Monmouth: T 44 Def/Prob B 43 Def/Prob

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_061324/

Wish they would start doing H2H

[wbrocks67]

Yeah it's kind of a major cop out at this point for them to do a H2H GCB question (which was R+3...) but not do a direct H2H for presidential.

[kwabbit]

Unchanged from April. Monmouth has been oddly stagnant for a pollster that typically has smaller sample sizes. They have 1,034 RVs which is a good amount but the last 5 polls have been Trump +1, tied, Trump +2, Trump +1, Trump +1.

[wbrocks67]

White voters
GCB: R+17 (56-39)
Prez: R+14 (51-37)

Nonwhite voters
GCB: D+24 (57-33)
Prez: D+24 (54-30)

Moderate voters
GCB: D+19 (56-37)
Prez: D+23 (56-33)

Independent voters
GCB: R+8 (47-39)
Prez: R+7 (43-36)

Interesting given the "Dems have a Biden specific problem"!

Republicans also lead on the GCB among young voters by 2, 46-44.

It's not about being a poll denier this time around, but if you're not critically analyzing polling right now, you should be. There's a LOT of stuff all over the place.

[kwabbit]

Interesting given the "Dems have a Biden specific problem"!

Democrats do have a Biden specific problem if Biden dramatically underperforms any named D congressional candidate vs. named GOP congressional candidate. The GCB does not really disprove that narrative, given that Trump is also a weak candidate, perhaps weaker than Biden. The weaknesses cancel out and you get something similar to the GCB.

The difference is that Senate Democrats are rated as Generic Ds or stronger, while Senate GOP candidates are rated as weaker than Generic R, either because of name recognition, carpetbagging, or extremism. The public has a generous view of the Generic R and seldom does an actual candidate realize that strength. This cycle only Rogers is coming close, which makes sense as he was a typical Republican during the pre-Trump era, and subsequently there is the smallest gap between Presidential and Senate in Michigan.

[Redban]

Correct -- comparing Biden/Trump to general congressional ballot doesn't offer the conclusion  that Dems don't have a Biden specific problem. Trump isn't as strong as the generic Republican. Haley probably polled like a generic R when they did Biden / Haley  polls, and she used to lead Biden by double digits sometimes

If they did Generic D vs Trump and found that Generic D performed the same as Biden, then we can conclude that there isn’t a Biden specific problem

[Spectator]

Interesting given the "Dems have a Biden specific problem"!

Democrats do have a Biden specific problem if Biden dramatically underperforms any named D congressional candidate vs. named GOP congressional candidate. The GCB does not really disprove that narrative, given that Trump is also a weak candidate, perhaps weaker than Biden. The weaknesses cancel out and you get something similar to the GCB.

The difference is that Senate Democrats are rated as Generic Ds or stronger, while Senate GOP candidates are rated as weaker than Generic R, either because of name recognition, carpetbagging, or extremism. The public has a generous view of the Generic R and seldom does an actual candidate realize that strength. This cycle only Rogers is coming close, which makes sense as he was a typical Republican during the pre-Trump era, and subsequently there is the smallest gap between Presidential and Senate in Michigan.

Rogers should have ran for Senate in 2014. He probably would have won.

And yea, I don’t see why this is so hard for wbrocks. Biden is not a strong candidate, and Harris is even worse if she were to replace him. This is evident when basically every congressional poll has Democratic incumbents and challengers alike running ahead of Biden from anywhere between 2 and 12 points. Possibly more, we haven’t gotten any indication of what the Montana Senate race is looking like.

[axiomsofdominion]

Harris is a C- candidate. Biden is a B- candidate. Trump is, somehow, a C+ candidate. Of course I'm a Bernie bro so maybe I'm biased against establishment Dems. Biden's better than I expected, though.

[dspNY]

Trump approval is 43/56 and Biden approval is 40/59

[wbrocks67]

My point was moreso that given the GCB aligns with the prez toplines is likely more of a result of the sampling than anything else.

i.e., Republicans lead with young voters on GCB and Biden/Trump matchup. So it's more likely than not it's just a more conservative sample of young voters than anything else. Same with Independents, etc

[Comrade Funk]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Said it on another thread, if Biden is tied in Popular vote he is definitely not down by 9 in NV or 8 in AZ more like 3 which is well within MOE

[Spectator]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

The Democrats are probably better off long-term with a split result like that anyway. Trump with a Democratic congress or tied Senate would be handicapped at the knees off the bat. A second Trump term with him approaching dementia is going to be bad. Really bad for the GOP’s electoral prospects. Trump will have been the face of the GOP for over a dozen years, and that will probably cause irreparable damage to the GOP’s brand among those under 50 as the Boomers die off.

[wbrocks67]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

It's wild how you can be a member of a forum like this and still recite talking points like "they allowed him to run again." I expect that from people on Twitter who know nothing about anything, but not from people on this board.

[wbrocks67]

I'm curious if Monmouth's same problems in 2022 have been solved. They wiffed really hard on their final poll then - especially among Independents - having R+12 when Ds ended up winning by 2.

[axiomsofdominion]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

It's wild how you can be a member of a forum like this and still recite talking points like "they allowed him to run again." I expect that from people on Twitter who know nothing about anything, but not from people on this board.

What? Sturgeon's Law. 90% of people on this politics and elections forum know crap-all about even basic stuff and are as dumb as hell.

[dspNY]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

The Democrats are probably better off long-term with a split result like that anyway. Trump with a Democratic congress or tied Senate would be handicapped at the knees off the bat. A second Trump term with him approaching dementia is going to be bad. Really bad for the GOP’s electoral prospects. Trump will have been the face of the GOP for over a dozen years, and that will probably cause irreparable damage to the GOP’s brand among those under 50 as the Boomers die off.

I wouldn’t say Trump is approaching dementia. He already has moderate dementia and if that recent Vegas rally and Capitol Hill meeting are any indications, he might be falling off the cliff as we speak

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Biden loses then approval ratings really are all that matters.

I'm livid that Trump continues to have better approvals, especially now that he is an official criminal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden loses then approval ratings really are all that matters.

I'm livid that Trump continues to have better approvals, especially now that he is an official criminal.

Lol we haven't voted yet when we vote and when Biden prevails we will all laugh at these polls like we did in 22, it's only June too

[GAinDC]

If Biden loses then approval ratings really are all that matters.

I'm livid that Trump continues to have better approvals, especially now that he is an official criminal.

Remember, his supporters feel the need to rally around him right now, which also might make them more likely to answer polls.

Trump and Biden have similar approvals, but the basis of that disapproval is different. Biden is in the same situation as every major leader right now -- being blamed for the craziness of the last few years, but not hated by most voters. Trump's approval and disapproval is much stronger and more baked in.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty useless. We are down bad when it comes to quality polling this cycle.

[GAinDC]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

What are you talking about? The Democratic primary voters are the ones who "allowed" Biden to run again by voting for him overwhelmingly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The crosstabs gang can only complain because there's nothing to celebrate about. Casey/Brown/Gallego all up, yet Biden is almost always down. The fact they allowed him to run again is nothing more than straight incompetence and cowardice.

The percentages are so low because both candidates suck. 2016 was no different and I expect a similar result.

What are you talking about? The Democratic primary voters are the ones who "allowed" Biden to run again by voting for him overwhelmingly.

The DS had no choice Harris said she was running VP and Newsom said he isn't running til 28