Minnesota is in play now

[Woody]

With all the polls showing a tight race and the recent Selzer Iowa drop, do you think Trump is putting Minnesota in play?

[DS0816]

With all the polls showing a tight race and the recent Selzer Iowa drop, do you think Trump is putting Minnesota in play?

I think it will be, as it was in 2016 and 2020, the Republicans’s No. 32 best state.

Currently, I predict 31 for a 2024 Republican pickup winning Donald Trump.

[Eraserhead]

I think Biden wins there but barely.

[forza nocta]

He'll lose MN by 6-7 points in November

[Sol]

Yeah it's definitely in play; seems like a plausible-ish Indiana 2008-type win for Trump.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

If Trump is winning by that much in IA, that likely means rural MN is also gonna shift right as they are identical demographically. The only question is which way MSP metro shifts.

[Minnesota Mike]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

- Whether or not it's in play depends on how you define "in play". Sure Trump could win but it's unlikely IMO. Trump plays horribly in the TC suburbs and that's where he needs to improve if he is to have a chance.

[Progressive Pessimist]

There was a poll with Biden ahead by four just about a week ago.

It's not the most spectacular lead, but I seriously don't think Iowa is representative of its neighboring states anymore. Minnesota and Wisconsin have their own quirks and better institutional state Democratic parties.

[Sol]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

There was a poll with Biden ahead by four just about a week ago.

It's not the most spectacular lead, but I seriously don't think Iowa is representative of its neighboring states anymore. Minnesota and Wisconsin have their own quirks and better institutional state Democratic parties.

It obviously isn't relevant for all of Minnesota -- the Twin Cities are of course a different place -- but it's extremely relevant for the rest of the state, and that's about half of it! Even if Biden's vote holds steady in the Twin Cities a major swing elsewhere is still extremely harmful. What's irrational is saying that Iowa is totally unrelated to MN, WI, etc. when we've seen that swings in Iowa tend to be paralleled in neighboring states.

Please don't delude yourself when the reasons to be concerned are extremely rational! If we're going to get out of the next Trump administration with minimal harm, we need to be very clear about where we are.

[Minnesota Mike]

If Trump is winning by that much in IA, that likely means rural MN is also gonna shift right as they are identical demographically. The only question is which way MSP metro shifts.

Maybe a small portion of MN is similar to rural IA but not that much and that portion is already pretty pro Trump. Minnesota is much more urban/suburban than Iowa and historically more lefty. There is no Iowa equivalent to Minneapolis/St Paul where Democrats will get 80%+ of the vote and TC suburbs are much more Democratic than anything similar in Iowa.

[Minnesota Mike]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

There was a poll with Biden ahead by four just about a week ago.

It's not the most spectacular lead, but I seriously don't think Iowa is representative of its neighboring states anymore. Minnesota and Wisconsin have their own quirks and better institutional state Democratic parties.

It obviously isn't relevant for all of Minnesota -- the Twin Cities are of course a different place -- but it's extremely relevant for the rest of the state, and that's about half of it! Even if Biden's vote holds steady in the Twin Cities a major swing elsewhere is still extremely harmful. What's irrational is saying that Iowa is totally unrelated to MN, WI, etc. when we've seen that swings in Iowa tend to be paralleled in neighboring states.

Please don't delude yourself when the reasons to be concerned are extremely rational! If we're going to get out of the next Trump administration with minimal harm, we need to be very clear about where we are.

But rural MN is not half the state. The 7 county metro is about 56% of the population. The 5 largest cities in outstate MN (Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Moorhead, and Mankato) are about 6% (and voted 60-37 Biden) leaving about 38% as rural/small outstate cities.

[Sol]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

There was a poll with Biden ahead by four just about a week ago.

It's not the most spectacular lead, but I seriously don't think Iowa is representative of its neighboring states anymore. Minnesota and Wisconsin have their own quirks and better institutional state Democratic parties.

It obviously isn't relevant for all of Minnesota -- the Twin Cities are of course a different place -- but it's extremely relevant for the rest of the state, and that's about half of it! Even if Biden's vote holds steady in the Twin Cities a major swing elsewhere is still extremely harmful. What's irrational is saying that Iowa is totally unrelated to MN, WI, etc. when we've seen that swings in Iowa tend to be paralleled in neighboring states.

Please don't delude yourself when the reasons to be concerned are extremely rational! If we're going to get out of the next Trump administration with minimal harm, we need to be very clear about where we are.

But rural MN is not half the state. The 7 county metro is about 56% of the population. The 5 largest cities in outstate MN (Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Moorhead, and Mankato) are about 6% (and voted 60-37 Biden) leaving about 38% as rural/small outstate cities.

In fairness "about" is doing a lot of work in my original post, but still, 44% of the state swinging like that Seltzer poll would be very bad for Democrats. Iowa is easy to typecast as a rural monolith, but it actually has a good number of fairly liberal small cities too -- actually Iowa City is a good bit more Democratic than any of the cities outside of the Twin Cities in Minnesota.

It's only logical to be concerned about Minnesota when an extremely reputable poll shows an apocalypse for Democrats in a fairly similar state.

[axiomsofdominion]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

There was a poll with Biden ahead by four just about a week ago.

It's not the most spectacular lead, but I seriously don't think Iowa is representative of its neighboring states anymore. Minnesota and Wisconsin have their own quirks and better institutional state Democratic parties.

It obviously isn't relevant for all of Minnesota -- the Twin Cities are of course a different place -- but it's extremely relevant for the rest of the state, and that's about half of it! Even if Biden's vote holds steady in the Twin Cities a major swing elsewhere is still extremely harmful. What's irrational is saying that Iowa is totally unrelated to MN, WI, etc. when we've seen that swings in Iowa tend to be paralleled in neighboring states.

Please don't delude yourself when the reasons to be concerned are extremely rational! If we're going to get out of the next Trump administration with minimal harm, we need to be very clear about where we are.

But rural MN is not half the state. The 7 county metro is about 56% of the population. The 5 largest cities in outstate MN (Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Moorhead, and Mankato) are about 6% (and voted 60-37 Biden) leaving about 38% as rural/small outstate cities.

Minnesota has a very famous left/liberal history compared to Iowa, and as you say the demographics are actually not that similar.

Where's the Iowa version of the Iron Range? Sure DFL is losing ground there but it's not the kind of margins Trump gets in other states in rural areas.

Also a lot of this has nothing to do with Biden in any case. People in places like the Iron Range are probably pro-Biden in areas where he differs from Dems. The problem is people like Ilhan Omar with relatively extremist positions especially on foreign policy.

[Agonized-Statism]

Yeah it's definitely in play; seems like a plausible-ish Indiana 2008-type win for Trump.

It's funny that you mention that, because I remember people early on talking about Maine At-Large as a potential Indiana '08-style sleeper flip with the unusual demographic situation there. Minnesota wouldn't be especially surprising in a big enough Trump win, but Maine would certainly come out of left field if it zoomed right. Not that I see either happening, personally.

[Minnesota Mike]

It's only logical to be concerned about Minnesota when an extremely reputable poll shows an apocalypse for Democrats in a fairly similar state.

But that's the thing, as I have been saying Minnesota is not that similar. FWIW I was born in Iowa and most of my extended family lives there and I have lived in Minnesota for the last 55 years. I think I have a feel for the states.

[Obama24]

I think Trump takes MN by a thin margin

[axiomsofdominion]

It's only logical to be concerned about Minnesota when an extremely reputable poll shows an apocalypse for Democrats in a fairly similar state.

But that's the thing, as I have been saying Minnesota is not that similar. FWIW I was born in Iowa and most of my extended family lives there and I have lived in Minnesota for the last 55 years. I think I have a feel for the states.

It is worth less than nothing. Because Atlas users don't decide on facts and logic but just vibes and personal preferences.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NGL, I gotta go with the smart poster who lives in Minnesota over one of the forum's biggest Trump hacks.

[Sol]

This century, aside from 2020 (where Democrats did decently well in Minnesota for George Floyd-related reasons) the swings in non-Twin Cities Minnesota have been fairly similar to Iowa. Southern Minnesota especially has quite a bit in common. If two states are in the same region of the country, have similar demographics, etc. etc. it's only logical to expect that a dramatic swing in one might translate to the other. It's like if there was a terrible poll for Democrats in South Carolina, you would rationally assume it meant bad things for Democrats in North Carolina, even though the states are fairly different, because in the grand scheme of things they still have a lot in common.

IMO Biden is still more likely to win Minnesota for the reasons you all have articulated, but the polls should impact your confidence level on these things. And of course this doesn't mean good things in Wisconsin either.

Minnesota has a very famous left/liberal history compared to Iowa, and as you say the demographics are actually not that similar.

Where's the Iowa version of the Iron Range? Sure DFL is losing ground there but it's not the kind of margins Trump gets in other states in rural areas.

Also a lot of this has nothing to do with Biden in any case. People in places like the Iron Range are probably pro-Biden in areas where he differs from Dems. The problem is people like Ilhan Omar with relatively extremist positions especially on foreign policy.

The Iron Range is less than half of a congressional district's worth of population, even in the most inclusive definitions, and a swing region. It's not going to save Democrats if they get really bad headwinds elsewhere.

[wbrocks67]

No

[axiomsofdominion]

This century, aside from 2020 (where Democrats did decently well in Minnesota for George Floyd-related reasons) the swings in non-Twin Cities Minnesota have been fairly similar to Iowa. Southern Minnesota especially has quite a bit in common. If two states are in the same region of the country, have similar demographics, etc. etc. it's only logical to expect that a dramatic swing in one might translate to the other. It's like if there was a terrible poll for Democrats in South Carolina, you would rationally assume it meant bad things for Democrats in North Carolina, even though the states are fairly different, because in the grand scheme of things they still have a lot in common.

IMO Biden is still more likely to win Minnesota for the reasons you all have articulated, but the polls should impact your confidence level on these things. And of course this doesn't mean good things in Wisconsin either.

Minnesota has a very famous left/liberal history compared to Iowa, and as you say the demographics are actually not that similar.

Where's the Iowa version of the Iron Range? Sure DFL is losing ground there but it's not the kind of margins Trump gets in other states in rural areas.

Also a lot of this has nothing to do with Biden in any case. People in places like the Iron Range are probably pro-Biden in areas where he differs from Dems. The problem is people like Ilhan Omar with relatively extremist positions especially on foreign policy.

The Iron Range is less than half of a congressional district's worth of population, even in the most inclusive definitions, and a swing region. It's not going to save Democrats if they get really bad headwinds elsewhere.

Right but it is just an example of how Minnesota is not Iowa.

[David Hume]

- Selzer Iowa poll does not matter in Minnesota. Why not pay attention to the 7 MN polls that have  Biden up 2-4 points instead of trying extrapolate from a poll of another state that has significant differences from Minnesota?

- Whether or not it's in play depends on how you define "in play". Sure Trump could win but it's unlikely IMO. Trump plays horribly in the TC suburbs and that's where he needs to improve if he is to have a chance.

What do you think of the polls where Biden is only up 2-4 points?

In anyway if MN is "in play", Trump would easily win the election with WI MI PA, which are significantly easier to win than MN. Besides, there is no chance to defeat Amy, so no point of investing in MN IMHO.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

We’re literally doing “mega-coattails” unironically now?

Minnesota and Iowa are not the same.

[GoTfan]

Yeah, I'm gonna go with the guy who lives there and is from Iowa.

[holtridge]

No. Reagan couldn't even win in Minnesota.