The case for a Trump landslide; favorable media

[ProgressiveModerate]

One of the biggest stories of 2020 was despite his national loss, Trump making some pretty remarkable gains with Cubans in Miami-Dade County. Many attributed this to a combination of Trump generally gaining with Hispanics, Cubans not liking Covid restrictions, and the general right wing messaging around "Dems being crazy socialists" being quite effective in that community. However, if we look under the surface, these tactics were able to be effective here because of media; right-wing groups outspent Dems big time in this part of Florida, many cuban podcasts and radio had become increasingly dominated by right wing shows, and so on. Because Cubans in Miami are such a specific community, the effect of the change in the media environment had an outsized influence.

Now Trump and Republicans could be repeating this on the national level in a more subtle way. In general, there is very little true "pro-Biden" media out there, at least relative to anti-Biden and pro-Trump media.

This is especially true on social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok where right-wing content outpaces left wing content big time from my experience. There are lots of reels of Biden seemingly having senile moments, tons of reels about Israel-Gaza, tons of reels promoting conspiracies, tons of reels around culture war issues (from the right), but very little in the opposite direction. Generally think of your Libs of TikTok or End Wokeness accounts - there's nothing of the same magnitude from the left on these platforms. Given how social media is the primary source of media for a large majority of young people, this could explain the polling that shows young voters lurching like 20 points to the right - it's like creating a "Miami" media environment with young people.

I also think the general mood of the country right now is quite negative, pessimistic, and even angry, which probably hurts Biden as the incumbent. I believe this is mostly due to media.

The communities least affected by this will tend to be places where people are either less influenced by media and places where people read large quantities of diverse media - basically college educated communities.

What do ya'll think?

[Progressive Pessimist]

The fragmentation of media and how it's consumed is something I've been railing on for awhile now. It's why we're, almost globally, stupid enough to fall for the emotional appeals of right wing populism and the misinformation that is required to give it oxygen.

Depending how you define landslide, I still don't think Trump is capable of winning one.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I agree that the cultural environment is more right-leaning than it was in 2020.
In 2020 there was a LOT of left-wing trends especially around BLM and anti-Trump stuff in general, even from typically apolitical sources.
Nowadays you just don't hear nearly as much from that. Perhaps part of it is due to the activist left focusing all their attention on Gaza (which they oppose Biden on) compared to BLM in 2020 (which they aligned with Biden on).

[Spectator]

I agree that the cultural environment is more right-leaning than it was in 2020.
In 2020 there was a LOT of left-wing trends especially around BLM and anti-Trump stuff in general, even from typically apolitical sources.
Nowadays you just don't hear nearly as much from that. Perhaps part of it is due to the activist left focusing all their attention on Gaza (which they oppose Biden on) compared to BLM in 2020 (which they aligned with Biden on).

It comes and goes. The social change fervor in American politics typically is propelled in opposition to who is in the White House. Bush’s term spurred a lot of anti-war activism, and Obama’s spurred a lot of anti-government/anti-immigrant fervor on the right. Trump had the #MeToo and BLM protests all happen. Now Biden’s is Gaza and illegal immigration.

If Trump gets back in, the pendulum will swing again in reaction to him/GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I agree that the cultural environment is more right-leaning than it was in 2020.
In 2020 there was a LOT of left-wing trends especially around BLM and anti-Trump stuff in general, even from typically apolitical sources.
Nowadays you just don't hear nearly as much from that. Perhaps part of it is due to the activist left focusing all their attention on Gaza (which they oppose Biden on) compared to BLM in 2020 (which they aligned with Biden on).

It comes and goes. The social change fervor in American politics typically is propelled in opposition to who is in the White House. Bush’s term spurred a lot of anti-war activism, and Obama’s spurred a lot of anti-government/anti-immigrant fervor on the right. Trump had the #MeToo and BLM protests all happen. Now Biden’s is Gaza and illegal immigration.

If Trump gets back in, the pendulum will swing again in reaction to him/GOP.

True. Although that doesn't excuse Trump coming into power again. Americans ought to consider who they believe is more likely to listen to them when they protest a President. Trump certainly isn't open to listening to anyone, and impending protests in his second term will be quashed and derided. Having a good faith President, like Biden, even if he isn't perfect, is worth its weight in gold compared to the likely disarray of the next Trump administration.

[Obama24]

I do not believe there will be any Trump landslide. If he wins, it will be by at best the same electoral college margins as he won in 2016. I truthfully cannot see a Trump victory being any greater than that; and I can see many ways it would both much narrower.

The RFK factor I feel is the undefined one in this election. There is a deep sense of unhappiness with both mainstream candidates and a lack of enthusiasm. One wonders if neither Trump nor Biden will fail to capture a majority of the popular vote, akin to 1996 or 2000.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't be a Trump slide

[DS0816]

…
What do ya'll think?

I consider a “landslide” presidential election outcome one in which the winner carried at least 40 states—which are an average of 4 out of every 5 states—and 400 electoral votes.

This has not happened since the 1980s, with winning Republicans Ronald Reagan (44 and 49 states and 489 and 525 electoral votes) and George Bush (40 states and 426 electoral votes). For the Democrats, this last happened 60 years ago in 1964 with Lyndon Johnson (44 states, plus first-time voting District of Columbia, and 486 electoral votes). In between was the 1972 re-election for Richard Nixon (49 states and an original 521 electoral votes).

Since 1992, the average number of carried states are 29. Winning Republican averaged 30 carried states. Winning Democrats averaged 28 carried states. Range has been 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) and 32 (a 1992 Bill Clinton) carried states.

We are not in era of landslides. The result are more like “on the edge” or “on the margins”—reaching 270 electoral votes, via the Tipping-Point State, and with moderate padding of an additional +2 or +3 states.

[morgankingsley]

A landslide can be defined as 3 ways (imo)

1 - Popular vote win by at least 10 points

2 - 40 states or more (35 if you're REALLY pushing it)

3 - 75 percent of the electoral vote or more, meaning the losing candidate didn't even get half of what they needed

Reagan in 1984 was the last one to reach the first requirement, Bush Sr. was the most recent to fill the third column, as well as the second (regardless if you go with 40 or 35).

The most realistic one for Trump to meet would be number 2, if you go with 35. He already won 25 in 2020 and 30 in 2016. From 20 give him Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsalvania, and Michigan. I can realistically see those 6 going to him. That's 31. From there, if you go by his losing margins in 2020, the next ones to follow suit would be Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado. Only 2-3 of those could I see even a like say 5 percent chance of somewhat realistically happening (MN, NH, ME), which would put him at 34, one short of the requirement of number 2, of 35 if you're generous. IE, I don't think it's happening