Trump *has* to improve on persuasion to stay viable

[ProgressiveModerate]

No, I don't just say this because he already lost in 2020.

I say this because all else being equal, the electorate has become worse for Trump since 2020.

For one, most of the 2020 voters who have died since 2020 have been Trump voters - the magnitude of this is up for debate, but Trump voters are on average older, in poorer health, and less likely to believe in modern medicine. Additionally, people who have aged into the electorate almost certainly lean towards Biden (even if it's not by the same margins as they have historically).

Secondly, in nearly all of the remotely competitive states (except arguably NV and AZ), the fastest growing area tends to be the bluest area and heavily blue shifting areas. Also nearly everywhere is increasingly nonwhite (and nonwhite voters still mostly vote to the left of white voters). Below is a list of some of the clearest cut examples of fastest growth being in high turnout Dem parts of key states:

Virginia: NoVa/Dc Suburbs
Maine: The greater Portland area
Minnesota: MSP - Minneapolis proper and the outer suburbs (which are pretty blue already)
Pennsylvania: Nearly all of SEPA, especially downtown Philly
Wisconsin: Greater Madison
Georgia: Metro Atlanta from downtown to outer suburbs/exurbs
North Carolina: Durham/Raleigh area and greater Charlotte
Texas: Greater Austin, with Dallas, Houston, and San Antonion also seeing impressive growth
Ohio: Greater Columbus
Iowa: Greater Deez Moines

If you were to replay the 2020 election with the same persuasion but on 2024 demographics, Biden would likely grow his margins in most of the key states, flip NC, and come close in Texas. The gap Trump actually has to close is a bit larger than it seems, and this is part of the reason I believe many are underestimating Biden's chances

A fun thought exercise is to imagine what Obama's 2008 or 2012 wins would've looked like on 2024 demographics. In Georgia for instance, Biden 2020 did worse than Obama 2008 and 2012 with nearly every demographic except college educated whites (which are a pretty small minority of the electorate), yet was able to swing the state 5% towards him in large part because of Blacks and Metro Atlanta making up larger shares of the electorate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump is looking at the polls and not going to change anything, perhaps rightly so.

However, Trump is often at his most self-destructive when he gets over-confident. Let him be that way.

[GAinDC]

Good analysis

Why do you think Trump is doing these campaign events in inner cities? It’s definitely a stunt, but it’s based in the Republicans’ need to perform better in metropolitan areas.

I don’t think Trump will be able to break through this year for many reasons but I think a future Republican will.

[SnowLabrador]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

[DrScholl]

Good analysis

Why do you think Trump is doing these campaign events in inner cities? It’s definitely a stunt, but it’s based in the Republicans’ need to perform better in metropolitan areas.

I don’t think Trump will be able to break through this year for many reasons but I think a future Republican will.

It's not even an actually strategy for votes. He wants desperately make himself appear to be the choice of everyone and have everyone on his side for purely aesthetic reasons.

[Alben Barkley]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, his credibility is shot he is a criminal

[Green Line]

If Trump doesn't convince enough voters to vote for him, he will lose, yes.

[Tekken_Guy]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

How about we don't give up in June just yet. Biden is well within the margin of holding the Rust Belt Trio and winning.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Trump doesn't need to improve on persuasion yet. Get him started on the Victorian classics in the run-up to the convention: Pride and Prejudice, Jane Eyre, Middlemarsh, some Dickens. Then we can feed him Persuasion before the second debate. Keep him going on the great works after that and sooner or later, the old chestnut will read "We will pay anything for Lucia books" - Noel Coward, Gertrude Lawrence, Nancy Mitford, W.H. Auden, Donald Trump.

[Samof94]

No, I don't just say this because he already lost in 2020.

I say this because all else being equal, the electorate has become worse for Trump since 2020.

For one, most of the 2020 voters who have died since 2020 have been Trump voters - the magnitude of this is up for debate, but Trump voters are on average older, in poorer health, and less likely to believe in modern medicine. Additionally, people who have aged into the electorate almost certainly lean towards Biden (even if it's not by the same margins as they have historically).

Secondly, in nearly all of the remotely competitive states (except arguably NV and AZ), the fastest growing area tends to be the bluest area and heavily blue shifting areas. Also nearly everywhere is increasingly nonwhite (and nonwhite voters still mostly vote to the left of white voters). Below is a list of some of the clearest cut examples of fastest growth being in high turnout Dem parts of key states:

Virginia: NoVa/Dc Suburbs
Maine: The greater Portland area
Minnesota: MSP - Minneapolis proper and the outer suburbs (which are pretty blue already)
Pennsylvania: Nearly all of SEPA, especially downtown Philly
Wisconsin: Greater Madison
Georgia: Metro Atlanta from downtown to outer suburbs/exurbs
North Carolina: Durham/Raleigh area and greater Charlotte
Texas: Greater Austin, with Dallas, Houston, and San Antonion also seeing impressive growth
Ohio: Greater Columbus
Iowa: Greater Deez Moines

If you were to replay the 2020 election with the same persuasion but on 2024 demographics, Biden would likely grow his margins in most of the key states, flip NC, and come close in Texas. The gap Trump actually has to close is a bit larger than it seems, and this is part of the reason I believe many are underestimating Biden's chances

A fun thought exercise is to imagine what Obama's 2008 or 2012 wins would've looked like on 2024 demographics. In Georgia for instance, Biden 2020 did worse than Obama 2008 and 2012 with nearly every demographic except college educated whites (which are a pretty small minority of the electorate), yet was able to swing the state 5% towards him in large part because of Blacks and Metro Atlanta making up larger shares of the electorate.

Come to think of it, the GOP might have struggled in 2022 as many of their voters were deceased.

[7,052,770]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one.

I wouldn't get too bent out of shape over that. Republicans spent the summers of 2016 and 2020 insisting that Trump would get 20-30% of the black vote, citing "the polls."

[Zenobiyl]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

How about we don't give up in June just yet. Biden is well within the margin of holding the Rust Belt Trio and winning.

Alben’s not saying to give up, but to acknowledge that Biden’s the heavy underdog right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

How about we don't give up in June just yet. Biden is well within the margin of holding the Rust Belt Trio and winning.

Alben’s not saying to give up, but to acknowledge that Biden’s the heavy underdog right now.

He is not a heavy underdog. He's a slight one at worst and has no worse than a 40% chance to win in my opinion. He's well within the margin of error in the states he needs to win.

[ProgressiveModerate]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one.

I wouldn't get too bent out of shape over that. Republicans spent the summers of 2016 and 2020 insisting that Trump would get 20-30% of the black vote, citing "the polls."

Yeah I don't believe the Trump will get 20% of the black vote narrative until I see it.

For one in 2020 his gains with black voters were pretty modest, especially relative to Black and Hispanic voters. Then in 2022 black voters barely budged - even in cases where the GOP was performing well statewide like FL and NY - heavily black communities were some of the least reactive to these localized waves. The warning signs in 2022 about black voters for Dems were more an issue of poor turnout as opposed to persuasion, but black turnout is usually bad in midterms.

[BlueSwan]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

Yup, I've been saying this for many months now.

The "demographics is destiny" theory is nonsense anyway. Minorities are clearly moving towards the GOP as cultural issues become more salient. COVID broke a lot of peoples brains and wokeness is extremely unpopular outside of white college campuses.

[heatcharger]

The "demographics is destiny" theory is nonsense anyway. Minorities are clearly moving towards the GOP as cultural issues become more salient. COVID broke a lot of peoples brains and wokeness is extremely unpopular outside of white college campuses.

Interesting.

[ProgressiveModerate]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

Yup, I've been saying this for many months now.

The "demographics is destiny" theory is nonsense anyway. Minorities are clearly moving towards the GOP as cultural issues become more salient. COVID broke a lot of peoples brains and wokeness is extremely unpopular outside of white college campuses.

I think Dems need to work on better messaging here - the "woke blue haired progressive" types Conservatives love to dunk on are in practice not a very large portion of the Democratic Party - infact many of those types oppose Biden and mainstream Dems for not being progressive enough.

To me this is the big difference between the modern day left and right that makes me lean towards Democrats. The far-right very openly embraces Trump while the far-left largely hates Biden and most mainstream Dem politicians.

[ProgressiveModerate]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

I feel like this post completely ignores the point I was making which is that all else being equal, Biden's + 0.6% win in WI would really be more like a 3% win today - his buffer is bigger than you're assuming.

There's actually a pretty strong argument that Biden 2020 did *worse* than Clinton on persuasion but still won due to favorable growth and turnout.

[HisGrace]

There's no evidence Trump has picked up a single additional voter from last time, or even that he's retained the small number of additional voters he picked up in 2020. He's consistently polling in the low to mid 40's and only leads due to the large number of undecideds and the 7-8 percent of Kennedy voters which I seriously doubt will hold up on election day. People acting like this was over were never being serious.

Lol, his credibility is shot he is a criminal

Owned by facts and logic. olawakandi is reality.

[DaleCooper]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

Yup, I've been saying this for many months now.

The "demographics is destiny" theory is nonsense anyway. Minorities are clearly moving towards the GOP as cultural issues become more salient. COVID broke a lot of peoples brains and wokeness is extremely unpopular outside of white college campuses.

He didn't say demographics are destiny, he pointed out that the growing parts of the swing states are very blue and the dying parts of the swing states are very red.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No D that's voting for Biden is listening to Alben Barkley he had an R nut map in 22 and it was wrong  and he had been saying the samething for months

I over predict not underpred because the polls can be wrong on Ds chances look at Barkley R nut map in 22 NV going R

[Yoda]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

I feel like this post completely ignores the point I was making which is that all else being equal, Biden's + 0.6% win in WI would really be more like a 3% win today - his buffer is bigger than you're assuming.

There's actually a pretty strong argument that Biden 2020 did *worse* than Clinton on persuasion but still won due to favorable growth and turnout.

I think there's an argument to be made that Wisconsin doesn't even end up being that close at all (at least not by recent WI standards, I mean). Democrats absolutely romped in the WI SC election, performed way better than expected in '22 in general, and WI seems to be turning into fool's gold statewide for Republicans b/c of how overwhelmingly Democratic Milwaukee and Dane have become.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Yes, that slimeball traitor Johnson pulled out a win against a Dem challenger who was not properly funded or supported, IMO. It was winnable and we blew it.

trump has too many weaknesses though, and b/c of the new state legislature maps Democrats are going to be tripping over themselves to vote this November. Another thing I think a lot of people are missing is that the Democratic Super PACs have not laid a finger on trump yet. The whole country (well, at least the swing states) is going to be reminded of the Access Hollywood tape, the mocking of the disabled, trump's vile disrespect of those who serve our country, trump's ties to Epstein and his trips to Pedophile Island, his criminal convictions, his attempts to steal the 2020 election, the violent trump mobs and the dead cops on January 6th, etc.

[DaleCooper]

I would absolutely never call Wisconsin "fool's gold" for Republicans, but I have said before that I think Wisconsin's future looks more like Minnesota than it does any other state, especially one like Iowa.

Johnson definitely would've lost if Democrats took the race seriously. They didn't even need a different candidate. Barnes would've won had he been given the necessary support and funding.

[ProgressiveModerate]

But he has improved on persuasion if polling is to be believed. He's getting 20+% with black voters, for one. And he doesn't even need young voters to vote for him; he merely needs them to not vote for Biden out of apathy or anger over Gaza.

I can’t believe I’m saying this but you’re right. It’s like everyone forgets Biden only won in 2020 by barely winning WI/GA/AZ by the skin of his teeth, a fraction of a percentage point in each. In fact, he won them all combined by less than Trump won the rust belt trio in 2016, and that was treated as an absurdly close fluke! Yet he won the decisive states that year by a combined margin greater than that with which Biden won the decisive states in 2020, making the latter actually a closer election! If Biden loses ANY ground at all, he is FINISHED. This has ALWAYS been true. He NEEDED to be able to EXPAND his map. Any talk of simply holding, let alone losing, ground yet somehow still winning has always been extremely risky and dangerous and implausible. Yet now GA and AZ look gone and WI is the state that polled Hillary +9 and Biden +17 shortly before the last couple elections and STILL Trump is now outright LEADING there for pretty much the first time ever! It is INSANE that Biden’s team thinks they can rely on any of these states to vote for him again! Especially when polling is FAR WORSE now!

The ONLY conclusion a remotely logical and objective person can reach at this time is that Biden looks to be Kentucky Fried Chicken. I’m sorry, I hate it as much or more than any of you. But it is the reality. If you want to change it, you must first accept it. And if nothing else, bracing yourself now might make November slightly less painful.

I feel like this post completely ignores the point I was making which is that all else being equal, Biden's + 0.6% win in WI would really be more like a 3% win today - his buffer is bigger than you're assuming.

There's actually a pretty strong argument that Biden 2020 did *worse* than Clinton on persuasion but still won due to favorable growth and turnout.

I think there's an argument to be made that Wisconsin doesn't even end up being that close at all (at least not by recent WI standards, I mean). Democrats absolutely romped in the WI SC election, performed way better than expected in '22 in general, and WI seems to be turning into fool's gold statewide for Republicans b/c of how overwhelmingly Democratic Milwaukee and Dane have become.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/gop-college-towns-00106974?utm_source=pocket-newtab


Yes, that slimeball traitor Johnson pulled out a win against a Dem challenger who was not properly funded or supported, IMO. It was winnable and we blew it.

trump has too many weaknesses though, and b/c of the new state legislature maps Democrats are going to be tripping over themselves to vote this November. Another thing I think a lot of people are missing is that the Democratic Super PACs have not laid a finger on trump yet. The whole country (well, at least the swing states) is going to be reminded of the Access Hollywood tape, the mocking of the disabled, trump's vile disrespect of those who serve our country, trump's ties to Epstein and his trips to Pedophile Island, his criminal convictions, his attempts to steal the 2020 election, the violent trump mobs and the dead cops on January 6th, etc.

I don't think WI was fools gold, but I think favorable Dem growth dynamics helped make the state better than expected for Dems in 2022. One big factor was high Dane County relative to 2020 - some attribute this to Dane County being relatively high propensity (which I think is true), but if you look at a precinct map, you'll see there's a ring of precincts around Madison that saw very clear increases in their raw vote totals 2020-->2022, which is likely due to growth just in the past 2 years. Another small factor was college students being back on campus in the UW Madison area - one precinct went from giving Biden just 365 votes to giving Barnes 999.