USA Today/Gallup sez Clinton +16, Giuliani +10 in primary...

[Sam Spade]

Yes, I know...  Summer polls and all.  And on a weekend.  I agree with my own analysis.  Still, it should be posted...

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/usatgallup-poll.html

The link says that more results should be available in tomorrow's USA Today.

Topline numbers

Dem Primary
Clinton 37% (+4)
Obama 21% (+0)
Gore 16% (-2)
Edwards 13% (+2)
Others 8% (note for mitty: Dodd was at 0%, worse than Gravel)
Undecided 5%

Dem Primary (w/Gore)
Clinton 42%
Obama 26%
Edwards 16%
Others 11%
Undecided 5%

GOP Primary
Giuliani 30% (+2)
Thompson 20% (+1)
McCain 16% (-2)
Romney 9% (+2)
Gingrich 6% (-1)
Others 9% (note: Paul and Gilmore were at 0%)
Undecided 10%

The poll said the numbers didn't change much if Gingrich was out - of course neither did the Dem numbers, but we'll just have to wait. 

[Eraserhead]

No fundraising bump for Obama at all? A little hard to believe. Gallup is pretty bad these days.

[poughies]

Clinton has shown me no reason to dislike her more in the debates..... Obama left in my opinion a lasting impression when I watch him perform in the South Carolina debate... though his rebuke of Edwards in New Hampshire was nothing short of fantastic.

My point is that if I was called I wouldn't see any reason to go all of a sudden for obama despite fundraising... though i don't support either candidate.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, I know...  Summer polls and all.  And on a weekend.  I agree with my own analysis.  Still, it should be posted...

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2007/07/usatgallup-poll.html

The link says that more results should be available in tomorrow's USA Today.

Topline numbers

Dem Primary
Clinton 37% (+4)
Obama 21% (+0)
Gore 16% (-2)
Edwards 13% (+2)
Others 8% (note for mitty: Dodd was at 0%, worse than Gravel)
Undecided 5%

Dem Primary (w/Gore)
Clinton 42%
Obama 26%
Edwards 16%
Others 11%
Undecided 5%

GOP Primary
Giuliani 30% (+2)
Thompson 20% (+1)
McCain 16% (-2)
Romney 9% (+2)
Gingrich 6% (-1)
Others 9% (note: Paul and Gilmore were at 0%)
Undecided 10%

The poll said the numbers didn't change much if Gingrich was out - of course neither did the Dem numbers, but we'll just have to wait. 

This poll is defective for reasons going beyond being a summer and weekend poll.

First is the matter of size: 394 Republicans and leaners, 516 Democrats and leaners.

Second, there aren’t Likely Voters (the best), or Registered Partisans (second best), but rather someone who answered the survey and was thereupon classified in one of two categories.

Three, it outside the margin of error for Republicans cadidates..

Candidate          Gallup/usa today          Rasmussen          Difference

Giuliani                   30                                 24                      +6
Thompson               20                                 27                       -7
McCain                   16                                 12                      +4
Romney                    9                                 13                       -4

George is probably spinning in his grave.

[Verily]

No fundraising bump for Obama at all? A little hard to believe. Gallup is pretty bad these days.

Why would fundraising numbers immediately improve his poll numbers? Look for improvement in the early three (maybe four if people start paying attention to Nevada) as Obama spends his money, but not immediately.

[Eraserhead]

No fundraising bump for Obama at all? A little hard to believe. Gallup is pretty bad these days.

Why would fundraising numbers immediately improve his poll numbers? Look for improvement in the early three (maybe four if people start paying attention to Nevada) as Obama spends his money, but not immediately.

He did get a slight bump after the Q1 numbers were reported in the media. Positive coverage is positive coverage.