No way the Greens are at 15% in Quebec, the by-elections were clear evidence of that fact.
The by-elections saw a huge squeeze on them in Outremont from the NDP and invisible campaigns in Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe; they're not much to go on for performance in Quebec. (Similar is true of the Liberals outside Outremont and the Conservatives in Outremont.)
Would you, for example, call the Christchurch by-election in 1993 in Britain evidence that Labour were about to be destroyed in the 1997 election?
No, but it might be good evidence of the tactical voting that would be the additional kick to the Conservative Crotch in 1997
