6/18 Congressional Primaries Discussion: VA, OK, GA

[Proud Independent]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Wow Dems actually nominated Vindman

[Nyvin]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

Yeah, if Good got Trump's endorsement he'd be winning with 70%+ right now.

[Spectator]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

[Utah Neolib]

Is Albemarle done?

[Roll Roons]

Is Albemarle done?

According to VPAP, yes.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

[Proud Independent]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

Yeah, if Good got Trump's endorsement he'd be winning with 70%+ right now.

Exactly. The establishment has already tried to take out both MTG and Gatez in previous cycles and has miserably failed. Trump endorsing the establishment's preferred candidate could be the match that starts the flame.

[Proud Independent]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1803262096487928297

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Yeah, that's a good point. Boebert might be a different story because CO-04 is far more suburban and educated than most Safe R districts and she might be uniquely toxic in Douglas County. But the split field is her best friend this year. We'll see how strong her floor of support is next week.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder if Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush will hold up better than expected in their upcoming races?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I wonder if Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush will hold up better than expected in their upcoming races?

Bowman definitely won't - his tactics have gotten so extreme and scattered that he's got the entire Dem party almost coming out to endorse his opponent right before the election, and record-high turnout in Jewish areas of the district. It's fascinating in how bad he's doing.

Bush, I can't say as well because the NY race has sucked all the air out of the room.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1803266692845543670

[Proud Independent]

I wonder if Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush will hold up better than expected in their upcoming races?

Bowman definitely won't - his tactics have gotten so extreme and scattered that he's got the entire Dem party almost coming out to endorse his opponent right before the election, and record-high turnout in Jewish areas of the district. It's fascinating in how bad he's doing.

Bush, I can't say as well because the NY race has sucked all the air out of the room.

Keep in mind this was taken in February, but it appears Bush is in the same boat as Bowman if not worse.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4464073-cori-bush-trailing-democratic-primary-challenger-by-22-points-poll/

[S019]

Kind of surprised Good didn't get Blanched given the Republican establishment and Donald Trump were both agitating to get him out. Freedom caucus members didn't seem too enthused about him either from what I saw of Warren Davidson on CNN.

[Roll Roons]

Kind of surprised Good didn't get Blanched given the Republican establishment and Donald Trump were both agitating to get him out. Freedom caucus members didn't seem too enthused about him either from what I saw of Warren Davidson on CNN.

I guess the district just has a large base of religious conservatives who are very loyal to him.

[The Mikado]

If Bob Good really wants to stick it to Johnson etc for not trying hard enough to save him, he could just resign immediately and leave his seat vacant for a while. Just a thought, not sure he's petty enough to actually do that.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/SenatorHashmi/status/1803231429662290000

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

If Bob Good really wants to stick it to Johnson etc for not trying hard enough to save him, he could just resign immediately and leave his seat vacant for a while. Just a thought, not sure he's petty enough to actually do that.

Meh, it's not as consequential as it once could've been, now that Rs have held CA-21 and OH-6. Even if Dems get CO-4, four Republicans plus Good would have to leave to get Speaker Jeffries 215-214 in September.

[LabourJersey]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

[LtNOWIS]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

[Roll Roons]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

Because delays give bad actors room to claim that there's something wrong.

[kyc0705]

The ineptitude of vote counting in the US is pretty stunning. Many countries with relatively "complex" electoral systems can produce results quickly, where even if results are not immediate, it's certainly not normal to wait several days for one local seat.

[LabourJersey]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

Because delays give bad actors room to claim that there's something wrong.

Yeah, this is the biggest reason. It also fans the flames of RCV critics as well.