Redfield-Wilton National: Biden +1(+0 from May)

[axiomsofdominion]

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-11-12-june-2024/

National poll has Biden +1, though he and Trump both dropped 2, going from 43-42 Biden to 41-40 Biden.

[Spectator]

This would be roughly in line with their state polls.

[President Johnson]

Meh. Not good, not bad either.

[wbrocks67]

This would be roughly in line with their state polls.

Yep- this guy nailed it too

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1802704151173804458

[axiomsofdominion]

Meh. Not good, not bad either.

R-W had Trump +4 in March and +1-2 in April-May. Now two consecutive polls at +1. Obviously you'd prefer a higher number for him. But consistent with a slow shift towards Biden which is synced with their state poll numbers.

[wbrocks67]

It's actually a minor swing from their last poll - the results actually come out to Biden 41.5, Trump 39.6 without rounding - so a 1% swing towards Biden

(i know this doesn't matter but just having fun)

[axiomsofdominion]

It's actually a minor swing from their last poll - the results actually come out to Biden 41.5, Trump 39.6 without rounding - so a 1% swing towards Biden

(i know this doesn't matter but just having fun)

I actually think it does matter. Pollsters should show decimals.

[wbrocks67]

For the first time since July 2023, more Americans now think Joe Biden would be more likely to win the Presidential Election than Donald Trump, if both are candidates for the main parties.
39% (+3) of Americans currently say they think Joe Biden would be more likely to win in a contest between the two men, while 36% (-5) think Donald Trump would be more likely to win. 14% (+2) believe it would be a toss-up.

This is so funny given the discourse lately

[Spectator]

For the first time since July 2023, more Americans now think Joe Biden would be more likely to win the Presidential Election than Donald Trump, if both are candidates for the main parties.
39% (+3) of Americans currently say they think Joe Biden would be more likely to win in a contest between the two men, while 36% (-5) think Donald Trump would be more likely to win. 14% (+2) believe it would be a toss-up.

This is so funny given the discourse lately

There is a strong argument to be made that it is beneficial to be perceived as the underdog. It motivates your base by sheer panic, and it might even help downballot candidates by “giving permission” to people to ticket split as a check and balance against who they think the winner will be.

This is one of the leading theories for why the GOP did unexpectedly well in the downballot in 2020. 

[axiomsofdominion]

For the first time since July 2023, more Americans now think Joe Biden would be more likely to win the Presidential Election than Donald Trump, if both are candidates for the main parties.
39% (+3) of Americans currently say they think Joe Biden would be more likely to win in a contest between the two men, while 36% (-5) think Donald Trump would be more likely to win. 14% (+2) believe it would be a toss-up.

This is so funny given the discourse lately

There is a strong argument to be made that it is beneficial to be perceived as the underdog. It motivates your base by sheer panic, and it might even help downballot candidates by “giving permission” to people to ticket split as a check and balance against who they think the winner will be.

This is one of the leading theories for why the GOP did unexpectedly well in the downballot in 2020. 

This theory is not correct. There's strong evidence that who voters on average believe will win is a stronger indicator of victory than the topline poll numbers.

It *is* true that voters will often ticket split, though.

[wbrocks67]

For the first time since July 2023, more Americans now think Joe Biden would be more likely to win the Presidential Election than Donald Trump, if both are candidates for the main parties.
39% (+3) of Americans currently say they think Joe Biden would be more likely to win in a contest between the two men, while 36% (-5) think Donald Trump would be more likely to win. 14% (+2) believe it would be a toss-up.

This is so funny given the discourse lately

There is a strong argument to be made that it is beneficial to be perceived as the underdog. It motivates your base by sheer panic, and it might even help downballot candidates by “giving permission” to people to ticket split as a check and balance against who they think the winner will be.

This is one of the leading theories for why the GOP did unexpectedly well in the downballot in 2020. 

I feel like it's 50/50 - you could make an argument both ways

If you're down and people don't expect you to win - it can definitely make you an underdog and make sure your voters don't get complacent

However, if you're down, it can also lead to a depressed electorate and voters who may see you down in the polls and just assume you're going to lose and don't bother

[MR DARK BRANDON]

For the first time since July 2023, more Americans now think Joe Biden would be more likely to win the Presidential Election than Donald Trump, if both are candidates for the main parties.
39% (+3) of Americans currently say they think Joe Biden would be more likely to win in a contest between the two men, while 36% (-5) think Donald Trump would be more likely to win. 14% (+2) believe it would be a toss-up.

This is so funny given the discourse lately

There is a strong argument to be made that it is beneficial to be perceived as the underdog. It motivates your base by sheer panic, and it might even help downballot candidates by “giving permission” to people to ticket split as a check and balance against who they think the winner will be.

This is one of the leading theories for why the GOP did unexpectedly well in the downballot in 2020. 

I feel like it's 50/50 - you could make an argument both ways

If you're down and people don't expect you to win - it can definitely make you an underdog and make sure your voters don't get complacent

However, if you're down, it can also lead to a depressed electorate and voters who may see you down in the polls and just assume you're going to lose and don't bother

That is actually a concern of mine this election is if the media paints Trump as a sure thing (even if it isn’t true), so seeing that more people view Biden as a favourite is a welcome sign.

We actually saw a similar thing here in Ontario, the media tried to paint Doug Ford’s re election as a sure thing (which it pretty much was) so many liberals just simply did not vote and turnout plummeted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering that Redfield usually isn't so rosy for Biden, this isn't too bad. Certainly, it would be better to see Biden gaining. But after the Selzer poll, I'll take any modest encouragement I can get.

[axiomsofdominion]

Considering that Redfield usually isn't so rosy for Biden, this isn't too bad. Certainly, it would be better to see Biden gaining. But after the Selzer poll, I'll take any modest encouragement I can get.

Due to the margin of error factor we can't be sure he isn't gaining.

Maybe the previous poll was too good for him.

R-W went -4/-4/+0/-2/+1/+1. So the first +1 may have been an anomaly.