OH (NPA): Brown +6

[Left Wing]

https://twitter.com/NatPubAffairs/status/1798362642324885672

[TML]

Well, well, well...yet another poll showing Brown running ahead of the presidential ticket by double digits. Back in 2012, most polls containing both the presidential and senate races had Brown only running ahead of Obama by single digits, and that ended up being reflected in the final results. We should keep observing future polls, but if more polls like this come out, we should be prepared for the likelihood of Brown outrunning Biden by a magnitude similar to how much he outran Cordray in 2018.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Good poll for Brown (first time I've seen him crack 50), though I'd be surprised if the presidential margin stays the same as it was in 2020.

[DaleCooper]

If Biden is getting 46% in Ohio then he's winning all the swing states he needs to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good poll

[windjammer]

I really want to believe this...

[Horus]

I really want to believe this...

I completely believe it. Sherrod is one of the few Dems left able to reach the WWC, and Moreno is an empty suit who doesn't really have a base in the state.

[SnowLabrador]

Good poll for Brown. Whether it will last is another question.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Actually quite encouraging.

Wait, I mean, fake poll! Safe Moreno!

[Yoda]

A lot of people ave been waaay too bullish on Brown losing. Moreno doesn't have the chops to bring him down. He uses a mountain of personal wealth to put out boilerplate Republican talking points/lies that don't convert a single wing/dem voter, while Brown's ads are full of sheriffs and union guys talking about how Brown is personally responsible for passing legislation that has helped them in their careers and kept communities safe.

[Pericles]

Damn, this margin isn't just caused by undecideds either. A good sign.

It would be hilarious if Ohio's margin is actually stagnant for all three Trump-era elections.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

that presidential margin is pretty damn believable too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH is R but Vance got in only due to DeWibe not the other way around, that's why Brown is overperform no DeWine

[Francisco]

I really doubt this poll because I don't see Biden getting 46% in Ohio, Trump is going to win Ohio by double digits.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good starter, though I expect Brown to win by 2-3 pts. at best. But keep in mind, early OH polls were always rosy for Dems. If that holds up to October, he's in decent shape.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No DeWine pulled Vance thru since there is no DeWine no R victory

[TML]

Good starter, though I expect Brown to win by 2-3 pts. at best. But keep in mind, early OH polls were always rosy for Dems. If that holds up to October, he's in decent shape.

As I mentioned earlier, a more important number to pay attention to is the magnitude in which Brown is running ahead of (or behind) the presidential ticket. Back during the last several months before the 2012 election, polls consistently showed Brown only outrunning Obama by low single digits, which was consistent with him actually performing 3 points better than Obama. This particular poll has Brown outrunning Biden by double digits, so we need to see if this magnitude of ticket splitting continues to show up in polls later this year. If polls later this year consistently show Brown outrunning Biden by high single digits or double digits, the he can probably survive Trump winning OH by a margin similar to his 2016 & 2020 victories here; on the other hand, if polls later this year show him only outrunning Biden by low-to-mid single digits (or, worse yet, running behind Biden), then it would be time to panic on his reelection chances.

[President Johnson]

Robust poll for Brown. I don't get my hopes up too early, though, as Ohio polling always looked better over the summer.

Tossup remains tossup.