What would convince you that Biden is favored to win?

[Tekken_Guy]

A counterthread to the one about Trump.

[MillennialModerate]

At this point it seems so baked in - and the fact Trump usually out performs polls by a decent amount. It would take a serious turn of events….

MULTIPLE polls from a broad range of outlets showing Biden ahead by 5-6 points nationally and by mid-single digits in 3 out of the 4 (AZ, GA, PA, MI) -

The lefties quiet down on gaza

and the inflation numbers drop through the floor, interest rates go down (2 cuts would be nice) and gas prices go below $3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point it seems so baked in - and the fact Trump usually out performs polls by a decent amount. It would take a serious turn of events….

MULTIPLE polls from a broad range of outlets showing Biden ahead by 5-6 points nationally and by mid-single digits in 3 out of the 4 (AZ, GA, PA, MI) -

The lefties quiet down on gaza

and the inflation numbers drop through the floor, interest rates go down (2 cuts would be nice) and gas prices go below $3.

Lol Rs didn't outperform polls in 22 they lost

[SnowLabrador]

Polls routinely finding Biden in the lead by at least 5-6 points nationally, which is what it takes both to survive Trump's Electoral College advantage and a likely polling error in Trump's favor.

[E-Dawg]

Polls routinely finding Biden in the lead by at least 5-6 points nationally, which is what it takes both to survive Trump's Electoral College advantage and a likely polling error in Trump's favor.

I think Trump is going to win, but based on the polling from 2022 midterms and the 2024 GOP primaries, it appears just as likely that there could be a polling error in Biden's favor.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Polls routinely finding Biden in the lead by at least 5-6 points nationally, which is what it takes both to survive Trump's Electoral College advantage and a likely polling error in Trump's favor.

I think Trump is going to win, but based on the polling from 2022 midterms and the 2024 GOP primaries, it appears just as likely that there could be a polling error in Biden's favor.

According to averages, if there is even an error 1.5 points in Biden’s favour he wins.

[BlueSwan]

Polls like in 2020.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If he can get his approvals to average 45% or better, I’ll start getting nervous. He probably really needs to be north of 47%, but I’ll give him 45.

He’s going nowhere with JA stuck in the mid to upper 30s.

[Obama24]

Polls improving.

perception of the economy drastically improving by September

Stellar debate performances that articulate a message the American people that isn't just "I'm not Trump." Give non-partisan Americans an idea of why you deserve a second term.

More public appearances. Less softball interviews.

If the Israel-Gaza War is over before September

[Xing]

Polls which look slightly better than they did in 2022, perhaps showing him a few points ahead in MI/PA/WI, and even or only narrowly behind in AZ/GA/NV. Note: Favored =/= Certain to win.

[Crumpets]

It really wouldn't take much. An across-the-board improvement of maybe 2-3 points nationally would do it, which is less than he's already improved since winter. Trump getting convicted of at least one felony count and a sustained ceasefire in Gaza would more than cover that ground, I expect.

[Torie]

Faith that voters have not lost their minds.

[Dumbo]

- VP Harris is replaced by Gov. Roy Cooper in the next days or weeks
- Biden gets very sick in September
- Cooper is running the election campaign in September, October
- Biden wins the election but dies as expected some days or weeks later

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Milineal Moderate he keeps repeating himself and his Pred about AZ was totally wrong in 22

[Ljube]

Nothing.

Biden is in such a bad shape that I cannot understand who could vote for him, other than hardened partisans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing.

Biden is in such a bad shape that I cannot understand who could vote for him, other than hardened partisans.

Lol

[Obama24]

Nothing.

Biden is in such a bad shape that I cannot understand who could vote for him, other than hardened partisans.

Anyone that does not want Donald Trump having a second term. I do not in any way, shape or form like Biden, nor do I consider myself a partisan. However, I will grudgingly vote for him in November because he is not DJT

[Mr. Smith]

- Consistent leads or ties in the battleground states.
- Minority and youth votes returning to normal at the polls.
- Another foreign conflict arises that Biden doesn't fumble, or Russia/Ukraine takes stage again.