Redfield - CloseER race in the swing states

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

[axiomsofdominion]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

This is actually a pretty healthy swing from their last polls.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

This is actually a pretty healthy swing from their last polls.

I did not realize their last poll for Michigan was Trump +6 lol

[axiomsofdominion]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

This is actually a pretty healthy swing from their last polls.

Changes vs May 4th:
PA +0 Biden
NC +4 Biden
MI +5 Biden
GA +0 Biden
FL +3 Biden
AZ +0 Biden

So it is okay but not great.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

This is actually a pretty healthy swing from their last polls.

Changes vs May 4th:
PA +0 Biden
NC +4 Biden
MI +5 Biden
GA +0 Biden
FL +3 Biden
AZ +0 Biden

So it is okay but not great.

Agreed. The rust belt looks encouraging though, and I like those NC numbers.

[Eraserhead]

Sad to say but these seem good for Biden, relatively speaking.

[Spectator]

Any senate or gubernatorial numbers for those of us without X accounts?

[axiomsofdominion]

Any senate or gubernatorial numbers for those of us without X accounts?

Just wait till it hits 538?

[wbrocks67]

Any senate or gubernatorial numbers for those of us without X accounts?

Looked at the file, unfortunately no

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are all MOE and we know already about FL, with Ds Early voting we can overcome these leads

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

The difference is Selzer polls are the gold standard, Redfield not so much! What’s “foolish” is trusting a 37/36 Michigan poll or whatever to be meaningful at all, let alone better than Selzer. And STILL Biden is losing in every single state in this poll! If this is the best he’s got, YIKES!

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

The difference is Selzer polls are the gold standard, Redfield not so much! What’s “foolish” is trusting a 37/36 Michigan poll or whatever to be meaningful at all, let alone better than Selzer. And STILL Biden is losing in every single state in this poll! If this is the best he’s got, YIKES!

I think we can be thankful that  this ISN’T the best Biden’s got. and redfield is far from his best poll typically.

[axiomsofdominion]

https://twitter.com/argojournal/status/1802684679570481573?s=46

Not the greatest results for Biden but certainly not the obliteration fools are hyping up in the DMR poll.

The difference is Selzer polls are the gold standard, Redfield not so much! What’s “foolish” is trusting a 37/36 Michigan poll or whatever to be meaningful at all, let alone better than Selzer. And STILL Biden is losing in every single state in this poll! If this is the best he’s got, YIKES!

This is a moderate amount of movement from the previous RW polls. He stayed steady in 3 and improved a decent amount in 3.

The problem with Selzer is that what she is famous for is the Iowa caucus. Not even the state really and certainly not the nation. And we all know how the Caucus went this year. Plus she is famous specifically for her results in the last poll before the vote, not her polls 5 months out.

People like to hype up the whole "gold standard" thing but it doesn't mean you can extrapolate a poll 5 months before the election to a bunch of neighboring states. Especially since the last few elections were transition elections. Iowa is red trending but the swing states really aren't to the same degree.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why poll Florida and not Wisconsin?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering that it's Redfield, I guess this is okay.

That Michigan result is the most worthless of these though.

[TheReckoning]

Democratic rhetoric on abortion is swinging GA/NC to Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democratic rhetoric on abortion is swinging GA/NC to Trump.

These are polls not votes

[Bush did 311]

Democratic rhetoric on abortion is swinging GA/NC to Trump.

Support for abortion in most or all cases polls at 66% in NC and 63% in GA, similar to other battlegrounds.

https://www.prri.org/research/abortion-views-in-all-50-states-findings-from-prris-2023-american-values-atlas/

[Tekken_Guy]

Not terrible for Biden for a Redfield poll, since these are usually some of Trump's better polls.

AZ and NC are pretty good for Biden in general since he's usually down closer to 5 in most polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash polls

[TheReckoning]

Democratic rhetoric on abortion is swinging GA/NC to Trump.

Support for abortion in most or all cases polls at 66% in NC and 63% in GA, similar to other battlegrounds.

https://www.prri.org/research/abortion-views-in-all-50-states-findings-from-prris-2023-american-values-atlas/

That poll is absolute garbage. An anti-abortion referendum outperformed Trump in Louisiana in 2020, and NC and GA are very similar states.

[Pericles]

If the Midwest polling is accurate, Biden has a pretty plausible path to the 270-268 map.