NBC: Biden to discuss future of campaign with family tomorrow

[Tekken_Guy]

The broad agreement across the forum is unlike anything I've seen in awhile.

Is a loss probable with Harris? Maybe. Is it guaranteed with Biden? Undoubtedly. Anyone unable to make this calculation should not be taken seriously. He has dementia. Point blank.

Biden is an underdog, but he’s not a guaranteed loser. He has a 35-40% chance of winning.

How can you make this conclusion when Trump is leading in the polls? Reminder that Biden needs to win the NPV by at least 2% to have at least a 50% chance at winning the EC

Polls aren’t guaranteed to stay there forever. Plus the polls could be overestimating Trump this time. Biden’s a polling error away from victory.

[VBM]

The broad agreement across the forum is unlike anything I've seen in awhile.

Is a loss probable with Harris? Maybe. Is it guaranteed with Biden? Undoubtedly. Anyone unable to make this calculation should not be taken seriously. He has dementia. Point blank.

Biden is an underdog, but he’s not a guaranteed loser. He has a 35-40% chance of winning.

How can you make this conclusion when Trump is leading in the polls? Reminder that Biden needs to win the NPV by at least 2% to have at least a 50% chance at winning the EC

How does what they said conflict at all with Trump leading in the polls?

Because saying Biden has a 40% chance is way too generous with what the polls are showing. 10% would be more accurate (though even that might be a bit generous).

[Tekken_Guy]

The broad agreement across the forum is unlike anything I've seen in awhile.

Is a loss probable with Harris? Maybe. Is it guaranteed with Biden? Undoubtedly. Anyone unable to make this calculation should not be taken seriously. He has dementia. Point blank.

Biden is an underdog, but he’s not a guaranteed loser. He has a 35-40% chance of winning.

I mean I suppose there's always a chance Trump also has a medical emergency, but that's not a bet I'd make.

We are a very polarized nation and Trump is far too unpopular to put the race away in July. Biden’s barely down in both the PV and in the rust belt, and even up in some of them. Sun belt is a bigger problem though. Also nobody’s minds were changed about this because Biden being old was already priced in to the electorate.

[Devils30]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

[VBM]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

[Spectator]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

To Mr. X’s credit, he has reasoned that Harris would do even worse than Biden, which is valid. If you think Harris is the only one that is the feasible replacement, I can totally understand preferring Biden instead.

[WV222]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/30/biden-camp-david-family-debate-00165970

The Biden family also expected to huddle to discuss the best way to reassure Democrats that staying in the race is the right decision. The president himself was calling around to hear what his confidants thought. As Biden boarded Air Force One on Saturday, he chatted on the phone with Jon Meacham, according to photographs of the caller ID.

Non-zero chance this dissolves into a press war between the Biden family and those who doubt Biden, because I don't know how they reassure the doubters at least quickly

The blame was cast widely on staffers, including: Anita Dunn, the senior adviser who frequently has the president’s ear; her husband, Bob Bauer, the president’s attorney who played Trump in rehearsals at Camp David; and Ron Klain, the former chief of staff who ran point on the debate prep and previous cycles’ sessions.

I hope Biden doesn't do this. Firing your entire top brain trust with 5 months to go is a bad look

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

I am not Blue MAGA because I am not even a Biden supporter. Yet even I acknowledge that the race will remain competitive, even if I’d say Trump is favored at the moment. All it did was reinforce a narrative that already existed, and just made people already unlikely to vote for him not want to vote for him.

Trump is an extremely polarizing nominee attached to some toxic policy positions who barely beat out another very unpopular Democrat eight years ago. To say that he of all people is capable of a landslide victory is just as disingenuous as the people who think Biden can do the same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread title act like Biden is gonna drop out no he isn't if he did that the Fox News would be still be talking Biden

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1807533246198001877

[VBM]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

I am not Blue MAGA because I am not even a Biden supporter. Yet even I acknowledge that the race will remain competitive, even if I’d say Trump is favored at the moment. All it did was reinforce a narrative that already existed, and just made people already unlikely to vote for him not want to vote for him.

Trump is an extremely polarizing nominee attached to some toxic policy positions who barely beat out another very unpopular Democrat eight years ago. To say that he of all people is capable of a landslide victory is just as disingenuous as the people who think Biden can do the same.

Biden was up in the polls by 7 going into the last election, and he just barely squeaked by. Trump is straight up beating Biden in the national polling average, and has been consistently doing so for nearly the past year. Sure, there is a chance that the pollsters have overcorrected for Trump after embarrassing themselves in the last 2 presidential elections, but many of us assumed that the pollsters would be more accurate in 2020 than they were in 2016, and they ended up underestimating Trump even more. It is, frankly, very foolish to not operate under the assumption that Trump will more likely than not be underestimated to some extent by the polls again.

As you said, this country is very polarized. That means that Biden has a high ceiling, but it also means that it’s significantly harder to raise his poll numbers by a point, and he needs to raise his poll numbers by several points for this race to truly be competitive.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

I am not Blue MAGA because I am not even a Biden supporter. Yet even I acknowledge that the race will remain competitive, even if I’d say Trump is favored at the moment. All it did was reinforce a narrative that already existed, and just made people already unlikely to vote for him not want to vote for him.

Trump is an extremely polarizing nominee attached to some toxic policy positions who barely beat out another very unpopular Democrat eight years ago. To say that he of all people is capable of a landslide victory is just as disingenuous as the people who think Biden can do the same.

Biden was up in the polls by 7 going into the last election, and he just barely squeaked by. Trump is straight up beating Biden in the national polling average, and has been consistently doing so for nearly the past year. Sure, there is a chance that the pollsters have overcorrected for Trump after embarrassing themselves in the last 2 presidential elections, but many of us assumed that the pollsters would be more accurate in 2020 than they were in 2016, and they ended up underestimating Trump even more. It is, frankly, very foolish to not operate under the assumption that Trump will more likely than not be underestimated to some extent by the polls again.

As you said, this country is very polarized. That means that Biden has a high ceiling, but it also means that it’s significantly harder to raise his poll numbers by a point, and he needs to raise his poll numbers by several points for this race to truly be competitive.

His poll numbers indicate a competitive race, maybe with a slight Trump advantage. They don’t indicate a clear Trump blowout.

Trump+1 in the rust belt swing states means Biden’s a polling error away from sweeping the trio. I’m personally skeptical of the idea Trump can outperform polling this strong for him, and if it was Biden+5 I’d be more sold on it underestimating Trump.

My take is that it’s a reverse 2020 where Trump looks good in polling but just narrowly squeaks by at best or outright loses at worst. And I’m not yet sold he’ll win the PV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

No offense but right now you're kind of coming across as a "blue MAGA" of sorts as well - relying heavily on feelings, vibes, and loose statistical extrapolation to make your points. Biden has basically been neck in neck in polls in the "big 3" (MI, WI, PA) for quite a while now, and polling errors tend to be inconsistent across cycles; to say he's "doomed" is silly.

I feel like you're letting your own fear take over your rationality.

[ultraviolet]

Harris is the only realistic candidate to replace Biden. I’m not even sure Whitmer would agree to be put on the ticket, since if she loses her career is over through little fault of her own.

With that said, I think Harris would perform marginally better than Biden.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/1807533246198001877

This sort of ridiculous hyperbole hurts my eyes. Most of it is due to concerns regarding job security from campaign staff. He must step aside for the sake of our country and the party, anything less is unacceptable and must result in him being shunned until he drops out - Democrats have about a 5% chance at winning this race with Biden at the top of the ticket, and Harris/anyone else will instantly and automatically have a much better shot than that at holding some of the battleground states (and even expanding into NC/etc).

[7,052,770]

Harris is the only realistic candidate to replace Biden. I’m not even sure Whitmer would agree to be put on the ticket, since if she loses her career is over through little fault of her own.

If Trump wins in November, her career might as well be over anyway.

I don't know if Whitmer is the best candidate (I suspect not, honestly) but I urge her to jump in and see if she can win it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

No offense but right now you're kind of coming across as a "blue MAGA" of sorts as well - relying heavily on feelings, vibes, and loose statistical extrapolation to make your points. Biden has basically been neck in neck in polls in the "big 3" (MI, WI, PA) for quite a while now, and polling errors tend to be inconsistent across cycles; to say he's "doomed" is silly.

Yeah, the “Joevers” (i.e. VBM, Alben, BlueSwan, Horus) and the “Blue MAGA” can be equally toxic. I view things in the middle. I acknowledge the debate was bad for Biden, but also see that there’s no easy off-ramp and that if Biden loses, Dem partisans conceding the race four months out will be part of the reason why.

I see this as a reverse Access Hollywood, a scandal affecting a candidate who was trailing in the polls, that really causes the party base to tear apart and many voters to write him off, only for the candidate to surprise in the end. Trump was trailing by a lot more than Biden is now.

[Tekken_Guy]

Harris is the only realistic candidate to replace Biden. I’m not even sure Whitmer would agree to be put on the ticket, since if she loses her career is over through little fault of her own.

If Trump wins in November, her career might as well be over anyway.

I don't know if Whitmer is the best candidate (I suspect not, honestly) but I urge her to jump in and see if she can win it.

If Trump wins in November, I’m betting on her in 2028.

I’ll believe the permanent MAGA Fascist Dictatorship when I see it.

[LostInOhio]

Harris is the only realistic candidate to replace Biden. I’m not even sure Whitmer would agree to be put on the ticket, since if she loses her career is over through little fault of her own.

If Trump wins in November, her career might as well be over anyway.

I don't know if Whitmer is the best candidate (I suspect not, honestly) but I urge her to jump in and see if she can win it.

I completely disagree and feel the exact opposite.

Trump winning in November would be the absolute best thing that could happen for her career as she will likely become the new leader of the party by the end of this decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

No offense but right now you're kind of coming across as a "blue MAGA" of sorts as well - relying heavily on feelings, vibes, and loose statistical extrapolation to make your points. Biden has basically been neck in neck in polls in the "big 3" (MI, WI, PA) for quite a while now, and polling errors tend to be inconsistent across cycles; to say he's "doomed" is silly.

Yeah, the “Joevers” (i.e. VBM, Alben, BlueSwan, Horus) and the “Blue MAGA” can be equally toxic. I view things in the middle. I acknowledge the debate was bad for Biden, but also see that there’s no easy off-ramp and that if Biden loses, Dem partisans conceding the race four months out will be part of the reason why.

I see this as a reverse Access Hollywood, a scandal affecting a candidate who was trailing in the polls, that really causes the party base to tear apart and many voters to write him off, only for the candidate to surprise in the end. Trump was trailing by a lot more than Biden is now.

Yeah largely agree - I think honestly one of Biden's best strategies at this point is one of fear "we're super worried we'll lose the election" to try and help juice turnout, but they have to be careful because if it's done in the wrong way it could suppress turnout if people feel like voting is not worth it because the election is over.

I feel like generally this cycle in punditry, there's been a bias to be much harsher of Biden/lighter on Trump in a way I'm not sure is reflected in the actual population. When Dems outperform in a special election or Trump is convicted, it's all about how those things don't matter, but when Trump/Republicans have any sort of good news people pounce on it as Biden's done for. Pundits completely ignore the fact that in states like PA, WI, GA, NC, TX, MN, and AZ growth since 2020 has been extremely favorable for Dems and gives Biden a bigger "pad" for instance.

I think this is due to a combination of genuine fear on the part of Biden supporters and cockiness on the part of Trump supporters. They honestly sort of feed off eachother - cocky Trump supporters capitalizing on the concerns of Biden supporters, ect. There are very few cocky/overconfident Biden supporters or worried Trump supporters in punditry.

To me, a lot of the reasons people have Trump as a "heavy" or even "insurmountable" favorite seem somewhat irrational. Relying on these massive gains with people who have never voted before in any election (including 2020).

[Pericles]

There is clearly a consensus view among the public that Biden is not up to another four years. That is very hard to win against, even in a race to the bottom of being the most unfit candidate. It looks like the public are right though, I just can't imagine Biden being capable in January 2029. And that's what he's asking.

So he would earn back my respect if he did the right thing, if he was honest and put the country ahead of himself by 'transitioning' (as he suggested in 2020) to a candidate who can take on Trump and serve.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

No offense but right now you're kind of coming across as a "blue MAGA" of sorts as well - relying heavily on feelings, vibes, and loose statistical extrapolation to make your points. Biden has basically been neck in neck in polls in the "big 3" (MI, WI, PA) for quite a while now, and polling errors tend to be inconsistent across cycles; to say he's "doomed" is silly.

Yeah, the “Joevers” (i.e. VBM, Alben, BlueSwan, Horus) and the “Blue MAGA” can be equally toxic. I view things in the middle. I acknowledge the debate was bad for Biden, but also see that there’s no easy off-ramp and that if Biden loses, Dem partisans conceding the race four months out will be part of the reason why.

I see this as a reverse Access Hollywood, a scandal affecting a candidate who was trailing in the polls, that really causes the party base to tear apart and many voters to write him off, only for the candidate to surprise in the end. Trump was trailing by a lot more than Biden is now.

Yeah largely agree - I think honestly one of Biden's best strategies at this point is one of fear "we're super worried we'll lose the election" to try and help juice turnout, but they have to be careful because if it's done in the wrong way it could suppress turnout if people feel like voting is not worth it because the election is over.

I feel like generally this cycle in punditry, there's been a bias to be much harsher of Biden/lighter on Trump in a way I'm not sure is reflected in the actual population. When Dems outperform in a special election or Trump is convicted, it's all about how those things don't matter, but when Trump/Republicans have any sort of good news people pounce on it as Biden's done for.

I think this is due to a combination of genuine fear on the part of Biden supporters and cockiness on the part of Trump supporters. They honestly sort of feed off eachother - cocky Trump supporters capitalizing on the concerns of Biden supporters, ect. There are very few cocky/overconfident Biden supporters or worried Trump supporters in punditry.

To me, a lot of the reasons people have Trump as a "heavy" or even "insurmountable" favorite seem somewhat irrational. Relying on these massive gains with people who have never voted before in any election (including 2020).

You know this dynamic could favor Biden and Dems in a similar way Trump and the GOP benefitted in his first two elections. In 2016 for example, everyone thought Clinton had it in the bag, but because Trump voters were worried that motivated turnout on their behalf, while Clinton supporters could stay home, plus it favored the GOP downballot.

Meanwhile if people think Trump has it the public may start to think more about him than Biden. Some of his supporters may stay home out of overconfidence, while never-Trumpers coalesce around Biden out of fear. And ticket-splitting may favor Dems downballot as a check on Trump.

There was a lot of fear Biden was cooked after 10/7 or the Hur Report and a few news cycles later the race was seen as a toss-up again. Meanwhile, nobody ever really wrote Trump off after his indictments or conviction.

[Green Line]

Biden should drop and Dems should just plan to replace him at the DNC with Whitmer and deal with the fallout. It is honestly the best option of many bad ones. Biden is cooked, Harris very likely loses to Trump with some appalling margins in the rust belt that will make Hillary's look decent. At this point you have to roll the dice.

I’m not sure how anyone who doesn’t see it this way is thinking rationally.

Anyone who thinks Biden can win should be called Blue MAGA at this point

Pretty much every “Blue MAGA” poster here, even wbrocks, has let it slip that they deep down know that Biden is toast. The only exceptions seem to be Pres Mike and Mr. X for some reason. I think that these Blue MAGA posters are just so defeatist about the chances of replacing Biden that trying in vain to put the toothpaste back in the tube is all that they can do to cope with the reality of the situation.

No offense but right now you're kind of coming across as a "blue MAGA" of sorts as well - relying heavily on feelings, vibes, and loose statistical extrapolation to make your points. Biden has basically been neck in neck in polls in the "big 3" (MI, WI, PA) for quite a while now, and polling errors tend to be inconsistent across cycles; to say he's "doomed" is silly.

Yeah, the “Joevers” (i.e. VBM, Alben, BlueSwan, Horus) and the “Blue MAGA” can be equally toxic. I view things in the middle. I acknowledge the debate was bad for Biden, but also see that there’s no easy off-ramp and that if Biden loses, Dem partisans conceding the race four months out will be part of the reason why.

I see this as a reverse Access Hollywood, a scandal affecting a candidate who was trailing in the polls, that really causes the party base to tear apart and many voters to write him off, only for the candidate to surprise in the end. Trump was trailing by a lot more than Biden is now.

Yeah largely agree - I think honestly one of Biden's best strategies at this point is one of fear "we're super worried we'll lose the election" to try and help juice turnout, but they have to be careful because if it's done in the wrong way it could suppress turnout if people feel like voting is not worth it because the election is over.

I feel like generally this cycle in punditry, there's been a bias to be much harsher of Biden/lighter on Trump in a way I'm not sure is reflected in the actual population. When Dems outperform in a special election or Trump is convicted, it's all about how those things don't matter, but when Trump/Republicans have any sort of good news people pounce on it as Biden's done for.

I think this is due to a combination of genuine fear on the part of Biden supporters and cockiness on the part of Trump supporters. They honestly sort of feed off eachother - cocky Trump supporters capitalizing on the concerns of Biden supporters, ect. There are very few cocky/overconfident Biden supporters or worried Trump supporters in punditry.

To me, a lot of the reasons people have Trump as a "heavy" or even "insurmountable" favorite seem somewhat irrational. Relying on these massive gains with people who have never voted before in any election (including 2020).

You know this dynamic could favor Biden and Dems in a similar way Trump and the GOP benefitted in his first two elections. In 2016 for example, everyone thought Clinton had it in the bag, but because Trump voters were worried that motivated turnout on their behalf, while Clinton supporters could stay home, plus it favored the GOP downballot.

Meanwhile if people think Trump has it the public may start to think more about him than Biden. Some of his supporters may stay home out of overconfidence, while never-Trumpers coalesce around Biden out of fear. And ticket-splitting may favor Dems downballot as a check on Trump.

There was a lot of fear Biden was cooked after 10/7 or the Hur Report and a few news cycles later the race was seen as a toss-up again. Meanwhile, nobody ever really wrote Trump off after his indictments or conviction.

There was literally no fear that Biden was cooked after 10\7 lol.  It had nothing to do with him and to the extent it did he was getting praise.  The Hur report was also a massive nothing.

[Tekken_Guy]

There was literally no fear that Biden was cooked after 10\7 lol.

Maybe not directly after but perhaps a month or two later when Trump had sizable PV leads.