NYT: Republicans and Democrats trade places on turnout

[wbrocks67]

Voted in 2022 primary election: Biden +5
Voted in 2022 midterms, but not primaries: Biden +1
All 2022 voters: Biden +3
2022 midterm or 2020 presidential voters: Biden +2
Voted in 2020 presidential, but not primaries or midterms: Trump +1
No voting history: Trump +14

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/upshot/election-democrats-republicans-turnout-trump.html

Once again, the only way Trump really gets any lead is with voters who literally have *never* voted before in their life. There's not much reason to believe they'll start now. It's pretty telling that the only group that Trump does well with and that props him up is ones that have the least likelihood in voting.

Also this part: "Almost by definition, low-turnout Democrats were not as driven to vote to stop Mr. Trump in 2018, 2020 or 2022. Many of them didn’t vote, after all."

Honestly, if you didn't even bother to vote in 2018, 2020, or 2022, then theres a) no reason to believe you will this year and b) no reason to believe you'd vote for Biden even while being a "Democrat" if you didn't bother voting for him in 2020

[President Johnson]

What's definitely true is that Biden's and Democrats' strongest support his among high-propensity voters. It's not that much of a surprise though, because if you objectively follow the news (instead of right-wing propaganda channels and posters in X/TikTok), it's quite clear there's only one sane option in this election. Sorry to sound hackish here, but you can't convince me otherwise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This seems to be the defining state of our politics lately, and what turnout looks like in November may very well determjne the election.

If Democrats do indeed turn out more, it will likely defy the polls a la 2022.

It's just that lingering question of whether Trump really can be what gets his voters to cone out of the woodwork like cicadas for this one occasion.

[wbrocks67]

What's definitely true is that Biden's and Democrats' strongest support his among high-propensity voters. It's not that much of a surprise though, because if you objectively follow the news (instead of right-wing propaganda channels and posters in X/TikTok), it's quite clear there's only one sane option in this election. Sorry to sound hackish here, but you can't convince me otherwise.

However, calling "anyone who voted in 2020 or 2022" a "high propensity voter" isn't even true though, that's quite a lot of people. 2022 is one thing, but once you add in 2020 in there, it's no longer about propensity.

Bottom line, the people that regularly vote are voting for Biden.

The thing that people like Cohn have yet to explain is where is the proof that any of these "nonvoting history" folks are going to vote. What is the point of referencing them when there isn't much likelihood of them voting? Or, Cohn should've presented where these people land in their LV model. How many of them say they'll vote even though they never have?

[Podgy the Bear]

And high propensity voters including blacks that are family, work, and church oriented.  These are the ones that will turn out to vote and will vote Democratic.   They're not going to give up the right that their parents and grandparents fought so hard to get by not voting (and they're not going to vote for Trump).

Trump's appeal to suppress the black vote doesn't have an impact on the above.  It may have an effect on those who couldn't (felony convictions) vote.   

[Ljube]

Trump doesn't want to suppress anyone's vote.
His advantage is with the people who have never voted and presumably aren't even registered to vote.

This is another new phenomenon.
In all previous elections the Democrats had the voter registration drives. But in this election, it is the Republicans who are attempting to register new voters.

This will easily explain the 2022 results and the polls.

The result will depend on the turnout of these new Trump voters.

[wnwnwn]

Yes, but does the latter cover young people who will voye for the first time?
I don't think Trump will perform a la Nixon with young voters.

[xavier110]

I think it’s time to implement that civics exam conservatives demanded for decades to be eligible to vote.

[kwabbit]

What's definitely true is that Biden's and Democrats' strongest support his among high-propensity voters. It's not that much of a surprise though, because if you objectively follow the news (instead of right-wing propaganda channels and posters in X/TikTok), it's quite clear there's only one sane option in this election. Sorry to sound hackish here, but you can't convince me otherwise.

However, calling "anyone who voted in 2020 or 2022" a "high propensity voter" isn't even true though, that's quite a lot of people. 2022 is one thing, but once you add in 2020 in there, it's no longer about propensity.

Bottom line, the people that regularly vote are voting for Biden.

The thing that people like Cohn have yet to explain is where is the proof that any of these "nonvoting history" folks are going to vote. What is the point of referencing them when there isn't much likelihood of them voting? Or, Cohn should've presented where these people land in their LV model. How many of them say they'll vote even though they never have?

There's significant churn in the electorate, even going from a historically high turnout election to a presumably moderate turnout 2024. 2008 to 2012 is a decent comparison and I believe the electorate was 11-12% new in 2012. In 2020 it was closer to 20%. It's more than just the minimum from generational turnover. It's going to be at least 10% in 2024, so while explaining the behavior of this portion of the electorate is difficult, it's a simple fact that it's a large voting bloc.

NYT assigns a voting probability based on vote history AND stated probability of voting. A person who has never voted but says they are certain to vote will still only get half weight, while someone who has voted in every primary and general will get a lot of weight even if they say they are uncertain to vote.

Cohn doesn't need proof that any of these people are going to vote. If he can empirically derive a probability of voting then he can weight them appropriately in an LV model. And it's not like they are being overweighted either. NYT has found fairly large gaps between RV and LV, they aren't simply being taken at their word.

[King Man]

It has been like this since Covid, because Covid spurred the realign of working class people to the GOP and the realignment of College educated 'elites' toward the DEMs.

[heatcharger]

It has been like this since Covid, because Covid spurred the realign of working class people to the GOP and the realignment of College educated 'elites' toward the DEMs.

True.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It has been like this since Covid, because Covid spurred the realign of working class people to the GOP and the realignment of College educated 'elites' toward the DEMs.

COVID might have cemented it, but 2018 might have been the real realignment.

[Mehmentum]

Based on exit polls, Biden won first time voters (14% of the electorate) by 32 points in 2020.  First time midterm election voters (12% of the electorate) went to Republicans by 8 points in 2022.  Though Democrats won the very small amount of 2020 nonvoters by 1 point.  In 2018 Democrats won first time midterm voters (16% of the electorate) by 26.  So something did seem to happen in 2022 that could presage first time voters being right leaning this time around.  The timing is very odd though.

This change wasn't accompanied by a shift rightward with younger voters.  This would be easier to accomplish in a lower turnout midterm. Still, that means that Republicans had to have won first time midterm voters who hadn't come of age in the past four years by *a lot* (like, 30 points).

I am a little surprised about Biden winning 2022 voters.  Republicans won the house vote, so what, did Biden gain ground with these voters in the past 2 years?  Doesn't seem likely.  Meanwhile he does seem to be losing a small amount ground with the 2020 electorate (but not that much).

[ajc0918]

Assuming this article is correct on the voting patterns of the parties, don't you think it should be the Trump campaign that is investing in a GOTV operation? Biden will have the upper hand in getting his lower-propensity voters to vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are more Ds than Rs in blue not red states, that's why I keep saying stop worrying

[ProgressiveModerate]

Based on exit polls, Biden won first time voters (14% of the electorate) by 32 points in 2020.  First time midterm election voters (12% of the electorate) went to Republicans by 8 points in 2022.  Though Democrats won the very small amount of 2020 nonvoters by 1 point.  In 2018 Democrats won first time midterm voters (16% of the electorate) by 26.  So something did seem to happen in 2022 that could presage first time voters being right leaning this time around.  The timing is very odd though.

This change wasn't accompanied by a shift rightward with younger voters.  This would be easier to accomplish in a lower turnout midterm. Still, that means that Republicans had to have won first time midterm voters who hadn't come of age in the past four years by *a lot* (like, 30 points).

I am a little surprised about Biden winning 2022 voters.  Republicans won the house vote, so what, did Biden gain ground with these voters in the past 2 years?  Doesn't seem likely.  Meanwhile he does seem to be losing a small amount ground with the 2020 electorate (but not that much).

To add on to this point, Biden is basically sure to win the 18-22 year old first time voters who were just too young to vote in 2020 for Pres, and that group typically makes up a pretty significant share of first time voters, which is why these Trump + 20 numbers amongst first time voters either have a bad youth sample and/or have Trump winning older previous non-voters by like 40% which is insane.

[Nyvin]

It has been like this since Covid, because Covid spurred the realign of working class people to the GOP and the realignment of College educated 'elites' toward the DEMs.

Nah, it's been trending that way for quite a while.   Even Obama 2008 to Obama 2012 saw massive drops in support from white working class.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Based on exit polls, Biden won first time voters (14% of the electorate) by 32 points in 2020.  First time midterm election voters (12% of the electorate) went to Republicans by 8 points in 2022.  Though Democrats won the very small amount of 2020 nonvoters by 1 point.  In 2018 Democrats won first time midterm voters (16% of the electorate) by 26.  So something did seem to happen in 2022 that could presage first time voters being right leaning this time around.  The timing is very odd though.

This change wasn't accompanied by a shift rightward with younger voters.  This would be easier to accomplish in a lower turnout midterm. Still, that means that Republicans had to have won first time midterm voters who hadn't come of age in the past four years by *a lot* (like, 30 points).

I am a little surprised about Biden winning 2022 voters.  Republicans won the house vote, so what, did Biden gain ground with these voters in the past 2 years?  Doesn't seem likely.  Meanwhile he does seem to be losing a small amount ground with the 2020 electorate (but not that much).

To add on to this point, Biden is basically sure to win the 18-22 year old first time voters who were just too young to vote in 2020 for Pres, and that group typically makes up a pretty significant share of first time voters, which is why these Trump + 20 numbers amongst first time voters either have a bad youth sample and/or have Trump winning older previous non-voters by like 40% which is insane.

Another thing to keep in mind is that because 2022 first time non-young voters are a pretty small group, the exit poll is less likely to be accurate due to the usual sample size/error reasons.

[David Hume]

Based on exit polls, Biden won first time voters (14% of the electorate) by 32 points in 2020.  First time midterm election voters (12% of the electorate) went to Republicans by 8 points in 2022.  Though Democrats won the very small amount of 2020 nonvoters by 1 point.  In 2018 Democrats won first time midterm voters (16% of the electorate) by 26.  So something did seem to happen in 2022 that could presage first time voters being right leaning this time around.  The timing is very odd though.

This change wasn't accompanied by a shift rightward with younger voters.  This would be easier to accomplish in a lower turnout midterm. Still, that means that Republicans had to have won first time midterm voters who hadn't come of age in the past four years by *a lot* (like, 30 points).

I am a little surprised about Biden winning 2022 voters.  Republicans won the house vote, so what, did Biden gain ground with these voters in the past 2 years?  Doesn't seem likely.  Meanwhile he does seem to be losing a small amount ground with the 2020 electorate (but not that much).

I guess R won first time voters in 2010 and 2014?

[Mehmentum]

Based on exit polls, Biden won first time voters (14% of the electorate) by 32 points in 2020.  First time midterm election voters (12% of the electorate) went to Republicans by 8 points in 2022.  Though Democrats won the very small amount of 2020 nonvoters by 1 point.  In 2018 Democrats won first time midterm voters (16% of the electorate) by 26.  So something did seem to happen in 2022 that could presage first time voters being right leaning this time around.  The timing is very odd though.

This change wasn't accompanied by a shift rightward with younger voters.  This would be easier to accomplish in a lower turnout midterm. Still, that means that Republicans had to have won first time midterm voters who hadn't come of age in the past four years by *a lot* (like, 30 points).

I am a little surprised about Biden winning 2022 voters.  Republicans won the house vote, so what, did Biden gain ground with these voters in the past 2 years?  Doesn't seem likely.  Meanwhile he does seem to be losing a small amount ground with the 2020 electorate (but not that much).

I guess R won first time voters in 2010 and 2014?

They didn't ask in 2014, in 2010 Democrats won them by 2 points.

[BlueSwan]

Once again, the only way Trump really gets any lead is with voters who literally have *never* voted before in their life. There's not much reason to believe they'll start now.

Isn't there? Already in 2020 Trump energized a LOT of new voters. I mean, this was probably largely the explanation for why the polls underestimated Trump as much as they did. Before the 2020 election we were all talking about how Trump wouldn't be able to expand his 2016 coalition due to his piss poor handling of the presidency and his voter base dying out, yet he got 11+ million more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. I myself was pretty shocked by that. Don't underestimate how much really mindnumbingly dumb people with zero political understanding just absolutely worship Trump. It is a disease and it is spreading.

[wbrocks67]

Assuming this article is correct on the voting patterns of the parties, don't you think it should be the Trump campaign that is investing in a GOTV operation? Biden will have the upper hand in getting his lower-propensity voters to vote.

Exactly this - his entire polling lead is built on people who have never voted before. Yet his team is seemingly doing nothing to actually get them out. Biden has the upper hand here if he can coalesce his coalition together.

[BlueSwan]

Assuming this article is correct on the voting patterns of the parties, don't you think it should be the Trump campaign that is investing in a GOTV operation? Biden will have the upper hand in getting his lower-propensity voters to vote.

Exactly this - his entire polling lead is built on people who have never voted before. Yet his team is seemingly doing nothing to actually get them out. Biden has the upper hand here if he can coalesce his coalition together.

The problem is that Trump also had an awful ground game in 2016 and he still managed to energize lots of low propensity voters.

[President Johnson]

Assuming this article is correct on the voting patterns of the parties, don't you think it should be the Trump campaign that is investing in a GOTV operation? Biden will have the upper hand in getting his lower-propensity voters to vote.

Exactly this - his entire polling lead is built on people who have never voted before. Yet his team is seemingly doing nothing to actually get them out. Biden has the upper hand here if he can coalesce his coalition together.

The problem is that Trump also had an awful ground game in 2016 and he still managed to energize lots of low propensity voters.

True, though the Trump of 2016 is a lot different from today. He's no longer the unknown outsider and seems a lot less energetic these days.

[Nyvin]

Assuming this article is correct on the voting patterns of the parties, don't you think it should be the Trump campaign that is investing in a GOTV operation? Biden will have the upper hand in getting his lower-propensity voters to vote.

I'd also like to think a lot of people realized he's a completely inept president too.

Exactly this - his entire polling lead is built on people who have never voted before. Yet his team is seemingly doing nothing to actually get them out. Biden has the upper hand here if he can coalesce his coalition together.

The problem is that Trump also had an awful ground game in 2016 and he still managed to energize lots of low propensity voters.

True, though the Trump of 2016 is a lot different from today. He's no longer the unknown outsider and seems a lot less energetic these days.