IA DMR Trump +18

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa was never going to be competitive this cycle, but good grief that’s terrible for Joe.

I'm
Lol Reynolds won by 30

[Ljube]

This is game over for Biden.

With a margin like this, Trump will win Ohio by 12 and Wisconsin by 4.

[kwabbit]

Good thing that Iowa isn't correlated to Wisconsin and that Selzer polls never foreshadow unseen Democratic weakness in the Midwest.

It's not correlated though? Maybe 10-20 years ago, but not now, given that Wisconsin is still a swing state and receives a way different amount of attention than Iowa does these days. The same reason why Tony Evers winning by 3 was not correlated at all by Kim Reynolds nearly winning by 20.

The poll mostly just underscores how Republican the state has moved in general. Biden actually has a smidge more support from Democrats (89%) than Trump does Republicans (88%) in this poll! Trump leads by 10 among Independents though, which given the Republican party ID edge in the state translates into nearly double that margin statewide.

This isn't really surprising though; Biden won Independents in Iowa by 4% in 2020 and still lost the state by 8

I'm not gonna sit here and say "great poll for Biden!" but let's be clear, Iowa is long gone for Democrats and it's continued movement towards Republicans should not be surprising to anyone

They are correlated, just not perfectly correlated. Gubernatorial elections operate in their own universe, are typically pro-incumbent, and often disconnected from the national environment. Iowa is absolutely worse for Democrats, but they have had basically the same movement in every Presidential election for 30+ years, with the main aberration being the 2012 to 2016 swing, where Iowa swung 15 points and Wisconsin 7 points. They both swung 1 point left 2016 to 2020 and have quite similar demographics, although WI is clearly more favorable to D trends:

Iowa: 85% White, 31% College-educated
Wisconsin: 82% White, 33% College-educated

If Iowa were to be Trump +18, there is a near-zero chance that Wisconsin votes for Biden. This is an obvious conclusion, but it's verboten in some circles to concede that Biden is disfavored in a likely tipping-point state. The demographic differences would produce a roughly 1 point difference in trends and campaign investment/attention would be a few points at most. WI already received much, much more investment in 2020 and there was no difference in their voting behavior.

Iowa is unlikely to be Trump +18, so this kind of besides the point, but once the Iowa margins approaches Trump +13 WI becomes essentially impossible for Biden. At that point Biden is either doing poorly in Polk or Johnson Counties, where his performances in Madison/Milwaukee are weak, or he's getting absolutely blown out in IA rural areas, where he's lost enough ground in similar areas in WI to lose the state.

I think Biden could theoretically survive a Trump+12-13 Iowa result in Wisconsin. Use the Iowa and Wisconsin Senate races from 2022 as a proxy and that’s basically what happened. Both had incumbent Republican Senators running against flawed Democrats. Johnson almost definitely loses to a stronger Democrat.

IA Sen 22 vs. WI Sen 22 was still a modest candidate quality advantage for the GOP. Grassley still had some crossover appeal despite his age and Franken's competence, while Johnson's extremism hurt him even in contrast with Barnes' extremism. Probably worth a point or two in the end.

At Trump +12, Biden probably has a 10% chance of winning Wisconsin, but at Trump +13 it's more like 1-2%. Trump +18 is <0.1% though.

Iowa is a little less farm-y and more diverse than people think. Left-trending metro areas make up 1/3 of the state. What happens in Des Moines can tell you plenty about what happens in Madison, Green Bay/Fox River cities, and WOW.

[dspNY]

This is like that Washington Post Trump +10 poll. Outlier. However, I like that it was published so that we can call it an outlier

[Sir Mohamed]

This is like that Washington Post Trump +10 poll. Outlier. However, I like that it was published so that we can call it an outlier

Possibly, though I wouldn't be shocked for Trump to actually win OH with a result like this. Ergo, Biden dropping slightly under 40% while Trump is in the 56-59% range.

[Ljube]

This is like that Washington Post Trump +10 poll. Outlier. However, I like that it was published so that we can call it an outlier

This is not an outlier.
It is consistent with Selzer's earlier polls, and it is further consistent with the tendency of other pollsters to underestimate Trump in Wisconsin and Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will lose IA by 10 pts not 20 it's an Outlier

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

[ajc0918]

Some of you need to take a breath and calm down. Lol.

[Spectator]

{snip}

They are correlated, just not perfectly correlated. Gubernatorial elections operate in their own universe, are typically pro-incumbent, and often disconnected from the national environment. Iowa is absolutely worse for Democrats, but they have had basically the same movement in every Presidential election for 30+ years, with the main aberration being the 2012 to 2016 swing, where Iowa swung 15 points and Wisconsin 7 points. They both swung 1 point left 2016 to 2020 and have quite similar demographics, although WI is clearly more favorable to D trends:

Iowa: 85% White, 31% College-educated
Wisconsin: 82% White, 33% College-educated

If Iowa were to be Trump +18, there is a near-zero chance that Wisconsin votes for Biden. This is an obvious conclusion, but it's verboten in some circles to concede that Biden is disfavored in a likely tipping-point state. The demographic differences would produce a roughly 1 point difference in trends and campaign investment/attention would be a few points at most. WI already received much, much more investment in 2020 and there was no difference in their voting behavior.

Iowa is unlikely to be Trump +18, so this kind of besides the point, but once the Iowa margins approaches Trump +13 WI becomes essentially impossible for Biden. At that point Biden is either doing poorly in Polk or Johnson Counties, where his performances in Madison/Milwaukee are weak, or he's getting absolutely blown out in IA rural areas, where he's lost enough ground in similar areas in WI to lose the state.

I think Biden could theoretically survive a Trump+12-13 Iowa result in Wisconsin. Use the Iowa and Wisconsin Senate races from 2022 as a proxy and that’s basically what happened. Both had incumbent Republican Senators running against flawed Democrats. Johnson almost definitely loses to a stronger Democrat.

IA Sen 22 vs. WI Sen 22 was still a modest candidate quality advantage for the GOP. Grassley still had some crossover appeal despite his age and Franken's competence, while Johnson's extremism hurt him even in contrast with Barnes' extremism. Probably worth a point or two in the end.

At Trump +12, Biden probably has a 10% chance of winning Wisconsin, but at Trump +13 it's more like 1-2%. Trump +18 is <0.1% though.

Iowa is a little less farm-y and more diverse than people think. Left-trending metro areas make up 1/3 of the state. What happens in Des Moines can tell you plenty about what happens in Madison, Green Bay/Fox River cities, and WOW.

Maybe. I think Franken was still stronger than Barnes relative to their respective states, roughly negating Grassley being stronger than Johnson. Grassley also had the worst statewide performance of any incumbent Republican in Iowa in 2022, whereas Johnson had the strongest of any statewide Republican of the entire slate. In essence, I do think the two states might have drifted apart from each other enough to the point where Iowa is now roughly a dozen points to the right of Wisconsin, give or take.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

I’m not making any kind of prediction here I’m just noting something. If they do in fact underestimate Biden, even by 1-2 points , it means he wins the rust belt and thus the election.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wisconsin might vote for Trump, but at that point, he's already won the election imo. PA is the rust belt state that scares me the most due to it being less white than WI but it was closer in 2020 than MI

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Wisconsin might vote for Trump, but at that point, he's already won the election imo. PA is the rust belt state that scares me the most due to it being less white than WI but it was closer in 2020 than MI

What’s your pred as of now?

[TheTide]

In terms of margin this would be the best Republican performance in Iowa in a presidential election since Eisenhower.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wisconsin might vote for Trump, but at that point, he's already won the election imo. PA is the rust belt state that scares me the most due to it being less white than WI but it was closer in 2020 than MI

What’s your pred as of now?

Trump 2016 sans NE-2 and WI, +NV. But I haven't given up yet. I think PA flips first but MI swings more R than PA

[Spectator]

Wisconsin might vote for Trump, but at that point, he's already won the election imo. PA is the rust belt state that scares me the most due to it being less white than WI but it was closer in 2020 than MI

What’s your pred as of now?

Trump 2016 sans NE-2 and WI, +NV. But I haven't given up yet.

Not to derail this thread, but what’s your NC predictions for Pres, Gov, AG and Supe?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will win IA 55/45 not by 18 as I said users take polls literally

How much did Franken lose by 10

[kwabbit]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

I’m not making any kind of prediction here I’m just noting something. If they do in fact underestimate Biden, even by 1-2 points , it means he wins the rust belt and thus the election.

I'm generally sympathetic to the polling is underestimating Biden theory, but it's several times more likely to be the case in Georgia than Wisconsin. Biden's weakness is mainly with non-Whites and a polling miss would likely be among that group. Biden nearly matching 2020 support among non-Whites would net him a point in WI and four points in GA. It is possible given that Dems beat polling in the Midwest in 2022, but baking in Trump being overestimated in Wisconsin into your view of the election is questionable.

[Person Man]

Wasn't there a WI poll that had Biden up by 20 just before the last election?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

I’m not making any kind of prediction here I’m just noting something. If they do in fact underestimate Biden, even by 1-2 points , it means he wins the rust belt and thus the election.

I'm generally sympathetic to the polling is underestimating Biden theory, but it's several times more likely to be the case in Georgia than Wisconsin. Biden's weakness is mainly with non-Whites and a polling miss would likely be among that group. Biden nearly matching 2020 support among non-Whites would net him a point in WI and four points in GA. It is possible given that Dems beat polling in the Midwest in 2022, but baking in Trump being overestimated in Wisconsin into your view of the election is questionable.

Again I wasn’t saying what would happen I was just responding to the above poster that IF polls underestimate Biden by like 1-2 he could very well win. Wasn’t giving my own thoughts here.

[kwabbit]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

I’m not making any kind of prediction here I’m just noting something. If they do in fact underestimate Biden, even by 1-2 points , it means he wins the rust belt and thus the election.

I'm generally sympathetic to the polling is underestimating Biden theory, but it's several times more likely to be the case in Georgia than Wisconsin. Biden's weakness is mainly with non-Whites and a polling miss would likely be among that group. Biden nearly matching 2020 support among non-Whites would net him a point in WI and four points in GA. It is possible given that Dems beat polling in the Midwest in 2022, but baking in Trump being overestimated in Wisconsin into your view of the election is questionable.

Again I wasn’t saying what would happen I was just responding to the above poster that IF polls underestimate Biden by like 1-2 he could very well win. Wasn’t giving my own thoughts here.

What do you believe the 538 average in Wisconsin will be on election eve?

If Trump is leading the 538 average in Wisconsin by 1 point on election eve, what do you believe will happen?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Polls are underestimating Biden. The end. You can all call me a hack if you want, I'm using something called common sense. Selzer has been wrong before(and I don't care it was in the other direction, that is irrelevant, it just proves they are not gospel)

I’m not making any kind of prediction here I’m just noting something. If they do in fact underestimate Biden, even by 1-2 points , it means he wins the rust belt and thus the election.

I'm generally sympathetic to the polling is underestimating Biden theory, but it's several times more likely to be the case in Georgia than Wisconsin. Biden's weakness is mainly with non-Whites and a polling miss would likely be among that group. Biden nearly matching 2020 support among non-Whites would net him a point in WI and four points in GA. It is possible given that Dems beat polling in the Midwest in 2022, but baking in Trump being overestimated in Wisconsin into your view of the election is questionable.

Again I wasn’t saying what would happen I was just responding to the above poster that IF polls underestimate Biden by like 1-2 he could very well win. Wasn’t giving my own thoughts here.

What do you believe the 538 average in Wisconsin will be on election eve?

If Trump is leading the 538 average in Wisconsin by 1 point on election eve, what do you believe will happen?

Hard to say, I’m not gonna make a prediction of that since a lot can happen to swing the average either way, I guess if current trends continue you may see Biden up by like 1 by election day or so? But don’t take my word for it. and as for the second point we saw WI underestimate Dems in 2016/20 then not in 22 so I’ll say it could go either way.

All I can say in regards to this is as of rn I have Biden getting WI narrowly but it’s far from a done deal and can easily swing.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wisconsin might vote for Trump, but at that point, he's already won the election imo. PA is the rust belt state that scares me the most due to it being less white than WI but it was closer in 2020 than MI

What’s your pred as of now?

Trump 2016 sans NE-2 and WI, +NV. But I haven't given up yet.

Not to derail this thread, but what’s your NC predictions for Pres, Gov, AG and Supe?

NC Gov D Sup D AG R

[Utah Neolib]

THE SELZER POLL IN 2020 AT THIS TIME WAS ONLY TRUMP +1!
Don’t panic

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

32% is pretty good for an incumbent