Does Jamaal Bowman's NY-16 loss imply anything about Gaza in the Presidential race?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

George Latimer has defeated Jamaal Bowman in the NY-16 Democratic primary, where obviously Gaza/Israel has been a major issue.

Obviously this primary is a very different election from the Presidential GE, but does this nevertheless tell us something relevant?

You would think that if being critical of Israel's conduct in Gaza is a winning issue, Bowman should have benefited from it in this primary. However, turnout from Jewish voters seems to have been very high and strong for Latimer. Bowman's base also includes lots of non-white (especially black) voters.

One thing we have heard being claimed about public opinion on Gaza is that allegedly minority voters in particular were supposed to be more critical of Israel and pro-Palestinian. But it appears to have not been enough at least to inspire large enough turnout for Bowman to win.

Does the result in the primary suggest that when we get to November, Gaza will be a lower profile issue than some may expect? Will Gaza lead to particularly high Jewish turnout in the General? On the pro-Palestinian side, does Bowman's loss make it less likely that Biden will be hurt by losing votes from pro-Palestinian voters than expected?



To me, the result seems to substantially weaken the argument that Biden is likely to lose a huge number of votes over this issue - especially among urban non-white voters like those in the Bronx in this district. If Biden was going to be hurt by Gaza in the General, I would have expected more enthusiasm and high turnout from all the people who polls suggest are more on the pro-Palestinian side.

[Bismarck]

The problem for Biden is both sides are unhappy with him on the issue.

[heatcharger]

Signs of a very divided party.

[axiomsofdominion]

Bowman did pretty well given the makeup of the district, even if the numbers will probably shift a bit towards Latimer as the count finishes.

But realistically Gaza just isn't an issue a majority of Americans will vote on, even if they do care about it. Americans are famously immune to voting on foreign policy.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The problem for Biden is both sides are unhappy with him on the issue.

Sure, but how strongly voters care about it is relevant. If there are lots of super motivated single issue voters, then it's a big deal. On the other hand if people will say something in response to a poll but don't care enough to turn out in a high profile special election, then it is a lot less significant. A lot of those people who care less will end up voting based on something else.

It seems like on the pro-Israel side there is high and widespread motivation among Jewish voters, but less so on the pro-Palestinian side (obviously some important areas like Dearborn MI for example could be very different though).

It seems like a lot of Jewish voters will crawl over broken glass to vote on this, but either there are simply fewer pro-Palestinian people, or they are less motivated to vote by the issue (granted it is a special election of course).

[dspNY]

Bowman did pretty well given the makeup of the district, even if the numbers will probably shift a bit towards Latimer as the count finishes.

But realistically Gaza just isn't an issue a majority of Americans will vote on, even if they do care about it. Americans are famously immune to voting on foreign policy.

Americans generally only vote on foreign policy when we have a lot of boots on the ground somewhere (2004)

[axiomsofdominion]

The problem for Biden is both sides are unhappy with him on the issue.

Sure, but how strongly voters care about it is relevant. If there are lots of super motivated single issue voters, then it's a big deal. On the other hand if people will say something in response to a poll but don't care enough to turn out in a high profile special election, then it is a lot less significant. A lot of those people who care less will end up voting based on something else.

It seems like on the pro-Israel side there is high and widespread motivation among Jewish voters, but less so on the pro-Palestinian side (obviously some important areas like Dearborn MI for example could be very different though).

It seems like a lot of Jewish voters will crawl over broken glass to vote on this, but either there are simply fewer pro-Palestinian people, or they are less motivated to vote by the issue (granted it is a special election of course).

Extreme Pro-Pals don't vote Dem in any real numbers.

[The Mikado]

Signs of a very divided party.

The closest Congressional primaries of the night are SC-03 and UT-02, both GOP races. Last week VA-05 (R) was literally 50-50. So the Democrats are the "closely divided" party compared to that? Seems all the really close primaries are GOP ones.

[dspNY]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

[axiomsofdominion]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

Did you see those new numbers in NY16? Bowman is praying that the remaining 15% of the vote is not as bad as what just happened.

[The Mikado]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

Did you see those new numbers in NY16? Bowman is praying that the remaining 15% of the vote is not as bad as what just happened.

But I have it on good authority upthread that the 60-40 race here is a sign of deeper division for Dems than the 50-50 result in VA-05 last week was for Rs.

[axiomsofdominion]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

Did you see those new numbers in NY16? Bowman is praying that the remaining 15% of the vote is not as bad as what just happened.

But I have it on good authority upthread that the 60-40 race here is a sign of deeper division for Dems than the 50-50 result in VA-05 last week was for Rs.

Dems are doing fine IMO. Biden's gonna win, the question is how the Senate and the House go.

[cuomofan]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

Did you see those new numbers in NY16? Bowman is praying that the remaining 15% of the vote is not as bad as what just happened.

But I have it on good authority upthread that the 60-40 race here is a sign of deeper division for Dems than the 50-50 result in VA-05 last week was for Rs.

Dems are doing fine IMO. Biden's gonna win, the question is how the Senate and the House go.

Misplaced confidence.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think it firmly proves that the maximalist anti-Israel position is a wholesale political loser, so expect Biden to continue to keep his distance from it.

[The Mikado]

The other thing I could see which isn't DIRECTLY related to the Presidential race, but could be interesting on the margins, is how much of a loose cannon Bowman becomes as a lame duck. Bowman is not a well-adjusted individual

Did you see those new numbers in NY16? Bowman is praying that the remaining 15% of the vote is not as bad as what just happened.

But I have it on good authority upthread that the 60-40 race here is a sign of deeper division for Dems than the 50-50 result in VA-05 last week was for Rs.

Dems are doing fine IMO. Biden's gonna win, the question is how the Senate and the House go.

I was being sarcastic and making fun of Heatcharger, of course.

I actually agree that "the Dems" are going to be fine in that I think D House is a very likely outcome whether Biden wins or Trump narrowly wins.

I'd switch your order up, I think for Dems its House > President > Senate in terms of best to worst picture. President is tough and I think people saying it's about a coinflip are right. Senate...Dems BEST case scenario is 50-50 and if Trump wins overall even that would be a GOP Senate. And even 50-50 would require a lot of lucky breaks and Dems to come close to a perfect sweep of the swing races.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Gaza aspect of this primary contest is vastly overrated, if you ask me. I've probably seen close to 100 ads from both candidates and their backers over the past two months or so. As such, I feel like a bit of an authority on this.

An underrated conclusion I draw from this is support for Biden. While AIPAC obviously supported Latimer in an effort to unseat Bowman, their anti-Bowman ads mostly focused on portraying him as too out of the mainstream for the district he represents, specifically by making him out to be a thorn in Biden's side while in the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman emphasized "Netanyahu's unpopular war and rejection of Biden's peace deal." His campaign seemed to be trying to change perceptions and make Bowman out to be a more reliable Biden agenda supporter than Latimer might be.

Long story short: support for Biden, and his agenda, might have been more of a proxy for this election with this polity.

It doesn't suggest much division in the party to me, especially with the allegedly more supportive Latimer winning pretty substantially.

I imagine dynamics will be similar with Cori Bush in August. Just because a "Squad" member got elected by successfully primarying an incumbent, it doesn't necessarily mean they're eternally right for that district, as with their predecessor.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Gaza aspect of this primary contest is vastly overrated, if you ask me. I've probably seen close to 100 ads from both candidates and their backers over the past two months or so. As such, I feel like a bit of an authority on this.

An underrated conclusion I draw from this is support for Biden. While AIPAC obviously supported Latimer in an effort to unseat Bowman, their anti-Bowman ads mostly focused on portraying him as too out of the mainstream for the district he represents, specifically by making him out to be a thorn in Biden's side while in the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman emphasized "Netanyahu's unpopular war and rejection of Biden's peace deal." His campaign seemed to be trying to change perceptions and make Bowman out to be a more reliable Biden agenda supporter than Latimer might be.

Long story short: support for Biden, and his agenda, might have been more of a proxy for this election with this polity.

It doesn't suggest much division in the party to me, especially with the allegedly more supportive Latimer winning pretty substantially.

I imagine dynamics will be similar with Cori Bush in August. Just because a "Squad" member got elected by successfully primarying an incumbent, it doesn't necessarily mean they're eternally right for that district, as with their predecessor.

I agree. This is also a dynamic in the GOP primaries, in which a lot of far-right candidates often are seen as less reliable allies of Trump and/or Mike Johnson than several mainstream GOP candidates.

It’s an argument that worked against Bob Good or Alex Mooney but is less effective against someone like MTG or Boebert.

[wnwnwn]

The Gaza aspect of this primary contest is vastly overrated, if you ask me. I've probably seen close to 100 ads from both candidates and their backers over the past two months or so. As such, I feel like a bit of an authority on this.

An underrated conclusion I draw from this is support for Biden. While AIPAC obviously supported Latimer in an effort to unseat Bowman, their anti-Bowman ads mostly focused on portraying him as too out of the mainstream for the district he represents, specifically by making him out to be a thorn in Biden's side while in the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman emphasized "Netanyahu's unpopular war and rejection of Biden's peace deal." His campaign seemed to be trying to change perceptions and make Bowman out to be a more reliable Biden agenda supporter than Latimer might be.

Long story short: support for Biden, and his agenda, might have been more of a proxy for this election with this polity.

It doesn't suggest much division in the party to me, especially with the allegedly more supportive Latimer winning pretty substantially.

I imagine dynamics will be similar with Cori Bush in August. Just because a "Squad" member got elected by successfully primarying an incumbent, it doesn't necessarily mean they're eternally right for that district, as with their predecessor.

I think Latimer used the Gaza issue to appeal to jewish voters, who also supported him for that. I think the "results, not rethoric" thing is what he actually wanted to run. Both put Biden in a corner, where he ended up doing some gaffes, which is surely what Latimer wanted. I don't think Latimer cares much about the results on policy, he cares about the party and its standing instead of purity tests. The primary was lefty insurgent vs establishment generic. I don´t think Latimer will be anything outside of a backbencher that tries to get some pork n barrel for Westchester. Outside of what AIPAC tells him, he will vote mostly with whatever the New Democrat Caucus votes.

[Inmate Trump]

The issues in Gaza are voiced by a very vocal minority that overshadows the majority. Some of its due to media biases to show a divided Democratic base.

[heatcharger]

Signs of a very divided party.

The closest Congressional primaries of the night are SC-03 and UT-02, both GOP races. Last week VA-05 (R) was literally 50-50. So the Democrats are the "closely divided" party compared to that? Seems all the really close primaries are GOP ones.

You don’t see Democrats throwing their incumbents out very often. Not ones backed by prominent former presidential candidates and the sitting House leader.

[SnowLabrador]

It implies that it's still a very salient issue for about 40% of the base. In other words, Biden is in a lose-lose situation when it comes to this issue, and the more salient it remains in the next few months, the more likely he is to lose.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It shows that powerful lobby groups that donate 15 million to a ing primary - which is more than campaign funds being spent on entire parliamentary elections in a lot of EU nations - is not normal, and should never be considered normal.

If you're disturbed about NRA, about pro-fossil fuel lobbies having a lot of influence, so should you be about AIPAC.

If you complain about Russia, China and Iran influencing your elections, so should you be about Israël and AIPAC.

Either way, i would be voting for Bowman on the WF line if i lived in NY-16 and encourage everyone to do so as well.

[axiomsofdominion]

The Gaza aspect of this primary contest is vastly overrated, if you ask me. I've probably seen close to 100 ads from both candidates and their backers over the past two months or so. As such, I feel like a bit of an authority on this.

An underrated conclusion I draw from this is support for Biden. While AIPAC obviously supported Latimer in an effort to unseat Bowman, their anti-Bowman ads mostly focused on portraying him as too out of the mainstream for the district he represents, specifically by making him out to be a thorn in Biden's side while in the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman emphasized "Netanyahu's unpopular war and rejection of Biden's peace deal." His campaign seemed to be trying to change perceptions and make Bowman out to be a more reliable Biden agenda supporter than Latimer might be.

Long story short: support for Biden, and his agenda, might have been more of a proxy for this election with this polity.

It doesn't suggest much division in the party to me, especially with the allegedly more supportive Latimer winning pretty substantially.

I imagine dynamics will be similar with Cori Bush in August. Just because a "Squad" member got elected by successfully primarying an incumbent, it doesn't necessarily mean they're eternally right for that district, as with their predecessor.

I mean, Bowman was obviously a sh**t representative and did go against Biden pretty often, mostly when his vote didn't matter however, but Israel was clearly a huge issue. Just look at the vote margins in low vs high Jewish areas. Jewish voters turned out 2.5x or more compared to any other demographic and there was an active Jewish campaign doing insanely impressive fieldwork.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The Gaza aspect of this primary contest is vastly overrated, if you ask me. I've probably seen close to 100 ads from both candidates and their backers over the past two months or so. As such, I feel like a bit of an authority on this.

An underrated conclusion I draw from this is support for Biden. While AIPAC obviously supported Latimer in an effort to unseat Bowman, their anti-Bowman ads mostly focused on portraying him as too out of the mainstream for the district he represents, specifically by making him out to be a thorn in Biden's side while in the House.

Meanwhile, Bowman emphasized "Netanyahu's unpopular war and rejection of Biden's peace deal." His campaign seemed to be trying to change perceptions and make Bowman out to be a more reliable Biden agenda supporter than Latimer might be.

Long story short: support for Biden, and his agenda, might have been more of a proxy for this election with this polity.

It doesn't suggest much division in the party to me, especially with the allegedly more supportive Latimer winning pretty substantially.

I imagine dynamics will be similar with Cori Bush in August. Just because a "Squad" member got elected by successfully primarying an incumbent, it doesn't necessarily mean they're eternally right for that district, as with their predecessor.

I mean, Bowman was obviously a sh**t representative and did go against Biden pretty often, mostly when his vote didn't matter however, but Israel was clearly a huge issue. Just look at the vote margins in low vs high Jewish areas. Jewish voters turned out 2.5x or more compared to any other demographic and there was an active Jewish campaign doing insanely impressive fieldwork.

15 million, money does a lot.