AZ S Rassy Gallego +4
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Author Topic: AZ S Rassy Gallego +4  (Read 455 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: June 14, 2024, 11:49:50 AM »
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1801656628770378092
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2024, 11:58:33 AM »
How is Lake doing so much worse than Trump? For that record, why is polarization going way down in 2024 of all years?
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2024, 12:36:49 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on June 14, 2024, 11:58:33 AM
How is Lake doing so much worse than Trump? For that record, why is polarization going way down in 2024 of all years?

The most likely answer is probably that it isn't.
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Spectator
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2024, 02:20:25 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on June 14, 2024, 12:36:49 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on June 14, 2024, 11:58:33 AM
How is Lake doing so much worse than Trump? For that record, why is polarization going way down in 2024 of all years?

The most likely answer is probably that it isn't.

Idk. 10 points isn’t really that large of ticket-splitting. Nowadays it seems like a lot, but even last cycle in Georgia (a famously inelastic state), there was a 10-point ticket split between the Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevada was only 2.5 points (but had two Dem incumbents), New Hampshire was 25 points, and Arizona was 4. Kansas was a staggering 26 points. Pennsylvania was 10.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2024, 02:37:26 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on June 14, 2024, 02:20:25 PM
Quote from: DaleCooper on June 14, 2024, 12:36:49 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on June 14, 2024, 11:58:33 AM
How is Lake doing so much worse than Trump? For that record, why is polarization going way down in 2024 of all years?

The most likely answer is probably that it isn't.

Idk. 10 points isn’t really that large of ticket-splitting. Nowadays it seems like a lot, but even last cycle in Georgia (a famously inelastic state), there was a 10-point ticket split between the Senate and gubernatorial races. Nevada was only 2.5 points (but had two Dem incumbents), New Hampshire was 25 points, and Arizona was 4. Kansas was a staggering 26 points. Pennsylvania was 10.

There was a huge poll error in AZ with Trafalgar when they Pred Lake to win in 22 you know that, that's why we Ds don't believe the AZ/NV polls
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2024, 06:15:25 PM »
Even Rasmussen can't find Lake close.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM »
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2024, 11:04:45 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!

The GOP looks like it'll be lucky to win both of Ohio and Montana at this rate.

Their best recruits are in Maryland and New Jersey, for f***'s sake!
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Spectator
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« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2024, 07:57:29 AM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on June 14, 2024, 11:04:45 PM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!

The GOP looks like it'll be lucky to win both of Ohio and Montana at this rate.

Their best recruits are in Maryland and New Jersey, for f***'s sake!

Can’t forget Jim Justice being hailed as this huge (well, I guess he is huge) recruit of the cycle in R+40 West Virginia lol
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2024, 08:52:36 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!

What I’ve heard is that Daines/NRSC coalesced around Lake to humor Trump so he wouldn’t sabotage their picks in other races.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2024, 09:04:36 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on June 15, 2024, 08:52:36 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!

What I’ve heard is that Daines/NRSC coalesced around Lake to humor Trump so he wouldn’t sabotage their picks in other races.
Their picks in other races were absolute garbage. Rogers isn't even that good
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Spectator
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2024, 10:24:01 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 15, 2024, 09:04:36 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on June 15, 2024, 08:52:36 AM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 14, 2024, 06:31:53 PM
So much for unbeatable Titan Steve Daines, Id give him an F with these clowns like Lake blowing winnable races! Jesus!

What I’ve heard is that Daines/NRSC coalesced around Lake to humor Trump so he wouldn’t sabotage their picks in other races.
Their picks in other races were absolute garbage. Rogers isn't even that good

It is worth repeating: no one is better at electing Democrats than Republican operatives (aside from perhaps GOP primary voters)
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2024, 10:28:42 AM »
Lake probably isn't winning this, but I expect the race to tighten significantly as partisanship kicks in and the race gets closer to Biden's performance in Arizona (which I expect to be a loss).
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Spectator
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« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2024, 10:50:10 AM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on June 15, 2024, 10:28:42 AM
Lake probably isn't winning this, but I expect the race to tighten significantly as partisanship kicks in and the race gets closer to Biden's performance in Arizona (which I expect to be a loss).

You predicting a Lake loss is probably the worst sign for Gallego yet.
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