For Republicans to win nationally, the stars seem to have to completely align

[sg0508]

With their dwindling ability to expand their base, as well as ignoring younger voting blocks (completing losing the Millennials and not doing much to attract Gen Z), as I've been thinking for the last decade, everything has to go right and Democrats have to literally self-destruct for the GOP to win.

One could make the argument that in 2020 (outside of Covid), Trump may have won again given the economy at that time, although far from certain.

Does anyone just have "that feeling" that the stars are aligning again this year? Everything from the economy, inflation, Biden's age, the wars abroad, student protests, voter apathy, Harris, cost of living, etc. is just making a lot of people desperate, angry and vulnerable.

I've been saying for several months now (as have others on here) that the Democrats (like it or not), MUST use abortion as their driving force to ensure women and young voters show up to vote. It worked in 2022, it worked in "pocket", one-off elections since, including 2023, and I believe it's the key for 2024.

There's been signs in the last month that talking about Dobbs again re-energized some and moved the polls towards Biden.

Thoughts? are the stars just aligning, too early to tell, or total nonsense?

[iceman]

Oh please. Seriously? Abortion is not the most important issue for the general electorate, especially in a presidential year. Why can’t the campagins on both sides focus on kitchen table issues, those have more impact with the public.

[Umengus]

With their dwindling ability to expand their base, as well as ignoring younger voting blocks (completing losing the Millennials and not doing much to attract Gen Z), as I've been thinking for the last decade, everything has to go right and Democrats have to literally self-destruct for the GOP to win.

One could make the argument that in 2020 (outside of Covid), Trump may have won again given the economy at that time, although far from certain.

Does anyone just have "that feeling" that the stars are aligning again this year? Everything from the economy, inflation, Biden's age, the wars abroad, student protests, voter apathy, Harris, cost of living, etc. is just making a lot of people desperate, angry and vulnerable.

I've been saying for several months now (as have others on here) that the Democrats (like it or not), MUST use abortion as their driving force to ensure women and young voters show up to vote. It worked in 2022, it worked in "pocket", one-off elections since, including 2023, and I believe it's the key for 2024.

There's been signs in the last month that talking about Dobbs again re-energized some and moved the polls towards Biden.

Thoughts? are the stars just aligning, too early to tell, or total nonsense?

in 2022, Gop won the "national vote" by 3 (I think) so abortion not so effective (but I agree that it gives them a few points) and, at the presidential level, with much larger turnout, it won't be enough to save Biden

[Obama24]

Disagree.

Trump probably would've won either if Covid wasn't a factor, or if he had handled it like a leader rather than going around saying crazy things.

I don't think there's some miracle that is required for him to win this year, only for Biden to fail to course correct, fail to get ahold of his image, continue to double down in favor of Netanyahu, and for the perception of the economy being weak and the dollar being weaker to continue into October.

Frankly, those factors don't seem unrealistic as of right now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Definitely not. The electoral college makes it too easy for them.

The stars probably need to align for a candidate of theirs for President to ever win the popular vote though. Not that it even matters in our asinine system.

[7,052,770]

Oh please. Seriously? Abortion is not the most important issue for the general electorate, especially in a presidential year. Why can’t the campagins on both sides focus on kitchen table issues, those have more impact with the public.

Abortion is a relevant issue to every single married couple out there with kids on their mind. Just look at the stories coming out Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, and other states that have completely outlawed the procedure, or in some cases not technically "outlawed" but have still made it 100% unavailable, and what the consequences are to women in medical emergencies.

I myself have become less interested in having another child, knowing that any potential complication could require me to go all the way to Illinois in an emergency. (And that's assuming that Republicans don't outlaw that, which they likely will if Biden loses in November.)

Republicans have been underperforming since the Dobbs decision, and are in denial of why this is an important issue to everyone who isn't an religious extremist.

[EastwoodS]

With their dwindling ability to expand their base, as well as ignoring younger voting blocks (completing losing the Millennials and not doing much to attract Gen Z), as I've been thinking for the last decade, everything has to go right and Democrats have to literally self-destruct for the GOP to win.

One could make the argument that in 2020 (outside of Covid), Trump may have won again given the economy at that time, although far from certain.

Does anyone just have "that feeling" that the stars are aligning again this year? Everything from the economy, inflation, Biden's age, the wars abroad, student protests, voter apathy, Harris, cost of living, etc. is just making a lot of people desperate, angry and vulnerable.

I've been saying for several months now (as have others on here) that the Democrats (like it or not), MUST use abortion as their driving force to ensure women and young voters show up to vote. It worked in 2022, it worked in "pocket", one-off elections since, including 2023, and I believe it's the key for 2024.

There's been signs in the last month that talking about Dobbs again re-energized some and moved the polls towards Biden.

Thoughts? are the stars just aligning, too early to tell, or total nonsense?

it's not 2013 anymore

[2016]

Oh please. Seriously? Abortion is not the most important issue for the general electorate, especially in a presidential year. Why can’t the campagins on both sides focus on kitchen table issues, those have more impact with the public.

Abortion is a relevant issue to every single married couple out there with kids on their mind. Just look at the stories coming out Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, and other states that have completely outlawed the procedure, or in some cases not technically "outlawed" but have still made it 100% unavailable, and what the consequences are to women in medical emergencies.

I myself have become less interested in having another child, knowing that any potential complication could require me to go all the way to Illinois in an emergency. (And that's assuming that Republicans don't outlaw that, which they likely will if Biden loses in November.)

Republicans have been underperforming since the Dobbs decision, and are in denial of why this is an important issue to everyone who isn't an religious extremist.

You are so wrong on this. @iceman is right.

Abortion is polling a 9-10 % Nationally in virtually all of the National Polls, waaaay down from the 27 % it got in 2022 according to Exit Polling we can look at.

The 2024 Election will be decided on 2 Key Issues: The Economy/Cost of Living (some people can't even afford to buy a pizza, groceries, etc. because of the insane interest rate hikes by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his cohorts) & Immigration.

[7,052,770]

Oh please. Seriously? Abortion is not the most important issue for the general electorate, especially in a presidential year. Why can’t the campagins on both sides focus on kitchen table issues, those have more impact with the public.

Abortion is a relevant issue to every single married couple out there with kids on their mind. Just look at the stories coming out Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, and other states that have completely outlawed the procedure, or in some cases not technically "outlawed" but have still made it 100% unavailable, and what the consequences are to women in medical emergencies.

I myself have become less interested in having another child, knowing that any potential complication could require me to go all the way to Illinois in an emergency. (And that's assuming that Republicans don't outlaw that, which they likely will if Biden loses in November.)

Republicans have been underperforming since the Dobbs decision, and are in denial of why this is an important issue to everyone who isn't an religious extremist.

You are so wrong on this. @iceman is right.

I guess we'll find out in November. Republicans have spent the last 3 years denying that abortion is an important issue that drives elections and then scratching their heads over losses and underperformances.

[2016]

Oh please. Seriously? Abortion is not the most important issue for the general electorate, especially in a presidential year. Why can’t the campagins on both sides focus on kitchen table issues, those have more impact with the public.

Abortion is a relevant issue to every single married couple out there with kids on their mind. Just look at the stories coming out Texas, Ohio, Mississippi, and other states that have completely outlawed the procedure, or in some cases not technically "outlawed" but have still made it 100% unavailable, and what the consequences are to women in medical emergencies.

I myself have become less interested in having another child, knowing that any potential complication could require me to go all the way to Illinois in an emergency. (And that's assuming that Republicans don't outlaw that, which they likely will if Biden loses in November.)

Republicans have been underperforming since the Dobbs decision, and are in denial of why this is an important issue to everyone who isn't an religious extremist.

You are so wrong on this. @iceman is right.

I guess we'll find out in November. Republicans have spent the last 3 years denying that abortion is an important issue that drives elections and then scratching their heads over losses and underperformances.

Another Lie from you. No Republican said Abortion isn't an Important Issue, it is.
But it's not an All-In Deciding Issue Democrats claim it to be.

For Abortion to really have an impact nationally it would have to poll similarly to the 2022 Midterms and it won't be that high this November.

[7,052,770]

Another Lie from you. No Republican said Abortion isn't an Important Issue, it is.

What? This board is full of blue avatars saying that exact thing over the last 3 years.

But it's not an All-In Deciding Issue Democrats claim it to be.

I never claimed it was an "all-in deciding issue," but it clearly is one that drives Democratic votes that they wouldn't otherwise get.

[2016]

Another Lie from you. No Republican said Abortion isn't an Important Issue, it is.

What? This board is full of blue avatars saying that exact thing over the last 3 years.

But it's not an All-In Deciding Issue Democrats claim it to be.

I never claimed it was an "all-in deciding issue," but it clearly is one that drives Democratic votes that they wouldn't otherwise get.

Another Lie. You continously claimed and claim to this Day that Abortion will decide the 2024 Election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't won since 2016, they're platform is wrong giving tax cuts to rich and banning abortion

[Compuzled_One]

Definitely not. The electoral college makes it too easy for them.

The stars probably need to align for a candidate of theirs for President to ever win the popular vote though. Not that it even matters in our asinine system.

I don't think that's impossible either-Trump is leading right now, and in 2016 and 2020 any non-Trump Republican (or hell, the man himself if he was more pragmatic) could've won.

[7,052,770]

Another Lie from you. No Republican said Abortion isn't an Important Issue, it is.

What? This board is full of blue avatars saying that exact thing over the last 3 years.

But it's not an All-In Deciding Issue Democrats claim it to be.

I never claimed it was an "all-in deciding issue," but it clearly is one that drives Democratic votes that they wouldn't otherwise get.

Another Lie. You continously claimed and claim to this Day that Abortion will decide the 2024 Election.

Are you doing a bit or something?