IA DMR Trump +18

[BlueSwan]

More evidence that Biden is close to done.

[Redban]

Their last poll was Trump +15 in February. RFK Jr and the others weren't listed then. So the pollster isn't really showing a change in the race in IA

Surprisingly, not many pollsters have done polls for Iowa. But we have

DMR: +15 (Feb 2024)
Cygnal: +9 (Feb 2024)
Zogby: +12 (Jan 2024)
Emerson: +8 (Dec 2023)
Emerson: +11 (Oct 2023)

And all of those are straight head-to-head polls; none of those polls include Kennedy and others.

The conclusion is that the state is likely a dead-zone for Biden in 2024. A double-digit win for Trump is probably coming

I don't know if we can deduce that "if he's up by double-digits in Iowa, then he must be winning Wisconsin too" though

[Matty]

Yikes

If trump is truly plus 18 in Iowa, then that bodes quite ominous for Biden in Wisconsin and even Minnesota

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Yeah not a good poll for Biden and it’s quite clear Iowa is gone for Dems, still id like more from the rust belt.

[Beet]

"That’s in contrast with those younger than 35, who are Biden’s worst demographic group. Just 15% of those younger than 35 approve of Biden’s job performance, while 76% disapprove. That’s slightly worse than February, when 21% approved and 76% disapproved."

Good god.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Their last poll was Trump +15 in February. RFK Jr and the others weren't listed then. So the pollster isn't really showing a change in the race in IA

Surprisingly, not many pollsters have done polls for Iowa. But we have

DMR: +15 (Feb 2024)
Cygnal: +9 (Feb 2024)
Zogby: +12 (Jan 2024)
Emerson: +8 (Dec 2023)
Emerson: +11 (Oct 2023)

And all of those are straight head-to-head polls; none of those polls include Kennedy and others.

The conclusion is that the state is likely a dead-zone for Biden in 2024. A double-digit win for Trump is probably coming

I don't know if we can deduce that "if he's up by double-digits in Iowa, then he must be winning Wisconsin too" though

I find myself agreeing with you here. I guess we really are gonna see Iowa become the R Colorado or something. But I’m not exactly sure that this means Trump winning WI given much like Iowa polls showing him up double digits, Wisconsin polls show the race relatively close.

[Vern]

Looking back, in 2020, their June poll in IA had Trump +1 and their final 2020 poll had Trump +7.

[iceman]

FWIW, if this election is truly a divide between educational attainment, Iowa has a college rate of 30% Michigan has 32%, Wisconsin has 33% and Minnesota has 39%.

[axiomsofdominion]

A lot of people don't understand local Iowa politics very well. First of all Biden got 45% there in 2020 and Clinton got 42% in 2016. Trump is actually below both his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Second of all the "right/wrong direction" numbers *immediately* sh**t themselves as soon as Biden became president. Iowa is simply a red state now.

Biden is not gonna get 32% in Iowa, but he may get something like 40% or even 38%. Regardless this is very Iowa specific. You have to remember that Biden is the one who told Iowa to eat sh**t in the primary schedule. As it is well known to not be a close or relevant state these days and due to the aforementioned primary calender scandal the young voters feel empowered to make protest votes.

Is this a terrible result for Democrats representing the Floridization of Iowa? Yes. Will it seriously impact other states? No.

[wbrocks67]

Good thing that Iowa isn't correlated to Wisconsin and that Selzer polls never foreshadow unseen Democratic weakness in the Midwest.

It's not correlated though? Maybe 10-20 years ago, but not now, given that Wisconsin is still a swing state and receives a way different amount of attention than Iowa does these days. The same reason why Tony Evers winning by 3 was not correlated at all by Kim Reynolds nearly winning by 20.

The poll mostly just underscores how Republican the state has moved in general. Biden actually has a smidge more support from Democrats (89%) than Trump does Republicans (88%) in this poll! Trump leads by 10 among Independents though, which given the Republican party ID edge in the state translates into nearly double that margin statewide.

This isn't really surprising though; Biden won Independents in Iowa by 4% in 2020 and still lost the state by 8

I'm not gonna sit here and say "great poll for Biden!" but let's be clear, Iowa is long gone for Democrats and it's continued movement towards Republicans should not be surprising to anyone

[wbrocks67]

Their last poll was Trump +15 in February. RFK Jr and the others weren't listed then. So the pollster isn't really showing a change in the race in IA

Surprisingly, not many pollsters have done polls for Iowa. But we have

DMR: +15 (Feb 2024)
Cygnal: +9 (Feb 2024)
Zogby: +12 (Jan 2024)
Emerson: +8 (Dec 2023)
Emerson: +11 (Oct 2023)

And all of those are straight head-to-head polls; none of those polls include Kennedy and others.

The conclusion is that the state is likely a dead-zone for Biden in 2024. A double-digit win for Trump is probably coming

I don't know if we can deduce that "if he's up by double-digits in Iowa, then he must be winning Wisconsin too" though

I find myself agreeing with you here. I guess we really are gonna see Iowa become the R Colorado or something. But I’m not exactly sure that this means Trump winning WI given much like Iowa polls showing him up double digits, Wisconsin polls show the race relatively close.

Again, anyone saying that this is foreshadowing Wisconsin IMO is stuck in 2008. Wisconsin receives presidential visits, campaign ads, state party infrastructure attention, and high profile elections basically every 2 years at least now. Iowa has not had a competitive race for a high profile election in over a decade at this point. No campaign ads, no presidential visits, little state party infrastructure. Chuck Grassley is nearly a decade older than Biden and still won the Senate race by 12 in 2022. I'm not sure why people are bothering to make this comparison as if the states are relative to each other these days anymore.

[Sir Mohamed]

Disastrous poll for Biden.

Not that he needs IA or has any shot of winning it, the question is whether such a margin - which I believe is possible on the upper end of the range of possibilities - translates into more trouble elsewhere. Or whether IA has just moved much further right than the Rust Belt trio.

[Eraserhead]

That's horrifying. I can't believe we're really going to put this guy back in the White House.

[wbrocks67]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

[axiomsofdominion]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

Iowa is 85% White and another 7% Hispanic.

Ohio is 62% White. There's some other differences, too.

[wbrocks67]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

Iowa is 85% White and another 7% Hispanic.

Ohio is 62% White. There's some other differences, too.

The narrative however is that Biden is collapsing with nonwhite voters, so you'd still think you'd see a shift!

Point being that states are their own thing. Ohio and Wisconsin both seem to be showing around 2020 results in their polling. Iowa doesn't. Very obvious that Iowa may just be its own beast at this point!

Again- Chuck Grassley had a great competitor in 2022. Probably one of the best opponents Ds could've put up. Grassley is like 90. Franken still lost by 12. Iowa is gone.

[axiomsofdominion]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

Iowa is 85% White and another 7% Hispanic.

Ohio is 62% White. There's some other differences, too.

The narrative however is that Biden is collapsing with nonwhite voters, so you'd still think you'd see a shift!

Point being that states are their own thing. Ohio and Wisconsin both seem to be showing around 2020 results in their polling. Iowa doesn't. Very obvious that Iowa may just be its own beast at this point!

Again- Chuck Grassley had a great competitor in 2022. Probably one of the best opponents Ds could've put up. Grassley is like 90. Franken still lost by 12. Iowa is gone.

Well if you read my other posts you know I agree that Iowa is gone, although I do think a significant amount was the Dems dissing them in the primary.

[Senator Incitatus]

We should absolutely expect IA to trend much more Republican than its neighbors and the country at large, bur even so this swing would put the race out of reach for Biden, and that’s without getting into the unique trends to Trump in urban environments which aren’t showing up here.

Biden supporters need to hope his campaign improves massively in the remaining five months, starting with the first debate. It’s not enough to wave off polling.

[kwabbit]

Good thing that Iowa isn't correlated to Wisconsin and that Selzer polls never foreshadow unseen Democratic weakness in the Midwest.

It's not correlated though? Maybe 10-20 years ago, but not now, given that Wisconsin is still a swing state and receives a way different amount of attention than Iowa does these days. The same reason why Tony Evers winning by 3 was not correlated at all by Kim Reynolds nearly winning by 20.

The poll mostly just underscores how Republican the state has moved in general. Biden actually has a smidge more support from Democrats (89%) than Trump does Republicans (88%) in this poll! Trump leads by 10 among Independents though, which given the Republican party ID edge in the state translates into nearly double that margin statewide.

This isn't really surprising though; Biden won Independents in Iowa by 4% in 2020 and still lost the state by 8

I'm not gonna sit here and say "great poll for Biden!" but let's be clear, Iowa is long gone for Democrats and it's continued movement towards Republicans should not be surprising to anyone

They are correlated, just not perfectly correlated. Gubernatorial elections operate in their own universe, are typically pro-incumbent, and often disconnected from the national environment. Iowa is absolutely worse for Democrats, but they have had basically the same movement in every Presidential election for 30+ years, with the main aberration being the 2012 to 2016 swing, where Iowa swung 15 points and Wisconsin 7 points. They both swung 1 point left 2016 to 2020 and have quite similar demographics, although WI is clearly more favorable to D trends:

Iowa: 85% White, 31% College-educated
Wisconsin: 82% White, 33% College-educated

If Iowa were to be Trump +18, there is a near-zero chance that Wisconsin votes for Biden. This is an obvious conclusion, but it's verboten in some circles to concede that Biden is disfavored in a likely tipping-point state. The demographic differences would produce a roughly 1 point difference in trends and campaign investment/attention would be a few points at most. WI already received much, much more investment in 2020 and there was no difference in their voting behavior.

Iowa is unlikely to be Trump +18, so this kind of besides the point, but once the Iowa margins approaches Trump +13 WI becomes essentially impossible for Biden. At that point Biden is either doing poorly in Polk or Johnson Counties, where his performances in Madison/Milwaukee are weak, or he's getting absolutely blown out in IA rural areas, where he's lost enough ground in similar areas in WI to lose the state.

[Agafin]

Would it be an over-exaggeration to consider this the worst poll for Biden in at least a year, given who the pollster is? I guess one saving grace is that this is their Summer poll rather than their October poll (the latter being the one which is almost always scarily accurate).

[7,052,770]

Would it be an over-exaggeration to consider this the worst poll for Biden in at least a year, given who the pollster is?

No, I think that's a fair statement. This is brutal.

[Sir Mohamed]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

IA is more white and also doesn't have large metros like OH does. Both of these prevent Dems from the bottom falling out in OH unless voter coalitions drastically change. Imho, there's no way Biden falls below 41-42% in OH, while a clean 59-38% sweep in IA wouldn't surprise me the slightest bit. Even in a scenario that has Biden winning the election.

[Spectator]

Good thing that Iowa isn't correlated to Wisconsin and that Selzer polls never foreshadow unseen Democratic weakness in the Midwest.

It's not correlated though? Maybe 10-20 years ago, but not now, given that Wisconsin is still a swing state and receives a way different amount of attention than Iowa does these days. The same reason why Tony Evers winning by 3 was not correlated at all by Kim Reynolds nearly winning by 20.

The poll mostly just underscores how Republican the state has moved in general. Biden actually has a smidge more support from Democrats (89%) than Trump does Republicans (88%) in this poll! Trump leads by 10 among Independents though, which given the Republican party ID edge in the state translates into nearly double that margin statewide.

This isn't really surprising though; Biden won Independents in Iowa by 4% in 2020 and still lost the state by 8

I'm not gonna sit here and say "great poll for Biden!" but let's be clear, Iowa is long gone for Democrats and it's continued movement towards Republicans should not be surprising to anyone

They are correlated, just not perfectly correlated. Gubernatorial elections operate in their own universe, are typically pro-incumbent, and often disconnected from the national environment. Iowa is absolutely worse for Democrats, but they have had basically the same movement in every Presidential election for 30+ years, with the main aberration being the 2012 to 2016 swing, where Iowa swung 15 points and Wisconsin 7 points. They both swung 1 point left 2016 to 2020 and have quite similar demographics, although WI is clearly more favorable to D trends:

Iowa: 85% White, 31% College-educated
Wisconsin: 82% White, 33% College-educated

If Iowa were to be Trump +18, there is a near-zero chance that Wisconsin votes for Biden. This is an obvious conclusion, but it's verboten in some circles to concede that Biden is disfavored in a likely tipping-point state. The demographic differences would produce a roughly 1 point difference in trends and campaign investment/attention would be a few points at most. WI already received much, much more investment in 2020 and there was no difference in their voting behavior.

Iowa is unlikely to be Trump +18, so this kind of besides the point, but once the Iowa margins approaches Trump +13 WI becomes essentially impossible for Biden. At that point Biden is either doing poorly in Polk or Johnson Counties, where his performances in Madison/Milwaukee are weak, or he's getting absolutely blown out in IA rural areas, where he's lost enough ground in similar areas in WI to lose the state.

I think Biden could theoretically survive a Trump+12-13 Iowa result in Wisconsin. Use the Iowa and Wisconsin Senate races from 2022 as a proxy and that’s basically what happened. Both had incumbent Republican Senators running against flawed Democrats. Johnson almost definitely loses to a stronger Democrat.

[TodayJunior]

Iowa was never going to be competitive this cycle, but good grief that’s terrible for Joe.

[Alben Barkley]

The funny thing though is that Iowa is still lurching to the right while Ohio polls have remained relatively steady with 2020. They're not the same state, but you'd think if Iowa was continuing to bolt rightward, you'd see a little more slippage for Biden in Ohio.

Iowa is 85% White and another 7% Hispanic.

Ohio is 62% White. There's some other differences, too.

The narrative however is that Biden is collapsing with nonwhite voters, so you'd still think you'd see a shift!

Point being that states are their own thing. Ohio and Wisconsin both seem to be showing around 2020 results in their polling. Iowa doesn't. Very obvious that Iowa may just be its own beast at this point!

Again- Chuck Grassley had a great competitor in 2022. Probably one of the best opponents Ds could've put up. Grassley is like 90. Franken still lost by 12. Iowa is gone.

Ohio and Wisconsin polls were way off in 2020. There is no real reason to think they won’t be off yet again, and most likely in a way that underestimates Trump yet again for now a third time. Meanwhile Selzer Iowa poll in 2020 was spot on as always.

This is a disastrous poll for Biden, and those youth numbers are beyond atrocious. Period. There is zero way to spin this. Stop trying, it’s just cringe at this point.

We get it. You’re in love with Joe Biden. The vast majority of America is not, to the point many are willing to vote for the deranged psychopath over him. I get that’s infuriating but it is what it is. You need to accept reality or change your username to “Ostrich.” If you actually want to stop Trump, you need to be open to all possibilities, including that a Hail Mary move to replace Biden at the convention might have a better chance of success than an incumbent who is deep underwater and is now clearly at risk of becoming Jimmy Carter 2.0 and even losing states like Minnesota.

The funniest part is how every single poll shows enthusiasm for Biden among key Democratic groups like minorities and young people is rock bottom. You always ridicule this and point to it to argue the polls must be all wrong, taking it for granted that there’s no possible way that he really is just struggling that bad with these groups. If it was just one or two outlier polls, you might have a point. Almost every single one is a pattern you can’t deny or ignore without just coming off as a pathetic hack with his head in the sand. At best these polls show grave signs of discontent with Biden among the voters he NEEDS to win in the places he NEEDS to win. At best, that means they won’t vote for him even if they don’t vote for Trump, and that’s all it takes. We LIVED through this in 201, except it was never as bad for Hillary as it is now for Biden, not even close. How people think it can’t happen again or worse is beyond me. Their memories must be as goldfish-esque as those of Trump voters who forgot how horrible a president he was.

Also for the love of god, YES Iowa correlates to some degree with Wisconsin! It’s a neighboring state with similar demographics that barely voted for Biden by a fraction of a percent and Trump actually by slightly more in the election before that. All it takes is even a tiny bit of slippage for Biden and he’s done. Even if his problems are much worse in Iowa than Wisconsin, there is no way in hell he’s losing the former by 18 and winning the latter at all. Period. It is almost a mathematical impossibility!