French National Assembly Elections, 06/30-07/07

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I won't pretend to know much about French politics, but am I correct in observing that an election in three weeks would be pretty bad for the left, especially with the two-round system making vote splitting (RN+LREM get into second round after PS and LFI split the left-wing vote, etc) a serious concern and PS's outstanding performance in the EU elections making Melenchon a lot less of an undisputed left-wing leader?

The left is definitely screwed if it doesn't unify fast - which is of course going to be a huge challenge. The NUPES took 12 days to negotiate. We obviously won't have that much time now. And it's going to be difficult to deal with a Mélenchon who still thinks he owns the left despite his party having been halved since 2022. The good news is that all the leaders have called for unity, and seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Whether that's enough motivation to come to a reasonable agreement, we shall find out soon.

Well, the good news is that left-wing leaders are already meeting today. We'll see what comes out of that. The candidacy deadline is this Friday, so it's a good thing everyone sees the urgency.

Are there any particular disagreements that you could see sinking the entire NUPES 2.0 project? I'd think Ukraine might be up there, but again I don't know much about internal French politics.

[Zinneke]

I won't pretend to know much about French politics, but am I correct in observing that an election in three weeks would be pretty bad for the left, especially with the two-round system making vote splitting (RN+LREM get into second round after PS and LFI split the left-wing vote, etc) a serious concern and PS's outstanding performance in the EU elections making Melenchon a lot less of an undisputed left-wing leader?

The left is definitely screwed if it doesn't unify fast - which is of course going to be a huge challenge. The NUPES took 12 days to negotiate. We obviously won't have that much time now. And it's going to be difficult to deal with a Mélenchon who still thinks he owns the left despite his party having been halved since 2022. The good news is that all the leaders have called for unity, and seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Whether that's enough motivation to come to a reasonable agreement, we shall find out soon.

Well, the good news is that left-wing leaders are already meeting today. We'll see what comes out of that. The candidacy deadline is this Friday, so it's a good thing everyone sees the urgency.

Are there any particular disagreements that you could see sinking the entire NUPES 2.0 project? I'd think Ukraine might be up there, but again I don't know much about internal French politics.

The personality of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

[Zinneke]

Not sure if mentioned yet but another way this is really a sh**tty move by Macron is that he has likely exploded the legislation on euthanasia at the end of life by doing this, which campaigners had worked really hard on, to ensure people can pass with dignity.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't pretend to know much about French politics, but am I correct in observing that an election in three weeks would be pretty bad for the left, especially with the two-round system making vote splitting (RN+LREM get into second round after PS and LFI split the left-wing vote, etc) a serious concern and PS's outstanding performance in the EU elections making Melenchon a lot less of an undisputed left-wing leader?

The left is definitely screwed if it doesn't unify fast - which is of course going to be a huge challenge. The NUPES took 12 days to negotiate. We obviously won't have that much time now. And it's going to be difficult to deal with a Mélenchon who still thinks he owns the left despite his party having been halved since 2022. The good news is that all the leaders have called for unity, and seem to understand the gravity of the situation. Whether that's enough motivation to come to a reasonable agreement, we shall find out soon.

Well, the good news is that left-wing leaders are already meeting today. We'll see what comes out of that. The candidacy deadline is this Friday, so it's a good thing everyone sees the urgency.

Are there any particular disagreements that you could see sinking the entire NUPES 2.0 project? I'd think Ukraine might be up there, but again I don't know much about internal French politics.

I think matters of ego are gonna be a bigger sticking point than any issue disagreements. The parties know what they agree and disagree on, and there doesn't need to be full agreement for the sake of an electoral alliance. The core problem is that Mélenchon still sees himself as the leader of the French left, and PS and EELV are increasingly unwilling to accept that given how toxic he is to moderate voters and LFI's decline in the past couple years. So a new NUPES or popular front or whatever they end up calling it should have LFI as a partner but not as the de facto leader.

[GoTfan]

I think Macron might be trying to gamble that RN's populism makes them collapse under the weight of being a governing party. Bit risky if you ask me.

[Open Source Intelligence]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

The election dates, June 30th and July 7th.

Yes, that's right. Just three weeks of campaigning.

And no one except presumably Macron's party were prepared.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What do the numbers in the thread title mean?

The election dates, June 30th and July 7th.

Yes, that's right. Just three weeks of campaigning.

And no one except presumably Macron's party were prepared.

Judging by the reactions, it's not clear at all that Macron's party was prepared. Macron seems to have taken a page from Sunak's playbook here.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Yeah, this is Macron gambling that people will get cold feet about voting for the RN in an election that actually matters - and thus will grant him a whole new mandate by default. Unfortunately I think he's wrong.

Agreed. Not sure whether he has to name a RN prime minister then, but the election probably makes him an even more lame duck than he already was. A bad day for EU when France is increasingly not to govern.

If RN wins an absolute majority, he will have to appoint Bardella, or else trigger a constitutional crisis. If RN just wins a plurality, things can get really tricky. Still hard to see what alternative coalition he could cobble together.

Do you think there's any scenario here in which Macron resigns?

He wants to be EU President right? That spot is getting elected pretty soon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would he give up an actually powerful post for... that?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Why would he give up an actually powerful post for... that?

You have a more prestigious sounding job for less responsibility. It allows him to fall upward without having to lose. Besides, it's not like anyone thinks Von der Leyen is this great talent.

He's stated in the past he'd like the job and he clearly sees himself as "Europe's foremost leader" because the UK said "f#ck you!" to the place and Germany can't figure out what the hell they're doing. Now whether other international leaders would want Macron running the EU is an entirely different proposition.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

[Oryxslayer]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, at this point it seems more likely than not that PS, EELV and PCF will come to some type of agreement. The harder nut to crack is LFI. Hopefully after today we'll have a better sense of where they stand.

[Sir Mohamed]

Almost seems like Macron completely lost it. This is a massive gamble and regardless which realistic outcome there is, he will almost certainly end up as a lame duck after the election.

Macron is potentially opening the door for the extreme right to gain power in France. Imho, his absolute over-confidence in his party's ability to win a majority in new elections seems pretty arrogant and detached from reality. The possibility of a right-wing government led by the RN is described as a nightmare scenario for the entire EU. That said, I have little confidence in the left getting its act together and offer a real and pragmatic alternative. Especially since the French left seems so divided. Dark times ahead it seems.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Yeah, at this point it seems more likely than not that PS, EELV and PCF will come to some type of agreement. The harder nut to crack is LFI. Hopefully after today we'll have a better sense of where they stand.

Tbh if i were french and Melenchon is being a d*** again i would vote PS-EELV-PCF in first round. If there's no NUPES 2.0 i'll blame the one who obstructs it from happening.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Judging by the reactions, it's not clear at all that Macron's party was prepared. Macron seems to have taken a page from Sunak's playbook here.

At least he didn't announce it in the rain without an umbrella...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have a more prestigious sounding job for less responsibility. It allows him to fall upward without having to lose. Besides, it's not like anyone thinks Von der Leyen is this great talent.

To a patriotic Frenchman, there is no job more prestigious than 'President of France'. And to be President of the Commission would, aha, certainly not be seen as a promotion. It's more a place where politicians from large member states who once dreamed of national leadership but didn't make it or who did but failed at it end up. That and defeated national leaders from small member states.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Still interesting that PS has overtaken LFI. Probably the best hope for those hoping for an anti Le pen win in 2027. Macrons party will have a lot of anti incumbency riding against them while LFI is more unpalatable to the median French voter than Le pen. PS might have a social democratic argument and Hollande will be forgotten about by that point.

[Battista Minola 1616]

You have a more prestigious sounding job for less responsibility. It allows him to fall upward without having to lose. Besides, it's not like anyone thinks Von der Leyen is this great talent.

To a patriotic Frenchman, there is no job more prestigious than 'President of France'. And to be President of the Commission would, aha, certainly not be seen as a promotion. It's more a place where politicians from large member states who once dreamed of national leadership but didn't make it or who did but failed at it end up. That and defeated national leaders from small member states.

Sometimes ones who did make it again afterwards and (were) failed a second time...

[Hash]

The decree for the elections has been published. The candidacy declaration deadline will be on Sunday at 6pm, and the official 14 day campaign will be from June 17.

Unlike in the past, the first round in the expat seats will not be held a week before the rest of the country, although there will still be internet voting for those seats open from the Tuesday preceding the election (thankfully for me, since I'll be out of town the last weekend of June).

[DL]

Seems to me that n underreported story in France was the comeback of the PS under the leadership of Glucksmann who seems like a very attractive leader. This could be an opportunity for him to now sideline that toxic Melenchon once and for all a create a palatable and attractive left of centre option in the 2027 presidential election

[MaxQue]

Seems to me that n underreported story in France was the comeback of the PS under the leadership of Glucksmann who seems like a very attractive leader. This could be an opportunity for him to now sideline that toxic Melenchon once and for all a create a palatable and attractive left of centre option in the 2027 presidential election

The main problem there is, of course, is that Glucksmann isn't a member of the PS, but rather from their European election ally Place Publique.

[lfromnj]

So if NUPES negotiations fail will PS be willing to work with Macron?

At this point absolutely not. Macron would have to do a serious u-turn, and while stranger things have happened,  I would not count on it.  Maybe later after the results in a coalition,  but again,  that's not how Macron likes to do things.

At this stage if Melenchon and PS can't come to a deal, then it's far more likely the traditional parties of the Left run as their own alliance. LFI is really just Melenchons show, and he has never been an electoral asset unless the contest can be presidentialized with his personality.  He was able to do that in the 2022 legislatives, but with such a short time window it doesn't seem viable.

Yeah I think the bigger thing is that if say Parliament is fairly similar in composition Macron will have more leeway to work with the left rather than being forced to work with LR.

[kaoras]

Seems to me that n underreported story in France was the comeback of the PS under the leadership of Glucksmann who seems like a very attractive leader. This could be an opportunity for him to now sideline that toxic Melenchon once and for all a create a palatable and attractive left of centre option in the 2027 presidential election

But Glucksmann, who is not a member of PS, already led the list in 2019 when they got 6%, so I don't think he is a big electoral asset by himself.

[Storr]

Almost seems like Macron completely lost it. This is a massive gamble and regardless which realistic outcome there is, he will almost certainly end up as a lame duck after the election

"Macron is potentially opening the door for the extreme right to gain power in France. Imho, his absolute over-confidence in his party's ability to win a majority in new elections seems pretty arrogant and detached from reality. The possibility of a right-wing government led by the RN is described as a nightmare scenario for the entire EU. That said, I have little confidence in the left getting its act together and offer a real and pragmatic alternative. Especially since the French left seems so divided. Dark times ahead it seems.

This a decent (I guess) positive spin on Macron's decision:

"Macron's decision to dissolve the assembly and call new elections is smart and the right move.  Either the incoherence of the RN program becomes clear during the campaign and it loses the election.  Or the RN wins, gets to govern and quickly makes a mess of it. In this case, we get two bad years, compared to five if they won the 2027 elections.

My thoughts on this are:
1) It's three years, not two until the Presidential election in April 2027
2) what if RN wins in July and public mood ends up being "RN actually isn't that bad at governing", so Le Pen wins in 2027? That isn't an implausible scenario and Macron will have sacrificed three years of governance (having the Presidency + National Assembly minority government) for nothing.