Fox: Biden +2 H2H, +1 vs field
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  Fox: Biden +2 H2H, +1 vs field		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Fox: Biden +2 H2H, +1 vs field  (Read 1887 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: June 19, 2024, 05:09:57 PM »
« edited: June 19, 2024, 05:18:43 PM by GeorgiaModerate »
Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 48% (-1)

Trump +1 last month

Biden 43% (+3)
Trump 42% (-1)
RFK Jr. 10% (-1)
West 2% (=)
Stein 2% (=)

Trump +3 last month

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may

Biden's highest support ever in a Fox poll this cycle.
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2024, 05:10:55 PM »
Bad poll for Trump.
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Spectator
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2024, 05:12:07 PM »
Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2024, 05:12:45 PM »
Very welcome. And consistent with a 3 point post conviction shift.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2024, 05:13:38 PM »
The key is that Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2.

Yeah, this is a trend now. We have seen it nearly every major poll - Fox, Marist, CBS/YouGov, Echelon, Cygnal. Independents have moved significantly post-conviction.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2024, 05:16:18 PM »
Trump up only by 5 with white voters... Looks like Jack Black has secured Iowa for Biden
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2024, 05:16:45 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on June 19, 2024, 05:12:07 PM
Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2024, 05:20:01 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 19, 2024, 05:13:38 PM
The key is that Independents favor Biden by 9 points, a shift from May when they preferred Trump by 2.

Yeah, this is a trend now. We have seen it nearly every major poll - Fox, Marist, CBS/YouGov, Echelon, Cygnal. Independents have moved significantly post-conviction.

Looks like post-conviction bounce.

Trump needs SCOTUS to come to the rescue.
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Matty
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2024, 05:20:30 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 19, 2024, 05:16:45 PM
Quote from: Spectator on June 19, 2024, 05:12:07 PM
Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling

You absolutely melted like a candle at those fox state polls, accusing them of being insane, inaccurate, and worthy of being tossed in the trash.

Yet now you are taking a complete opposite stance on this national poll.

Why?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2024, 05:20:52 PM »
RFK's trend line in the article (https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may) has a perfectly consistent slope: 15-14-13-12-11-10.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2024, 05:21:39 PM »
Quote from: Matty on June 19, 2024, 05:20:30 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 19, 2024, 05:16:45 PM
Quote from: Spectator on June 19, 2024, 05:12:07 PM
Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling

You absolutely melted like a candle at those fox state polls, accusing them of being insane, inaccurate, and worthy of being tossed in the trash.

Yet now you are taking a complete opposite stance on this national poll.

Why?

I have literally not taken a stance at all in this thread besides saying how Independents have moved in many polls, which is a fact. And I literally just said - in the post you quoted - that this doesn't make sense with their state polling. You people are just putting stuff in my mouth at this point. Again, have no idea why some of you are so insanely obsessed with my posts.
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Ljube
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« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2024, 05:21:52 PM »

Where will it end by election day?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2024, 05:22:45 PM »
RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2024, 05:23:14 PM »
Quote from: Matty on June 19, 2024, 05:20:30 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 19, 2024, 05:16:45 PM
Quote from: Spectator on June 19, 2024, 05:12:07 PM
Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling

You absolutely melted like a candle at those fox state polls, accusing them of being insane, inaccurate, and worthy of being tossed in the trash.

Yet now you are taking a complete opposite stance on this national poll.

Why?

Huh?  He simply pointed out that the two aren't consistent.   You're reading a whole lot into his response.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2024, 05:23:32 PM »

My over/under for his vote total is 3%.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2024, 05:26:16 PM »
Quote from: President Punxsutawney Phil on June 19, 2024, 05:22:45 PM
RFK seems to be a repository for the "screw the big parties" vote. Most of that vote c. March 2024 does look likely to ultimately decide between one of the major candidates.

That has been obvious to many of us for a while now, but some refuse to realize it
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Matty
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2024, 05:30:23 PM »
Interesting note:

Per this poll, the conviction was not notable at all regarding shifts. 2% said it made them less likely, 1% more likely, to support trump
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Ljube
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2024, 05:33:30 PM »
Quote from: Matty on June 19, 2024, 05:30:23 PM
Interesting note:

Per this poll, the conviction was not notable at all regarding shifts. 2% said it made them less likely, 1% more likely, to support trump


In that case the shift is just statistical noise.
We'll know more when we get the next Fox News poll.

The poll is left leaning anyway.
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Horus
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« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2024, 05:43:21 PM »
FOX is a shade D leaning, but this is still a good poll for Biden, and very needed after the Selzer disaster Monday.
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axiomsofdominion
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« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2024, 05:50:01 PM »
So this is a 3.5% consistent average movement between head to head and field. This is exactly the kind of result I was predicting for QPac, be fantastic to get them tomorrow on trend. Only if we are lucky, though.

What a lot of people can't understand is that state models are much harder to do well.

A couple more good polls, from the serious pollsters, and Biden will start leading RCP *and* 538.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2024, 05:54:56 PM »
Quote from: Horus on June 19, 2024, 05:43:21 PM
FOX is a shade D leaning, but this is still a good poll for Biden, and very needed after the Selzer disaster Monday.

Hilariously, this is true and balanced by CNN as R leaning in polls. Would be very funny if this Biden +2 Fox poll ends up contradicted by a Trump +3 CNN poll.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2024, 05:57:17 PM »
Quote from: Horus on June 19, 2024, 05:43:21 PM
FOX is a shade D leaning, but this is still a good poll for Biden, and very needed after the Selzer disaster Monday.

Yep, that Selzer poll made me think maybe Trump is favored in Iowa.

No one poll, this one or the Selzer Iowa poll, means enough for anyone to change their general view of the race. And no state poll means much of anything about other states.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2024, 05:59:06 PM »
Boo.
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axiomsofdominion
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« Reply #23 on: June 19, 2024, 06:00:05 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on June 19, 2024, 05:54:56 PM
Quote from: Horus on June 19, 2024, 05:43:21 PM
FOX is a shade D leaning, but this is still a good poll for Biden, and very needed after the Selzer disaster Monday.

Hilariously, this is true and balanced by CNN as R leaning in polls. Would be very funny if this Biden +2 Fox poll ends up contradicted by a Trump +3 CNN poll.

Given the previous poll was Trump +6, a CNN Trump +3 poll would actually be good news for Biden.

Personally I expect something like Biden +3 with their previous poll having been an outlier. Wouldn't be the largest CNN swing I've ever seen.
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dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: June 19, 2024, 06:06:14 PM »

My guess is 5%.
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