French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Glucksmann shows no intention of recreating NUPES.

[S019]

I'm really sorry for the stupid question, but who would be likeliest to become PM in the event that RN fell short of a majority and LR either refused to work with them or RN+LR+REC+etc. was also short? Would Attal try for another mandate, would it be someone else, or would there just be political paralysis?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm really sorry for the stupid question, but who would be likeliest to become PM in the event that RN fell short of a majority and LR either refused to work with them or RN+LR+REC+etc. was also short? Would Attal try for another mandate, would it be someone else, or would there just be political paralysis?

We don't know. There isn't really any script for what should happen in a truly hung parliament under the Fifth Republic, since it's not really something that's happened before. The key thing to keep in mind though is that the first move belongs to the President, and it will be up to Parliament to present a no-confidence motion against the PM if they don't like him. So Macron could just keep Attal, and dare the non-RN opposition to vote him down and potentially get Bardella instead. That might be effective as blackmail, though it won't make parliament any less ungovernable.

[lfromnj]

RN+REC+the two small random far right parties sum up to 38%. Add in LR and its 45%. Obviously these parties can have varying bases. Upper class REC/LR voters have a pretty decent chance of voting against a more populist RN candidate in the runoff and working class RN voters may not like LR/RN

[Mike88]

When you think your own country's politics is the worse, just remember France.

This is going to end badly...

[Estrella]

MEP from Glucksmann's party:

"This is not an agreement, just an opening of discussion which allowed us to set our conditions including:
- clearly pro-European line
- unwavering support for the Ukrainian resistance and the delivery of weapons
- the rejection of the brutalization of political life and slander"

https://twitter.com/AuroreLalucq/status/1800283329507573988

The "unwavering support for the Ukrainian resistance" is obviously not happening with LFI involved, considering that the f/cking RN is now probably more pro-Ukraine than them.

[Zinneke]

MEP from Glucksmann's party:

"This is not an agreement, just an opening of discussion which allowed us to set our conditions including:
- clearly pro-European line
- unwavering support for the Ukrainian resistance and the delivery of weapons
- the rejection of the brutalization of political life and slander"

https://twitter.com/AuroreLalucq/status/1800283329507573988

The "unwavering support for the Ukrainian resistance" is obviously not happening with LFI involved, considering that the f/cking RN is now probably more pro-Ukraine than them.

Even if they do commit to these principles, I don't trust most of LFI's figures to follow through with them, instead doing the classic teenage rebellious stunts that cost the Western Left immeasurable credibility in loads of countries now.

Just leave them to run their sideshow and people will vote tactically. Hopefully.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: French Bonds Tumble Most Since 2020 on Macron Resignation Rumors

There are rumors that Macron might resign if his bloc does poorly in the upcoming elections.  French bonds falls on this news.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just leave them to run their sideshow and people will vote tactically. Hopefully.

This is no time for gambling. It's f**king ridiculous to hand-wring about Mélenchon's antics when we're on the verge of Bardella as PM. When fascists are at the gates, the left must unite - no ifs or buts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ciotti comes out in support of a deal with RN. Wow.

Gaullism with Pétainist characteristics, I guess.

[Zinneke]

Just leave them to run their sideshow and people will vote tactically. Hopefully.

This is no time for gambling. It's f**king ridiculous to hand-wring about Mélenchon's antics when we're on the verge of Bardella as PM. When fascists are at the gates, the left must unite - no ifs or buts.

I understand your perspective, I'm not trying to be secterian on an ideological level and I think it's important to get someone like Rufin and also as many pure anticapitalists as possible in a new alliance, but I really think given how high the stakes are and how polarising and caricatural some of the campaign acts LFI do are, some need to be left by the wayside.

Bardella as PM will be a sh**t show, RN have no economic program, it's full of incohérences...maybe Macron's gamble to let people see what an RN premiership entails might actually work, and the Left can set itself up for a strong campaign in 2027. But yes, I know that I'm kind of privileged being able to think this way. My french friends in Brussels are all very anxious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just leave them to run their sideshow and people will vote tactically. Hopefully.

This is no time for gambling. It's f**king ridiculous to hand-wring about Mélenchon's antics when we're on the verge of Bardella as PM. When fascists are at the gates, the left must unite - no ifs or buts.

I understand your perspective, I'm not trying to be sectetian on an ideological level and I think it's important to get someone like Rufin and also as many pure anticapitalists as possible in a new alliance, but I really think given how high the stakes are and how polarising and caricatural some of the campaign acts LFI do are, some need to be left by the wayside.

Bardella as PM will be a sh**t show, RN have no economic program, it's full of incohérences...maybe Macron's gamble to let people see what an RN premiership entails might actually work, and the Left can set itself up for a strong campaign in 2027. But yes, I know that I'm kind of privileged being able to think this way. My french friends in Brussels are all very anxious.

I think the solution to this is pretty simple: have an electoral agreement, but leave each party to run their own campaigns. The problem with NUPES was that it handed the campaigning over to LFI in the name of the whole left. Obviously we don't want to do that again. I want the non-Mélenchon left to make its voice heard this time. LFI cannot be shut up, so they will be a nuisance no matter what, but at least this way they will not be the only voice on the left.

[Zinneke]

Eric Ciotto is announcing that LR wants to make an alliance with RN. Not sure he speaks on behalf of the whole of LR though.

https://twitter.com/YaelBRAUNPIVET/status/1800488375306330456

[Antonio the Sixth]

Eric Ciotto is announcing that LR wants to make an alliance with RN. Not sure he speaks on behalf of the whole of LR though.

https://twitter.com/YaelBRAUNPIVET/status/1800488375306330456

Already posted about it, but thanks for the tweet. I'm honestly glad Chirac isn't alive to see this. Say what you will about the old crook, but he wouldn't have stood for this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At least it seems Ciotti's announcement is not going down well with a lot of LR bigwigs. Lots of calls for him to resign.

I don't know how the party survives this.

[Sir John Johns]

Yeah, looks like Ciotti’s idea of combining the Gaullist Cross of Lorraine with the tricolor flame of the über-kollabo Marcel Déat’s party isn’t well-received inside LR. Here a reaction from a LR deputy close to Xavier Bertrand.

https://twitter.com/JulienDive/status/1800486734247195052

We know now that in June 1940, Éric Ciotti would never had cross the Channel.

#Resistance

It’s true than while De Gaulle was in London in June 1940, Déat was in Sigmaringen in 1945.



And yes, unbelievable how such the direct inspiration of the RN from the worst collaborator party is nowhere to be discussed in the French medias. This is what happened when you decided that amnesia is the best way to deal with France's 1940 collective moral bankruptcy, I guess.

[Sir John Johns]

Gérard Larcher is demanding the resignation of Ciotti from the presidency of LR. Jesus what a ing joke party.

https://twitter.com/gerard_larcher/status/1800491355690696744

Meanwhile, Carole Delga, a leader of the strongly anti-LFI wing of the PS who supported dissident PS candidacies against the NUPES back in 2022 has expressed her support to the idea of a Popular Front uniting left-wing parties.

[jaichind]

If the chaos in LR causes it to fall apart does not help RN and ENS in the first round?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Deeply scary that the far rights are the gates of power, instructive to how stupid the constant anglophone refrain that violent riots are a useful political tool in liberal democracies seen online.

[KaiserDave]

I sincerely hope that a Popular Front of all socialist, social democratic, and progressives forces is constituted to oppose the threat of the far-right which Macronisme has clearly proven incapable of addressing.

Question, will R! be included in an alliance with RN and LR? If so, LR may just implode entirely.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bloomberg: French Bonds Tumble Most Since 2020 on Macron Resignation Rumors

There are rumors that Macron might resign if his bloc does poorly in the upcoming elections.  French bonds falls on this news.

Macron isn't going to resign.

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

[Sir Mohamed]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

Yup, that was the case when DeGaulle resigned in 1969 and his successor Pompidou died in office in 1974.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Question, will R! be included in an alliance with RN and LR? If so, LR may just implode entirely.

Talks between Maréchal and Bardella just ended without an agreement, so it seems Reconquête will have to go it alone.

Also, most of LR (including the incumbent MPs who would be the beneficiaries of an alliance) are in open revolt against Ciotti and have said they want nothing to do with RN. So it seems we're looking at at most a few dozen MPs will have the RN's blessing.

[lfromnj]

Doesn’t Macron resigning mean new presidential elections ?

Yup, that was the case when DeGaulle resigned in 1969 and his successor Pompidou died in office in 1974.

So does it reset the presidential term as well?