/middle class and increasingly immigrant populated, particularly Lebanese and Vietnamese. Parc Extension is also where a large contingent of Portugese live; however, 'Little Portugal' is located further south in the riding in the Plateau. That area is around where the NDP support shows up. The NDP support there is from the anglo student and artist communities in Mile End.

The Bloc support in Outremont (arrondissement, not riding) isn't surprising. It peters out towards the East where Parc Avenue starts and the Hassidic Jewish population begins to rise; that's where those three lone, light pink districts are shown. UdM and McGill districts are predictably Bloc and Liberal strongholds. The two districts won by the Conservatives are literally adjacent to the railroad tracks. I can't think why they'd have won those and not the similar areas adjacent and further west.

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Once again, the Green Party will fail to win an election. If they haven't been able to win a provincial seat in BC yet after being included in the debates, there is no hope for them. Besides, Canada doesn't need two green parties.

As I recall, the same predictions were made about the Bloc Quebecois and the Reform Party in the late 80s, when both were startup grassroots organizations that hadn't won any seats yet. The Reform Party, for their part, went through 3 federal elections fielding candidates without winning a single seat until 1993; 15 years later they had obliterated their closest ideological opponent and formed the government.

With all that in mind, I sincerely hope your impressions of the Green Party are accurate.

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Getting back to the bi-elections . . .

Normal Spector had a column in the Globe today about the Outremont race. I can't get the link for lack of a paid online subscription - sorry. He argued that it would hinge on Afghanistan, but politely skirted the issue of who's the front-runner. He did acknowledge that the NDP and the Conservatives would do best to team up against the Liberals in the hopes that one of them might be able to climb on top from the sides if the centrist Liberal vote was sufficiently depressed.

As far as things in Outremont go (I live there), I don't think anyone has noticed yet. There aren't many signs up and there have been no calls for donations or invitations to events for any of the parties. I doubt there will be until the last couple weeks of August. Most of the voters are probably on vacation now, so even fundraisers would be poorly attended.

Two things to keep in mind about the race:
1. It will change drastically around the first week of September. That's when all the McGill/Concordia/UQAM/U de M students will return. You can bet one of the 'frosh events' will be cavassing duties.

2. This is still very much Liberal/Bloc country. The NDP may be doing well in Quebec historically, but it's still below the threshold of a single seat. The Bloc and the Liberals both *need* a strong showing in Quebec to stave off disaster - so you can bet they'll be pulling all the stops. Also, for all the talk of the Jewish vote and alleged (Norman Spector argues 'baseless') anti-Semitism, the riding is still predominantly weathy Francophones and second-generation immigrant families. These demographic groups have been reliable Bloc and Liberal bastions, respectively, for decades - even through the 2006 election that turned everything upside down in Quebec. The Conservatives and the NDP would be wise to remember that it's an uphill battle for both of them. The Greens are regrettably off the map as far as this election goes. If it's close enough, they may end up being spoilers for one party or another, but it would be by a couple thousand votes at most.

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Coulon's statements are hardly more controversial than any of the stands taken by Mulclair on the same issue, or anything else he's happen to have done or said. The 'controversy' over Coulon stems from a single group that lodged a single protest - it's worth noting that no other Jewish groups have followed suit, nor have any Palestinian groups rushed to back Coulon. In short, the NDP's desire to make this a magic bullet that depresses Liberal support (which would be the only way the NDP could have a chance of coming close to winning) is bunk.

The NDP's hopes should be more closely pinned to the institutional and financial structure of the Liberal Party and how well it manages to organize for this election. If it's weak and the propagandistic pablum from the Conservatives about Dion is true, then the NDP has a good shot. That said, from what I've seen, the Liberals are doing a pretty good job: email canvassing, updates, recruitment for the final weeks, and show no obvious signs of incompetance or mismanagement.

As for the Bloc, there's definitely some fatigue with the brand, but no moreso than during the late 1990s when the Bloc stumbled in two elections from 54 seats to 38. The Bloc will probably be focussing their message against the Conservatives, anyway, and their constitutency across Quebec rarely overlaps with the NDP.

The Edmunston comparison is instructive. The NDP candidate won there because he successfully tapped into the burgeoning political question of the moment, seized it, and managed to pull off an upset. It was indicative of the political divisions that arose in later years and defined Quebec politics for much of the last 2 decades.

Mulclair is not in a position to repeat this. Afghanistan is the only topic that comes close to duplicating the political leverage that separatism had in the late 1980s, and its salience is considerably lower because:
a) it's a foreign issue, not domestic
b) it provokes a range of opinion (even in Quebec) that's more nuanced than the federalist/separatist divide, thus making a hardline stance on either side less tenable.

Mulclair does have the advantage of running for a party with the most consistent message on Afghanistan. Then again, the same could be said for the Conservative candidate.

Oh, and there is one other party that's gained support in Quebec since the 2006 election: The Greens, with almost double the support from 2004.

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It's equally likely that people will remember Mulclair for his time in the Liberal government and hold it against him. Keep in mind that the image of the NDP is less well-defined in Quebec; this is not to say that switching to the NDP will be completely overlooked, but they may see the switch the same way lefties see people who switch from/to the Liberals to/from the Conservatives: same sh**t, different pile.

And you're right that the NDP hasn't been publically playing up the controversy. They've actually been rather shrewd in letting the controversy play out, as it can only benefit them. All I meant to imply was that the NDP would significantly gain from such a controversy, if it had any foundation.

I'm not sure you're entirely right about the NDP only needing the Liberals to lose seats in order for the NDP to win. The Bloc placed second in Outremont last time around, and it would take a significant drop in their numbers for the NDP result to produce a win. Even if 25% of the Liberal AND Bloc support went directly to the NDP, the NDP would only win by about 1500 votes (rough estimates). A shift like that would be earthshattering, and very likely to benefit solely the NDP candidate - the Conservatives increased their vote share by double what the NDP did in 2006.

Most likely, even if they ran a lacklustre campaign, either the Liberals or the Bloc will take the seat, although by a much narrower margin than last time.

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I think we're down to splitting hairs here.

Yes, you're very right that there are lots of by-elections that have produced upsets. But as you're no doubt aware, there are countless *other* by-elections that produced the status quo.

Whether or not these by-elections fall into the former or the latter category remains to be seen. There are definitely certain factors at play in Quebec and Canada that did not exist in 2006 and no doubt will influence the election, but without polls there's no way to tell how they're playing out on the ground. It's possible that there could be an upset - in any direction (Conservative landslide, anyone? *shudder*), but there have been similar conditions for potential change that never materialized. Look at the 1997 federal election, the 1999 Ontario provincial election, or the way that the 2006 election played out in places like PEI or BC.

All this to say that at the very least, you and I will be watching this election with the closest vision and god willing, one of us will be able to gloat over the other at the end of it (the alternative to that scenario, of course, being unthinkable).

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If the NDP ends up in second place it will be by a whisker, basically tied with the BQ or the Tories, depending on how much the integrity of the Bloc has eroded. More likely is a third place showing comparable to the 2006 election or a runaway victory over all the other parties.

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I must disagree.

The Liberals are fighting tooth and nail for this riding. The party is dedicated to keeping the seat to avoid looking weak anywhere, particularly in Quebec where they feel their fortunes are most threatened by the Conservatives. Liberals, to their credit, have recognized the real threat that the NDP poses to them in that riding and are diverting their resources there - not that they'd do much good in the other by-elections, mind you.

You're also mistaken about Outremont's demographics. The U de M crowd is definitely young and lefty, but they're also quite dedicated to the separatist cause. It's 'cool' among the uni-aged students, for some reason. Nevertheless, most of the Bloc support comes from the aging, well-off, francophone boomers who live in the fancy homes and flats west of Ave du Parc. They don't lean any particular way and vote Bloc out of political and linguistic solidarity (I'm speculating) and could split to either the Liberals or the Conservatives.

This is the nut the NDP would have to crack to really change the outcome, but unfortunately it's the toughest one. Despite Jack Layton, the issues, and the Liberal misfortunes of late, the NDP doesn't have much credibility in Quebec. Mulclair is the best candidate to combat this image of 'anglo boyscouts', but it's a long road and I don't think he's traveled far enough on it, despite the good press.
The NDP has a good shot here, but it's nowhere close to even odds. Maybe 2:1. Take a look at EarlAW's map from a few posts ago and you'll see why the NDP has a tough road ahead. The areas they won last election are in the sliver of Outremont that covers the Plateau, which bears little resemblence to the rest of the riding.

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I doubt they could find many places to put up more! I'm in a cafe in Outremont right now; having completed a survey of a few neighbourhoods I counted 25 posters for the Tories, 35 for the Bloc, 38 for the Liberals and 71 for the NDP, albeit the NDP's signs are the 6X12" variety whereas the other parties use the larger traditional signs (24X30" I believe).

I did notice that well over half of the NDP's signs are concentrated in the Plateau area of Outremont, dotting almost every side street. The other parties' posters tend to be on major thoroughfares and more evenly distributed between the Plateau, Mile End, Queen Mary, Villray, and Snowdon.

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.

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Basically none, but that's not saying much. Most of Outremont is low-rise apartment buildings where the lawnspace is public, and generally off-limits as a sign of respect - it's an unofficial rule. That said, I didn't see any signs in the windows facing the streets in either commercial or residential areas.

Another probably useless observation I just made is that of vandalism. In the Plateau area the Bloc signs are almost always defaced or destroyed - Hitler mustaches are quite popular, as are swastikas in Gilles Duceppes dreamy blue eyes. By contrast, in the U de M area it's the NDP that's getting the brunt of the blow. Mulclair's beard precludes the aforementioned trope, but blotted out eyes, devil horns, and various crude speech bubbles are common. Liberal and Conservative signs are pristine by comparison, although I've noticed they tend to be placed higher and in less accessible areas (highway medians, for example).

I conducted an unofficial survey of people I bumped into on the street and stood in lines with today. The results were troubling. Out of 25 people, few were aware that an election was upcoming ("Oh, so THAT's what all those signs are for!"). When pressed, the voting intentions were surprising. The Bloc has been wiped off the map, getting only 1 vote. The NDP garnered 2. The Liberals have 10 and the Tories 5. The other 7 vowed not to vote or insisted they'd decide a few seconds in advance and no earlier.

So much for our keen prediction skills.

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I really didn't intend for my survey to be either scientific or reliable. More of a joke, but still interesting.

As for the NDP signs, I can't really explain it. There's no reason for any antipathy against the NDP like there is for the Bloc or the Liberals. Perhaps it's just the signs that stood out when I was scanning things from the street/bus.

I conducted the survey as I was running errands around Outremont. I talked to 5 people along Cote-Sainte-Cathrine near U de M, another 5 at the corner of Cote-Sainte-Cathrine and Cote-des-Neiges and the last 15 along Boul. St. Laurent between Bernard and des Pins. I think I hit 4 or 5 different neighbourhoods depending on how you draw the lines; the U de M areas were/are hardcore Bloc and I brushed the one district that the Tories won in 2006. But like I said, there's really no reason to take any of these results seriously - although they're probably the best polling that's been done so far .

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Well, that was a general election after all.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some polling closer to the election date. That in and of itself could be quite interesting. If it shows one party doing well, it may give it momentum. Whether it's the NDP or the Liberals it could upset things in a jiffy.

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Please, I beg of you, do not take my survey seriously.

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 . . . the frightening comment about Canadian democracy that is aside, I guess you're right.

Getting past the survey and back to the election now, I have a question for anyone fluent in french here. I've been scanning the Quebec french media for weeks looking for information and so far I've come up short. Opinion articles occasionally make reference to the by-elections, but only obliquely and in reference to another point. They haven't seemed to pick up on Mulclair's status (whether as an interloper, a shining star, a turncoat, a saviour, or whatever) or about the fortunes of the Liberal party, both of which have been delved into deeply by the ROC media.

Is there any explanation for this? Are there articles I've missed?

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The Gazette's doing a reasonable job, but there's very little journalism taking place. They mostly just copy stories from elsewhere.

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The NDP vote would have to be doing better than it did in the 90s; the NDP was very nearly wiped out in 1993 and 2000.

Trends as small as the ones in Ottawa-Vanier can be ascribed to personality and local popularity. It doesn't show an aggregate shift.

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Ottawa-Vanier's an interesting riding - quite large too. For one thing, it encompasses very disparate parts of the city. The bulge southwards is to a small area called 'Blackburn Hamlet' (where I used to live). It's quite lower/working class and very ethnically diverse. It's also solid Liberal country. During the last 4 elections it's been a sea of Red, with the occasional NDP sign in front of the nicer houses (I have no stats for this, it's just a personal observation).

Conversely, Ottawa-Vanier also includes Rockcliffe Park, a formally-separate village that has the highest property values in the city, and possibly the country. It's home to countless ambassadorial residences, private schools, and monocle-smiths. Strangely, this is also solid Liberal country. I think it's the old money that tends to gravitate to the movers and shakers, which have long been the Liberals.

EarlAW has mentioned Sandy Hill and Lowertown, which are trendy and working-class, respectively. Their votes do lean towards the NDP, but never in sufficient numbers to give the NDP a running chance.

The rest of the riding is lower-to-middle class suburbs and apartment buildings. It's less ethnically diverse than most other parts of the city but linguistically fragmented between anglos and francophone/allophones. The anglo population is probably the source of most of the Conservative support. Liberals, however, have managed to keep a firm lock on the vote here by virtue of the francophone candidates they consistently run. 

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so it is. My mistake.

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Indeed it is. I asked the reporter about the interview when I was visiting the Trib office this week and asked him what happened. Apparently they covered many other issues in the interview, which took about 20 minutes, but almost every answer was the textbook Conservative turn-and-spin, i.e. answering the question in the form of a criticism of the Liberals. After he pressed on the SSM issue, Duguay got flustered, angry, and then claimed he had to leave.

Brilliant journalism if I've ever seen it.