French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Oryxslayer]

Elabe
 
Seats
RN+UXD : 250-280
NFP : 150-170
Macronista : 90-110
LR+DVD : 35-45
Others : 10-12

Turnout : 62%

Sounds like the 2022 results with the roles of RN and ENS reversed and LR splitting into pro-RN and anti-RN factors.  I wish these were going to be the results but I doubt RN will do this well.   The second round tactical vote will go against the perceived front-runner.  That hurt ENS in 2022 and this time it will hurt RN.

To some degree, it hurt LREM in 2017 as well (i.e. there was a lot of presumption that they'd be headed for an even more top-heavy legislative landslide than they managed).

Not to mention that the nature of the frontrunner might lead to a lot of reawakened "cordon sanitaire" spot strategic thinking...

That viability of this effect of course depends entirely on the number of triangulaires, which may hit a record high with large turnout and 3 clear blocks.

[jaichind]

That viability of this effect of course depends entirely on the number of triangulaires, which may hit a record high with large turnout and 3 clear blocks.

I agree.  The higher the turnout on the first round the better it is for RN for the second round.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/camaradeRaul/status/1804634237301068032

Seems like no-one really likes Melenchon.

To translate the tweet, basically a local PTB chair who says Ruffin at the very least represents the working class, while Melenchon represents the petite bourgeoisie. PVDA-PTB people not really liking Melenchon is something i've also noticed myself, in part due to our ties with the PCF in France.

[RGM2609]

In what sort of places are the Macronists most likely to hold their seats?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since the polls so far are awfully similar to the EU elections, give or take a few points, it's worth taking a look of what they elections looked like constituency by constituency. I've grouped the Popular Front lists together as well as RN with Reconquête (since they can probably be counted on to support RN either by the first round or in the runoff). In addition, I've taken into account that LR voters could either join the macronists or the far-right, so I marked off the constituency where they make a difference with special colors. Here's what it looks like:



EXD majority: 64
EXD >45%: 82
EXD ahead: 206
Total: 352

FP majority: 47
FP >45%: 30
FP ahead: 73
Total: 150

LR ahead: 1
ENS ahead: 3

EXD with LR sup: 63
ENS with LR sup: 3
ENS or EXD with LR sup: 5

So... yeah, without some degree of tactical mutual support between Macronistas and the Popular Front in the runoff, we are looking at a potential bloodbath. Of course the patterns are going to be at least somewhat different, and local candidacies will matter a lot, but this at least gives you a place for where to look come next Sunday.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I would honestly not be surprised if BIBI EMMANUEL MELEK YISROEL FRANCE gets into the runoff in a couple dozen seats out of over five hundred and treats this as a MASSIVE MANDATE to keep pwning the leftoids with, so if that happens we would probably be looking at a Union of the Extreme Right majority or even supermajority government on these numbers.

[LabourJersey]

Since the polls so far are awfully similar to the EU elections, give or take a few points, it's worth taking a look of what they elections looked like constituency by constituency. I've grouped the Popular Front lists together as well as RN with Reconquête (since they can probably be counted on to support RN either by the first round or in the runoff). In addition, I've taken into account that LR voters could either join the macronists or the far-right, so I marked off the constituency where they make a difference with special colors. Here's what it looks like:



EXD majority: 64
EXD >45%: 82
EXD ahead: 206
Total: 352

FP majority: 47
FP >45%: 30
FP ahead: 73
Total: 150

LR ahead: 1
ENS ahead: 3

EXD with LR sup: 63
ENS with LR sup: 3
ENS or EXD with LR sup: 5

So... yeah, without some degree of tactical mutual support between Macronistas and the Popular Front in the runoff, we are looking at a potential bloodbath. Of course the patterns are going to be at least somewhat different, and local candidacies will matter a lot, but this at least gives you a place for where to look come next Sunday.

Wow!

What were Macron and his advisers thinking when they called this election...

[adma]

One sorta-caveat I have is: don't EU elections have more of a tendency to be a place to electorally "vent"?  Which is why patterns there (including, back in the day, when the UK was part of it all) tend to be more "un-mainstream" than on a national parliamentary level.

Which is why I'm guarded about *how* much reach RN might have here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One sorta-caveat I have is: don't EU elections have more of a tendency to be a place to electorally "vent"?  Which is why patterns there (including, back in the day, when the UK was part of it all) tend to be more "un-mainstream" than on a national parliamentary level.

Which is why I'm guarded about *how* much reach RN might have here.

I'd think so too but the legislative polls so far seem to mach the EU results. We'll find out in a week I suppose.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Wow!

What were Macron and his advisers thinking when they called this election...

Well, first of all, I am not sure his advisors were thinking. Macron was thinking his thoughts. But were his advisors really telling him to do this? If not, they should not be blamed for the thinking.

It seems like the only possible way it could be "going according to plan" is if the plan was intentionally to lose because Macron thinks that the best thing (or at any rate the least bad thing of things that are achievable) is for the RN to win and be forced to govern, with the idea that them being in government (with Macron still there to make sure things don't go too far off the rails) will lower their popularity subsequently.

That's obviously a very risky scheme, even if that was actually the plan in the first place.

If that was not the plan, then it isn't going according to plan.

[adma]

One sorta-caveat I have is: don't EU elections have more of a tendency to be a place to electorally "vent"?  Which is why patterns there (including, back in the day, when the UK was part of it all) tend to be more "un-mainstream" than on a national parliamentary level.

Which is why I'm guarded about *how* much reach RN might have here.

I'd think so too but the legislative polls so far seem to mach the EU results. We'll find out in a week I suppose.

Or rather, in *two* weeks, because of the age-old "second round surprise" factor.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will the NFP name a candidate for PM before the election, or what is their plan?

[Logical]

Ifop rolling poll

RN consolidates the far right vote, NFP stagnant as they go on without a PM face, Macronie stumbles.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will the NFP name a candidate for PM before the election, or what is their plan?

Nope, it seems like the plan is to decide it based on the number of MPs each party will get. All the non-FI party have made it clear they wouldn't support Mélenchon though.

[jaichind]

https://inwebitrust.com/legislatives-2024/projection/

Has different scenarios on how the second round could go

[Former President tack50]

Wow!

What were Macron and his advisers thinking when they called this election...

Well, first of all, I am not sure his advisors were thinking. Macron was thinking his thoughts. But were his advisors really telling him to do this? If not, they should not be blamed for the thinking.

It seems like the only possible way it could be "going according to plan" is if the plan was intentionally to lose because Macron thinks that the best thing (or at any rate the least bad thing of things that are achievable) is for the RN to win and be forced to govern, with the idea that them being in government (with Macron still there to make sure things don't go too far off the rails) will lower their popularity subsequently.

That's obviously a very risky scheme, even if that was actually the plan in the first place.

If that was not the plan, then it isn't going according to plan.

If that was the plan, I guess president Hindemburg does indeed agree the best thing is to let the far right party get into power. What could possibly go wrong?

I suppose at least this time there isn't left wing infighting

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not convinced that the plan ran any deeper than Robert Muldoon's did in 1984 if you *hic* follow...

[The Mikado]

Stupid question, but:

Are the larger runoffs if candidates surpass 12.5% of the potential vote limited to 3 candidates? Could you have a 4 way runoff if you had, say, 60% turnout and four candidates getting a quarter of the vote?

[Hash]

Stupid question, but:

Are the larger runoffs if candidates surpass 12.5% of the potential vote limited to 3 candidates? Could you have a 4 way runoff if you had, say, 60% turnout and four candidates getting a quarter of the vote?

They're not limited to three candidates - any candidates surpassing 12.5% of registered voters are qualified for the runoff, so there could in theory be a quadrangulaire.

However, there's never been a quadrangulaire ever since the qualification threshold was raised in 1976 - the last one was in 1973. It seems highly unlikely we'll ever see one in a legislative election, this year or in the future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Stupid question, but:

Are the larger runoffs if candidates surpass 12.5% of the potential vote limited to 3 candidates? Could you have a 4 way runoff if you had, say, 60% turnout and four candidates getting a quarter of the vote?

It could be as many as reach 12.5% of eligible voters, so with 100% turnout and a perfectly equal vote split you could have a maximum of 8 candidates. In practice, given the current array of forces, I doubt we'll get more than 3 anywhere, although 4 is conceivable if turnout reaches the mid-60s.

[DL]

How many people both to vote for third place candidates in triangulaires in the second round. For example, let's say in a certain district, the RN and NFP candidates each have 40% of the vote and a 3rd place Macronist just barely clears the hurdle with about 15% of the vote - do the people who voted for that 3rd place Macronist even bother to vote at all? Seems like its so obviously a waste of time.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A few questions about LR:

* Are the Ciotti LR-RN candidates running under the label of LR, RN or something else?
* Will they run against anti-Ciotti LR candidates?
* Have they coordinated their candidacies with LePen to have RN support or will they also be running against RN?
* Does anyone have an idea of what proportion of the Ciotti LR candidates are likely to make it to runoffs as compared to anti-Ciotti LR candidates? Would a strong performance from either side shift their control over the party or would it not matter?

[DL]

Rafael Glucksmann tweets:

C’est désormais clair et net : Jean-Luc Mélenchon ne sera pas Premier Ministre vu que tous les autres partis s’y opposent. On peut maintenant se concentrer sur le véritable enjeu qui est d’empêcher que Jordan Bardella le soit, lui? Car cette hypothèse est très réaliste, elle.

In other words there is a popular front within the popular front against the pro-Putin crackpot Melenchon

[MaxQue]

A few questions about LR:

* Are the Ciotti LR-RN candidates running under the label of LR, RN or something else?
* Will they run against anti-Ciotti LR candidates?
* Have they coordinated their candidacies with LePen to have RN support or will they also be running against RN?
* Does anyone have an idea of what proportion of the Ciotti LR candidates are likely to make it to runoffs as compared to anti-Ciotti LR candidates? Would a strong performance from either side shift their control over the party or would it not matter?

1. Les Amis d'Éric Ciotti (Éric Ciotti's Friends)
2. Yes
3. Yes, through I think at least one managed to lose both endorsements.
4. It doesn't, as only a few of the Ciotti candidates are actually current members of the party, most of them are lapsed members, never were members or are former members of the RN (or even FN), rather.

[Logical]

Ifop rolling

RN+UXD : 36% (+0,5)
NFP : 29,5% (+0,5)
Macronista : 20,5% (-0,5)
LR : 7%

Seats

RN+UXD : 220-260
NFP : 185-215
Macronista : 70-100
LR : 30-50
DVG : 6-10
Others : 3-7