What areas see the biggest turnout increases and declines relative to 2020?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In 2020, the biggest turnout increases were generally in the Western US, especially the southwest around many of these fast growing cities like Phoenix and Austin with heavily non-white populations. AZ and TX in particular had a lot of communities with large jumps in turnout due to the influx of new investment.

On the flip side, the few turnout declines tended to come from heavily black cities in the Eastern US. This was particularly prominent in black communities in Ohio like Cleveland, likely in part due to the drop-off in investment from 2016 in the state.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The black inner cities of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia could see turnout decrease significantly. Polling indicates black voters are not excited for Biden. He will consolidate them eventually but they aren't guaranteed to turn out in high numbers.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The black inner cities of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia could see turnout decrease significantly. Polling indicates black voters are not excited for Biden. He will consolidate them eventually but they aren't guaranteed to turn out in high numbers.

What do you think of the reverse argument that these communities already had decreased turnout in 2020 so there's less room for Democrats to fall? Some seem to argue that lack of in-person campaigning by Dems in 2020 disproportionately hurt them in black communities and so things should revert a bit in 2024.

I personally agree though that low black turnout is more of a problem for Biden than large quantities of black voters flipping to Trump.